Although some commentators suggest that hurricane Katrina will have a bigger economic impact than 9/11, there are many reasons why it need not. Anatole Kaletsky (Times) sees the US economy as robust enough to withstand the shock without much difficulty, and thinks the main threat will be to the eurozone economies.

the US, a powerful economy with annual output worth over $11 trillion (£6 trillion), growing at 3 to 4 per cent, locked through free trade and deregulated financial markets into a global economy that produces at a $50 trillion annual rate, will hardly miss a beat from the $50 billion losses estimated along the Gulf Coast.

There will be a slowdown caused by the drop in production and consumption in the area, but this will soon be regained by faster growth. There will be a surge in spending on construction and on flood defences, and the US deficit might rise a little. Lost oil production will be offset to some degree by the release of international reserves, and since energy prices are not part of the US core inflation index, they need not change monetary policy.

Why does Kaletsky see danger for Europe? Some of it lies with the central bank. Energy is included in their inflation measure, so higher oil prices will make interest rate cuts less likely. And Kaletsky sees the eurozone as finely balanced between a fall back into recession and a fragile recovery. The impact of higher oil prices and a fall in consumer confidence might tip the balance downwards.

A eurozone recovery depends to some extent on their embrace of more economic flexibility and freer labour markets, prompted by the election of Merkel in Germany, and, later, of Sarkozy in France. Kaletsky suggests that the hurricane and its disorderly aftermath might even influence those elections. What the eurozone seems unable to grasp is that the necessary reforms are most likely to occur in a growing economy with active monetary management, as was true of 1980s Britain. When individual members of the zone lack monetary autonomy, they lack one of the ingredients of successful reform. Katrina, from which the US should recover with scarcely a flicker, could undermine the fragile recovery which some see in the eurozone countries.