I took some of the ASI staff hot air ballooning yesterday evening. It made a change from the hot air that nowadays surrounds public policy. Steve Bettison, Sam Nguyen and Xander Stephenson are pictured.

Sam climbs in

Take-off over the Berkshire countryside

Steve takes the photos

The view from on high

Coming down for a smooth landing

Xander climbs out (and finds the cow-pat)

A pretty magic trip into the clouds of a summer evening. The flight managed to fit itself between rain showers. We flew with Floating Sensations.

On Thursday we are hosting some of Britain's leading psephologists - opinion pollsters to you and me - to hear them explain the trends that came out of the recent general election here.

It is remarkable that most of the polls started the campaign predicting something like a Labour majority of 60; then the odds widened, with predictions of 100 majority and more; then on the last day they closed again to predict something very like the outcome, in the 60s.

This is pretty weird. Perhaps there is an amount of dissembling going on. Politicians have lied to us for so long, perhaps we have started to lie to them, and not tell them our true voting intentions until it's too late to make a difference.

This campaign was fought more than any previous one in the marginal seats - and with the marginal voters. All the parties had software to help them identify the 600,000 or so swing voters who would make the difference, and to be able to focus specific messages direct to them. That makes it hard for national polls to pick up the tiny but vital details of what is happening with specific voters in specific seats.

All in all, I was surprised the pollsters called it so accurately, on the last day, at least. As election technology gets more and more sophisticated, though, I wonder how accurate the polls will remain.

John Lloyd of the FT (left), Alex Singleton (centre) and TV producer Eben Wilson (right) at the ASI seminar on Politics and the media. John Lloyd explored the consequences of the fact that many media outlets, both print and broadcast, are now part of entertainment empires. Politics has become increasingly treated as part of the entertainment business, he told the ASI audience, with combative display replacing serious informational content.

Eben Wilson examined the notion of public service broadcasting, and found himself unable to understand why it should be treated as a special category, or be provided by those who were thought better than others to say what it was. He expressed the view that a BBC supported out of public funds was a distorting influence on the service provided by the broadcast media.

Discussion among the audience followed the presentations, and continued during the champagne reception afterwards.

Following last autumn’s ASI seminar on blogging, the institute now puts the spotlight on the mainstream media. It is holding a seminar on Monday March 14th on the changing relationship between print and broadcast media, the political world and the informed public at large. The speakers include John Lloyd, editor of the Financial Times magazine, and Nick Robinson, the political editor for ITV News.

John Lloyd, who will open the discussion, has developed through a series of insightful articles and speeches an expertise on the interaction between the modern worlds of media and politics. Specifically, he has written that the media and its celebrities have positioned themselves as superior, morally, socially and financially, to the political class they are supposed to report.

He touches on this theme in a column in the current FT magazine, dealing with the self-promotion of Christiane Amanpour, the world’s highest-paid reporter, in a CNN commercial depicting herself as brave, investigative and caring. He writes:

This kind of stuff confirms one of journalism’s most treacherous trends. That is, moral superiority: its steely determination to take the moral high ground and deny it to everyone else, especially the political class - except to the wretched of the earth, on whom it bestows the benediction of its sympathy and attention, and to whom it attributes a moral purity which Christian tradition made the prerequisite of the poor.

Space at the seminar, which will take place in the ASI’s Westminster offices, is limited. Those wishing to apply for a place are asked to e-mail events@adamsmith.org

The event, which opens at 6.00 pm for a prompt 6.30 pm start, will be followed by a champagne reception.

President Bush's visit to Europe was largely a failure, according to international economic consultant and Sunday Times author Irwin Stelzer at an Adam Smith Institute Power Lunch in Westminster today.

The only useful thing from the trip was the Bush-Putin meeting, where the relationship proved sufficiently strong that Bush could tell Putin some home truths without things breaking down. But the White House is disappointed that despite the President's overtures of good faith, he came away with no meaningful concessions from Europe over foreign policy or the proposed resumption of arms sales to China.

Irwin Stelzer (right) and former Downing Street adviser Lord Powell

Guests at the Power Lunch, including (left to right) Michael Wilson (Sky News), Eamonn Butler (ASI), Keith Boyfield (author), Alan Duncan MP, Michael Ancram MP

For our first Next Generation lecture of 2005, author and investigative journalist Tessa Mayes spoke on free speech.

Her talk made the case that law should not be used to limit free speech, even - controversially - if it means that people like Maxine Carr will be in danger. She argued that although a person's privacy should be protected, this does not mean people should be unable to talk about them.

She said that the main difference between invading privacy and having free speech is that in order to invade someones privacy, there must be some kind of "bond of trust" which is broken. If a journalist then gets hold of leaked information, there is no law to stop them from writing about it. Whereas if a person signs an agreement not to talk about a certain subject and does, then the law should intervene.

Tessa Mayes writes for Sp!ked Online and the Sunday Times. Her book is titled "Restraint or Revelation? Free speech and privacy in a confessional age."

Alan Greenspan - the Chairman of the US Federal Research - gave the Adam Smith Lecture in Kirkcaldy at the weekend. You can read the full text here. In his speech, he praised Adam Smith's contribution to, and support of, free-market economics:

Perhaps if the Wealth of Nations had never been written, the Industrial Revolution would still have proceeded into the nineteenth century at an impressive pace. But without Smith's demonstration of the inherent stability and growth of what we now term free-market capitalism, the remarkable advance of material well-being for whole nations might well have been quashed.

Nearly 70 people attended the ASI last night to mark 100 years since the birth of Ayn Rand. She was a fiction author and philosopher whose book Atlas Shrugged has been rated the second most influential book in America. Andrew Medworth gave an introduction to her life and works, Kenneth Irvine spoke on her moral case for capitalism, Dr Elaine Sternberg spoke on her philosophy and Tom Burroughes spoke on her conception of art. After a Q&A session, the event finished off with a champagne reception.

Tom Burroughes with libertarian rocker Andrew Dodge.

Philosophers Dr Elaine Sternberg and Prof. Antony Flew

Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, is to deliver the Adam Smith lecture at Kirkcaldy in Scotland, Smith's birthplace, on Sunday February 6th. The visit coincides with Edinburgh University's award of an honorary degree to Mr Greenspan. Smith lived in Edinburgh and is buried there, and it is there that a statue is to be erected in his honour.

The Adam Smith lecture, under the auspices of Fife College, will be to an invited audience at St Brycedale's Church in Kirkcaldy, which was the town to which Smith returned to write An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, having already made his name with the Theory of Moral Sentiments, published in 1759.

On Wednesday February 2nd from 6.30 pm the Adam Smith Institute will host a London seminar on Ayn Rand and Objectivism. Those who wish to be invited should e-mail a request to info@adamsmith.org

The date marks the 100th anniversary of Ayn Rand's birth in St Petersburg in 1905. She arrived in New York in 1926 with $50 in her pocket, and found fame as a novelist, Hollywood scriptwriter, and as author and teacher of the philosophy of Objectivism. Through her fiction and non-fiction writings, she presented a morality of rational egoism, and wrote of protagonists who triumphed over spiritual collectivism. She is best known for The Fountainhead, made into a movie starring Gary Cooper, and for the epic novel Atlas Shrugged.

Her message combined reason, individualism, and capitalism, and though she died in 1982, she remains a powerful intellectual influence.

Space at the ASI seminar is limited.

Today marks the 80th birthday of Ralph Harris - Lord Harris of High Cross - the first Director-General of London's hugely influential free-market think-tank, the Institute of Economic Affairs.

Lots of good friends were there at his birthday bash, organized by the current D-G John Blundell and IEA staff. Including some who had come a long way - Manuel Ayau from Guatemala, Leonard Liggio from the Atlas Foundation in Virginia, Jacques Garello from France... And there were messages from around the world, including ones from the IEA's first Editorial Director, Arthur Seldon, and Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman and his wife Rose.

We had clubbed together to establish a travel fund so Ralph and his wife Josie could visit their descendents round the planet - and there was enough left over to buy him a new iBook.

True to form, another guest, Margaret Thatcher, got impatient with his clumsy efforts to open the present and tore in herself.

Our day-long sixth form conference - the Independent Seminar on the Open Society - was a roaring success. Over 200 school students attended the event which was held in an upmarket conference venue in Westminster.

The theme for the seminar was 'Britain and the World' and the aim was to challenge and discuss some of the conventional wisdom about globalization. The topics looked at subjects like the environment, poverty, economic migration and culture. The BBC's Political Editor Andrew Marr explained that his role at the BBC was much more international that he had expected and that British politics would continue to be very international. He also led a very informative Q&A session. Dr Madsen Pirie argued that the best way to defeat global poverty was through economic growth, and that to grow, a country needed to adopt 'peace, easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice'. Shadow Secretary of State for International Development Alan Duncan MP spoke on 'Britain: peace and poverty' in which he put the case for action to fight AIDS.

Howard Flight MP spoke on the future of monetary and fiscal policy in a globalized world. Reason magazine's Julian Sanchez argued that globalization's effect on culture can be seen to have both positive and negative effects, but that on balance it was good. Cultural diversity experienced by tourists visiting world cities may be on the decline, but whereas in the past people experienced a monoculture where they lived, they now experience much greater diversity in their daily lives.

Dr Elaine Sternberg spoke on the risk of a 'brain drain' from the UK through greater regulation, bad infrastructure, and poor healthcare and education. The entrepreneur William Bracken, Chief Executive of DeHavilland, spoke on 'Making yourself and the country rich'. Dr Mark Pennington argued that free markets lead to improvements to the environment. And a certain Alex Singleton made the case against 'fair trade' in coffee and other products, instead arguing that removal of the Common Agricultural Policy, better governance in coffee-producing countries, and schemes helping people to switch from coffee production would do more good.

The conference ended with a drinks reception at the Institute's offices where students chatted with some of the speakers and staff from the ASI.

Last night the ASI team celebrated Thanksgiving. We feasted on Clam Chowder, a Turkey roast, and pumpkin pie. Following tradition, the youngest ASI staffer got to decorate the tree (while being heckled), and he is pictured below admiring his handiwork.

Dr Richard Ebeling spoke at an Adam Smith Institute seminar last night. His theme was that ideas move nations. He pointed out that the ideas of Adam Smith himself, notably those showing the benefits of free trade, took over half a century to work their way through society.

People spread those ideas at a popular level. Protection was gradually linked to poverty, and even to war, as nations fought for advantage. The free trade movement spread through Britain and eventually culminated in the repeal of the corn laws in 1846.

Dr Ebeling suggested that socialism had achieved a similar victory, managing over the course of a generation, to persuade people that capitalism worked against their interest instead of to their advantage. Now, he thought, was the time for people who supported freedom and free markets to educate and to explain, and to win once again the battle for support at all levels. We could do this, he thought, because the ideas are as valid now as when Adam Smith promulgated them.

Tuesday November 16th sees the ASI’s evening discussion on Democracy and the Blogosphere. It starts at 6.15 pm (jacket & tie) in the ASI’s offices at 23 Great Smith Street, London SW1P 3BL, and is followed by a champagne reception.

The speakers will be William Heath, Perry de Havilland, Stephen Pollard and Sandy Starr.

Space is limited, so those wishing to attend should e-mail us (events@adamsmith.org) for an invitation.

Samizdata has published some photos of our dinner last night celebrating 25 years since the abolition of exchange controls, held at Westminster's St Ermin's Hotel.

(Added 24/10) Dr Eamonn Butler writes "It was a splendid occasion, with 50 of the Institute's insiders coming together to hear Lord Howe (who announced the abolition of exchange controls to the House of Commons exactly 25 years ago), and Lord Lawson (his deputy at the time, and one of the intellectual forces behind the decision).

"What came over most strongly was the sense that these policymakers were sailing through uncharted waters at the time. Exchange controls had been in place so long that nobody could imagine the world without them. Indeed, it took a while before the press and politicians had come to realize exactly what Geoffrey Howe had actually said on that momentous day. People worried that capital flows would be uncontrollable. That huge amounts of money would leach abroad. William Keegan, the prominent financial journalist, predicted that controls would have to come back within a handful of years. They were all wrong.

"Samizdata's Perry de Havilland also gave a short talk: telling how his parents used to sneak money out of the country stuffed inside his nappies! It truly is hard to believe the crazy economics of the late 1970s, when income-tax was 98 pence in the pound."

A capacity crowd approaching 200 sixth-formers came from all over the country to our summer 'ISOS' seminar in Westminster last week. The theme was 'economic and political myths' and the idea was to challenge a few of the orthodox assumptions about politics and the economy.

The sixth-formers heard an eclectic collection of speakers, including Westminster journalist Peter Oborne, BP executive Richard Ritchie, pollster Peter Kellner, 'Butterfly Economics' guru Paul Ormerod, and Alan Duncan MP. Responding to a questionnaire, nearly 40% of the participants rated the event 'excellent', and nearly 60% said it was 'good' - nobody marked it as 'poor' or worse.

Last night we held a reception to celebrate 25 years since the election of Baroness Thatcher. The Oxford and Cambridge Club was a perfect venue, but even the vast room was very packed. There was a distinctly young feel about the event: about 60 percent of those attending were not even born when Thatcher was elected. Lords Tebbit, Parkinson and Powell gave brief remarks about what it was like serve with the reforming former PM. Here are some photos.

More photos are on Samizdata.net.

Our lecture last night with Bjorn Lomborg, author of the Skeptical Environmentalist, gets write-ups on BBC News and Samizdata.

Edward Leigh MP, the chairman of Britain's Public Accounts Committee (PAC), gave a insightful Adam Smith Lecture on Tuesday. He talk was an insider's guide to the PAC, Parliament's spending watchdog, and there was a fun reception afterwards. Being technologically minded, we've put the talk up on the web. But it's a big file - 72Mb - so I wouldn't recommend you try and view it unless you have a fast internet connection. Click here to view.

You'll need QuickTime installed. Chances are that you'll have it already. If not, ring your IT department and beg, or click on the button below.

Last night was the monthly meeting of our Next Generation group. Newspaper supremo Andrew Neil gave an engaging ten-minute talk, discussing the chances of the Conservatives under Michael Howard's leadership. He said that to gain support the Conservatives need to appeal to Britain's strivers, promoting opportunities for everyone in society to get up in life.

We recorded Andrew's speech and you can watch it here as a QuickTime file. You'll need QuickTime installed. Chances are that you'll have it already. If not, nag your IT department or click on the button below.