| 100 months left.... |
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| Written by Tim Worstall | |
| Sunday, 03 August 2008 | |
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Is the message from those bright lads over at the new economics foundation (they, of course, launch their critique of capitalism by not using capitals). Unless we radically change the way we do everything then in 100 months time (wonder why 8.33 years wasn't used, maybe it doesn't have quite the same ring to it?) catastrophic climate change will be inevitable. Worth taking with a pinch of salt perhaps, as these were the people who told us that penis sheaths and worshipping the Duke of Edinburgh as a living God were the way to an earthly nirvana. Exactly what we need to put in place of the current system is a little less amusing. Taking lessons from Cuban agriculture with the low level malnutrition there doesn't sound all that wise. The compulsion that accompanies the WWII style mobilisation (yes, they do make a direct comparison) they urge is of course anathema to anyone with the least pretence to a concern for liberty or freedom. Their ideas on how to reform the financial system actually brought on a bout of hysteria: they want credit controls, they want to lower the interest rates so that green schemes appear profitable and they want to divert pensions into such green schemes. They then have the audacity that stuffing your money in to low return green schemes will provide you with a decent pension. Eh? The hysteria turned to giggles when they described the capital controls needed to increase the amount of money available for such investments. Leave aside their both socialist and nationalist insistence that your money must be placed at the use of the nation rather than your use and think instead of this. Given that we run a trade deficit we of course run a capital surplus. Capital controls might stop capital leaving but they'll also stop it coming in for fear of not being able to leave again: so given that we are nett capital importers they intend to increase investment capital by stopping such importation. Genius, don't you think? One thing that really did amuse was that this article appeared in the same edition of the same newspaper. Crude oil from GM algae, a process some 16 times more efficient (claimed, at least) than biofuels. This, from the day before also amused, low cost electrolysis as a way of storing solar power. Then of course there's the repeated insistence by such as Jeremey Leggett that solar itself is only five or six years away from being cost competitive with coal for electricity generation. My own view on all of this is that we really don't need to change society in the ways described, even if it were possible or even desirable. We did need to work out a way of weaning ourselves off fossil fuels, yes, but that process started in the labs a decade and more ago, is now in the hands of the engineers and soon the technologies of choice will be available off the shelf. In short, technology will indeed save us, for people spotted a profit opportunity and got on with inventing and making the things that we will need. What we needed to do we've already done. Hmm, I wonder what the next argument the millenarian socialists will use as a reason we must destroy civilisation will be? Comments (3)
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written by Giselle, August 04, 2008
All very well, but if it's true, your arguments mean nothing in terms of stopping what will happen to the earth!
... written by chris, August 07, 2008
The only thing naive is Worst-all's (might as well attack ad hominem, as these type of arguments are littered throughout his piece) blind faith in market forces to solve the world's woes. Devotion to market forces is one of the reasons we in such a dire state in the last hour, and this type of fundamentalism is last thing we should be relying upon. Technology is part of the solution; reducing consumption is part too. Not sure how that plays out in your limitless growth economy, something mathematically impossible to continue indefinitely, anti-Malthusian logic aside. And these expensive green technologies you quickly dismissed? Well lets level the playing field a bit then. Lets give some of the current $180 billion in global subsidies to the fossil fuel industry to the renewable energy industry, which currently receives only $10 billion. Yes I know renewable energy is much smaller proportionally than the fossil fuels industry, but why would such a mature industry, currently raking in windfall profits (ahhhh unregulated markets:) need subsidy? If you think that just sitting back and letting business carry on as usual, perhaps with even less regulation, is going to prevent us from reaching global tipping points impossible to halt catastrophic climate change then you are the one willing to destroy our civilisation. This laisez-faire attitude dooms future generations. Take your head out of the sand, for the rest of us.
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If there overall hypothesis is true and in exactly 100 months we will be past the tipping point, unless we conform to their top down Utopian plan (which of course would be implemented perfectly without unforeseen effects), then there is no hope and I'm going to have to be quite cynical about my future life; time to build a bunker somewhere cold and mountainous.