The May 29th French vote is once again in doubt. Three recent polls are reported to show a small swing towards to 'no' camp. Several observers have expressed doubt about the reliability of the unscrutinized vote in the French Overseas Territories. It was this lop-sided yes vote which secured a win for the Maastricht Treaty despite a majority voting 'no' in metropolitan France. It could happen again to give President Chirac his victory.

The French are in two minds. Opponents say that a yes note will confirm the subjugation of France to the rule of perfidious Albion with its liberal, free-market values. Supporters, including the President, say that, au contraire, a yes vote will embed French social values into the EU at large.

We already know that the UK vote will not be a fair one. Opinion polling showed that the actual wording of the question would influence the result, and the question to be asked was only decided by the government after it had tested the response of focus groups and sample voters.

The selected wording is "Should the United Kingdom approve the treaty establishing a constitution for the European Union?" This option gives the highest likelihood of a yes vote. It looks very much as though this will never be tested, however. Either the French on May 29th, or the Dutch three days later, could save us the trouble.