One generation passeth away and another generation cometh (Eccl 1:4). It is happening in Europe before our eyes. President Chirac and Chancellor Shroeder, whose alliance did so much to set the lead and the direction of the EU, are in the home stretch now. In both cases they seem likely to be replaced by more Atlanticist, free-market successors.

But it is not just the leaders who are changing. One vision of Europe has been passing away. It is the politically united Europe with strong central institutions modeled on the French state, and with social guarantees which lie in the continental tradition. That Europe, which was to stand up against America as at least an equal, would have had its president, ambassadors, army, and tax regime. It will never happen.

The new vision of Europe which is replacing it is less of a political force, but with a stronger, more vibrant economy. It is a Europe which can prosper in a world which includes China and India among its economic drivers. It will do so by reducing its taxes, subsidies and regulations, and by trading more openly and honestly. It will recognize the part which incentives and motivation play in economic expansion.

Experts and analysts are already placing the origins of the new Europe in John Major's long game, which bought time for Britain in opt-outs, while steady expansion tilted the EU balance to the UK view. It was indeed some time in coming, but the speed with which it has emerged looks more like a rout than an orderly transition. As the dust and smoke clear from the field, Tony Blair, who was UK champion of the 'ever closer union' centralizers, has emerged as leader of the skeptic forces, scattering and slaying the federalists. Anatole Kaletsky (Times) attributes some of this to luck, but more to Blair’s ability to bend luck his way.

Either way, it is a new Europe we are looking at. There will be a rearguard action to defend subsidies and regulations and the old ways of thinking, but it will lose. The new Europe seems set to be fashioned in Britain's image, and to have Britain as its leader. Not at the heart of Europe, but at the head of it.