Adam Smith Institute

Biotechnology is very likely to dominate the second half of the 21st century, just as computer technology dominated the second half of the 20th century. This is why the former Princeton physicist Freeman Dyson reckons that the solution to growing GHG emissions will come from genetic manipulation of our vast Northern forests.

His hope is based on the famous Keeling graph to be found here. It shows that about 8 percent of atmospheric carbon dioxide is absorbed and returned in a yearly cycle by the earth's vegetation. This means that the average lifetime of a carbon molecule is just 12 years. This rapid exchange is of fundamental importance because:

In the unlikely event that human-induced global warming were to prove a real problem, we’d have far more time up our collective sleeve to finetune the preferred level of atmospheric CO2…

Freeman thinks in the next 20 to 50 years scientists might be able to create carbon-eating trees, which could absorb most of the atmospheric carbon, convert it into a stable form and bury it into the ground. He suggests:

If one-quarter of the world’s forests were replanted with carbon-eating varieties of the same species, the forests would be preserved as ecological resources and as habitats for wildlife, and the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would be reduced by half in 50 years.

One of the many surprises that greeted me upon my arrival to London a few weeks ago was discovering the restrictions on internet usage that I would be subjected to by my provider. In the States, almost all internet service plans come with unlimited usage; here, for a low cost I have access to a few hours a day and enough space for about 500 emails each week.  If I want to download movies or many pictures, I can purchase space for an additional price. I was impressed by the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of plans that charge according to use, and wondered why the American market seemed so different.

Now, it looks as though American internet suppliers will be moving in the same direction. It’s hard to imagine the internet as a limited resource, but only so much information can be transmitted at any given time on one network. As demand has increased, the supply has become more valuable. Companies like Comcast and AT&T are now introducing plans that include monthly caps or slower service for those who use too much bandwidth at peak hours. Initially, I am sure that there will be some resistance.  People do not tend to like changes that seem to restrict their activities, especially when they are used to unlimited access.

Nonetheless, the vast majority of Americans should be happy about this innovation. Under the existing system, if a few heavy users increase bandwidth demand enough to drive up prices or force companies to create more infrastructure, everyone except those few users is worse off. Either prices must be raised to support new infrastructure with higher capacity or service will be slowed because of too much information. By charging people according to their usage, Americans can decide for themselves how much internet access they want to pay for. The relevant trade-off is not between unlimited and restricted access at the current prices; rather, it is between higher rates and slower service for everyone, or a choice among packages that lets us pay more only if we want extra access. The result will be a fairer distribution of the costs and benefits of the internet, with those who use it most paying their fair share.

Researchers at Boeing Phantom have predicted that in twenty years it will be entirely normal to travel to work in plane-car hybrids. The hybrid will be able to travel up to 300 miles and, thanks to a computerised 'flight instructor', it will take minimal skill and concentration.

Powered by electricity and or batteries, it will run on relatively clean technology. However, given the freedom and fun that the hybrid will introduce, I'm sure the ecofascists will find a way of criticising the enterprise.

With green extremists still intent on prophesising doomsday visions of future, it is good to see the normally complicit BBC report on how technology can improve the environment. After all, technological innovation has meant that most humans no longer consider dying at thirty to be normal.

Boeing's vision is entirely likely. A Slovenian company, Pipistrel, will be delivering the first commercially produced two-seater electric aircraft, it runs on a lithium-polymer battery which can be recharged in the time it will take as long as a mobile phone.

As the work Positive Environmentalism from the Globalisation Institute clearly argues, technology offers the surest way to protect the environment. Surely it is about time that this was acknowledged by politicians, the media and society at large.

If you picked up the Daily Mail this week and came across this article you may have been quite cynical. Glass, in bones, that heals? They must be joking! Well, no, it is true.  Scientists at three English universities (Imperial College London, University of Kent, and Warwick) are working together to develop just that – a glass to heal bones. 
 
Now, before you go thinking they’re crushing up windows and putting them in people, glass can be (simply) defined as: a brittle, transparent solid made from silica without a crystalline molecular structure.  Back in the 1969, Larry Hench developed BioGlass (pictured left), after being challenged by a US colonel to help Vietnam War vets with devastating injuries.  BioGlass was the first man-made material to bond with living tissues, and has many uses today, including dental, middle ear implants, and orthopaedic applications.
 
In patients where grafts are necessary, often there is little spare bone to graft from one place to another. Animal grafts or bone from donor banks introduce immune responses, and require lots of medication to prevent rejection. This research aims to eliminate that need altogether.
 
Today, scientists are working on improving this glass, making it more bioactive and like the shape of trabecular bone.  Researchers at Imperial College were the first to take BioGlass and make it into a 3-D porous structure. The improved shape allows cells to grow and form tissue, while providing strength and support like native bone. 
 
When implanted, these bioactive glasses gradually release necessary ions, such as calcium and phosphorus, stimulating the bone to mend itself.  They are also biodegradable, and slowly break down as the bone re-grows, preventing a loss of strength while repairing. These glasses are now being combined with other materials on the nanoscale, widening their potential applications in the body. These implants have the potential to greatly improve patients’ quality of life and change the future of medicine.

92. "Genetic modification is dangerous and should be banned."

The reverse is true. Genetic modification offers the opportunity to solve problems in ways that are far less dangerous than what we already do. GM crops, for example – often demonized as 'Frankenstein foods' by NGOs looking for a good scare campaign – can enable us to produce more food and safer foods in environmentally friendly and less intrusive ways.

To produce enough food at present we have to make extensive use of pesticides and fertilizers which leach into the environment, and we have to use energy intensively to protect our crops from adverse weather. Genetic modification is bringing us crops that incorporate natural pest-resisting properties without the need for chemicals. They bring crops that can fix atmospheric nitrogen to fertilize their own soil. They offer crops more resistant to adverse weather, better able to resist excessive cold, heat, drought, floods, or salinity. In each case GM makes use of something nature has already developed, and applies it to more useful crops. The result is more food production, particularly on marginal land, and with less environmental impact. It can also give us foods that last longer, stay fresher, and are less likely to carry diseases.

But genetic modification is making much more possible. We can now get crops and animals to produce large quantities of cheap vaccines, enabling us to protect millions of children in poorer countries from life-threatening or disabling diseases. The 'golden rice,' genetically modified to incorporate vitamin A can save millions of children from the blindness which results from its deficiency. And genetic modification can enable us to modify anopheles mosquitoes so they no longer act as hosts to the plasmodium which causes malaria, the biggest killer of all.

The mindless scare campaign against GM foods has already cost the lives and the well-being of countless children across the world. We should embrace the technology that offers a better future for all.

91. "We have to live more simply and restrain our extravagant lifestyles, or pollution will overwhelm the Earth's ability to cope with it."

It sounds fine in theory. If we all bought locally, went back to horse-drawn carts, and stopped our acquisitive drive for more, surely we could reduce our footprint on planet Earth and allow it time to heal itself? Probably not. Rich people might fantasize about the simpler, less stressful life, but the poor want to get rich. In the Asian sub-continent and the Far East, they want to get as far as they can from starvation and subsistence, and lead the lifestyles they see us enjoying.

In China and India they are using Earth's resources hand over fist, burning energy at an unprecedented rate. It is not environmental quality they seek, but the wealth that offers a better life. The Chinese will build two new coal fired power stations a week for a decade, maybe two, and probably burning cheap, sulphurous coal to generate their electricity. They do not wish to be told to curb their ambitions and live more simply.

The scapegoat targets like 'food miles' and budget air trips make a negligible contribution to the pollution humans cause. The biggest contributors to that include agriculture and power generation. Even if the whole planet, rich and poor alike, made binding agreements "to live more simply," it would only succeed in lowering the quality of life for many, probably without making any significant change to the planet.

The answer is not simplicity but technology. Rich countries can afford to live cleanly, and can develop the technology to make this possible. We can produce clean power, clean engines and clean industry, and we can be wealthy enough to afford these things. Instead of living more simply, we should be developing and rewarding this advanced technology and doing what we want to do in a way that has less impact on the planet.

86. "We should extradite any citizen accused of crimes by overseas prosecutors."

The readiness of British governments to act at the behest of overseas prosecutors has been a disturbing development. It has included extradition to face trial abroad for actions done in the UK which are not criminal here. Countries have very different approaches to law and legal rights. US prosecutors, some seeking popularity to boost political careers, have a habit of using criminal law in what would be civil actions in Britain, especially in relation to business actions. Their habit of parading those accused in chains in order to influence future jurors is not one that sits well with the presumption of innocence. Their regular use of plea-bargains to allow some of those accused to buy immunity by testifying against others is not conducive to honest testimony.

Even more disturbing is the British government's decision to allow UK citizens to be extradited to other EU countries, possibly ones they have never even visited, to face trial for actions which are not illegal in this country. Under this procedure, a person appearing on a local radio station might be extradited to Malta to face trial there because some prosecutor there regarded what was said as a breach of some obscure Maltese law.

The pretence is that the EU is now a unit with a common standard of law. This is simply not true. Each member state has had its own approach to law, and many have widely different practices and different degrees of respect for people's rights. The trial of UK plane spotters in Greece for espionage illustrated some of these radical differences. UK citizens should not be at the mercy of capricious foreign prosecutors.

Many fought for their rights under law in the UK, and some died. It is entirely wrong that these rights should now be so carelessly given away in the name of cementing international relationships.

A New York Times article by Robert Pear reports on a US government research finding that the there is an widening socio-economic disparity in life expectancy, as well as in income levels. Not only has the income gap been widening, but the number of years that affluent people can expect to live is moving further ahead than those expected by poorer people. Tim Worstall discusses the findings on his own site.

The trend has happened despite federal attempts to narrow the gap. It has widened between income groups, social classes and ethnic divisions. In two decades the gap between top and bottom had widened from 2.8 years to 4.5 years.

The gaps have been increasing despite efforts by the federal government to reduce them. One of the top goals of "Healthy People 2010," an official statement of national health objectives issued in 2000, is to “eliminate health disparities among different segments of the population,” including higher- and lower-income groups and people of different racial and ethnic background.

No, not about the prices of mobile phones, but what mobile phones do to prices. We already know that better communications technology is correlated with a rise in the growth rate of GDP. A new paper helps to explain quite why:

In this paper we provide some estimates of the nature, magnitude and distribution of the effects of cell phones on grain market performance, traders’ behavior and consumer and trader welfare in Niger. The introduction of cell phones reduced price dispersion across grain markets, with a larger increase for those markets that were farther apart and over time.

As the researchers conclude, mobile phones are therefore probably Pareto-improving: some have been made better off and none worse off, a highly desirable state of affairs.

In the larger scheme of things this does suggest some options for how we might aid growth in such poor countries. Yes, some, as with the authors of this paper, suggest subsidising mobile phone systems. Given that private companies are entirely happy to build such networks as long as they are allowed a licence, this would seem unneccessary (as with the Niger system itself). Encouragement to governments to issue such licences might seem to be all that is required. But more important than that even is the lesson that improving the ability of markets to function benefits all, so we should be encouraging those things which improve said functioning.

The Project Better Place is a joint venture by Israeli-American entrepreneur Shai Agassi and the Israeli government. With the aim to reduce significantly Israels dependence on foreign oil from undemocratic regimes, a nationwide network of electric cars will be available by 2011 if everything runs on schedule. Nissan and Renault will build the cars and the government will offer tax incentives to purchasers.

The innovative model, developed by Agassi, would provide consumers with inexpensive cars, and they would pay a monthly fee for expected mileage, like minutes on a cellphone plan. Project Better Place will provide infrastructure including parking meter-like plugs on city streets or service stations along highways at which batteries can be replaced.

This annoucement coincides with a rebirth of electric vehicles, thanks to a breakthourgh in energy storage based on nanotechnology. New Lithium batteries are developed from a family of different chemical combinations and have enabled new features such as charging cycles in excess of 20,000 while still retaining 85 percent of their capacity. The time required for recharing has been cut down to only 10 minutes, instead of many hours previously. Most importantly, the new batteries can store four times more electric energy than conventional ones and operate safely from -50° C to 75° C. With 3,000 charging cycles a battery would provide enough energy for a car to do 150,000 miles at 80 percent capacity.

Two years ago a Japanese team built a car called Eliica, short for Electric Lithium-Ion battery Car. This eight-wheeled, 600kW rocket served as proof that electric cars can be fast and fun. It boasts a neck-snapping 0-100kmh time of just four seconds and a 0-160kmh time of seven seconds - faster than a Porsche 911 Turbo. And for our American readers, the attractive new Teslasports car, built in Northern California, is now being marketed for $100k.

Yet again, the state is trying to assume control over our bodies. Last week it was Gordon Brown’s 'presumed consent' for organ donation, this week it is 'specific consent' over tissue being used for stem cell research.

The Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority's bill would require specific consent from those whose tissue would be used for stem cell research, regardless of the date of tissue donation. That may sound reasonable, but as a letter to The Times from twenty-nine top stem cell researchers (including three Nobel laureates) put it:

…many existing cell and tissue samples and cell lines were donated, for any research purpose, by patients (now untraceable) with particular diseases, before this sort of research was even imagined. These cells have been well characterised over many years, or have unique properties and may therefore be the best samples to use for the derivation of embryonic stem cells. Such stem cell lines would be of great value in understanding how diseases develop, as well in the search for therapies.

Clearly people donating tissue or their entire bodies are interesting in progressing science and healthcare for the sake of others, but HFEA's proposed legislation will require a new bank of tissue will need to be created, costing hundreds of thousands of pounds, and more importantly – time. The bill also blocks any donations from children, regardless of consent, which means that some scientists whose research has already been approved will not be able to proceed.

Baroness Royall has told the House of Lords that ministers will reconsider the bill, but that they could not accept the amendments put forth by Lord Patel of Dunkeld, the chairman of the UK Stem Cell Network Steering Committee:

We believe the use of their genetic material to create cloned embryos or human admixed [interspecies] embryos is exceptional and requires exceptional consent.

One week consent is presumed, the next it is specifically needed. It seems as though the government can’t make up their minds about anything.

While Dr Eamonn Butler has been giving his take on the traditional presents for the twelve days of Christmas, Wired magazine and website has been looking at less traditional things. Alexis Madrigal has produced a list of the top ten new organisms of 2007. That's right, the best among organisms that didn't exist in 2006. Interestingly, only the 5 gold rings of the twelve days of Christmas list are inert. The rest, ranging from lords a-leaping to that partridge in its pear tree, are living organisms, though many of them these days are rather less useful than the new ones given Wired's accolade.

Wired picks out the Ashera GD hypoallergenic cat, modified so even those allergic to cats are relaxed in its company. This little kitty is not cheap at $27,000, but the price will come down and pretty soon we'll be able to choose the hypoallergenic option in our regular moggies.

The E­coli modified to make butanol fuel are not very efficient, but it could be a first step, and they were made by students at Atlanta U. While the students were turning bugs into fuel, a U of Central Florida team modified lettuce to produce insulin, and a Penn State team created GM mushrooms that can mass-produce vaccines.

Less cuddly than the hypoallergenic cat, though no less useful, is the South Korean cat modified to glow in the dark under UV light. The fluorescence can act as a marker to show that other modifications have worked. Doctors at Temple U also achieved glowing results with a yeast which glows green in the presence of DNT, found in TNT. This could lead to low-cost and rapid bio-sensors for dangerous materials.

The two that I liked best were the Oak Ridge trees we already reported on, the ones modified to absorb super quantities of CO2, and the Clostridium bacteria modified by Netherlands scientists to carry cancer-fighting proteins to oxygen-starved parts of cancer tumours, giving us a "seek and destroy" capability.

What's encouraging is that these are simply the best of a huge list. New organisms to serve our purposes and solve our problems are being created on a daily basis, no doubt to the chagrin of antediluvian NGOs. Next year should be better still, so have yourselves a happy and even more modified New Year.

The system he came up with includes a special version of the 3rd Space vest with 64 contact points on the abdomen alone. A glove worn by the physician has eight contact points that are used to touch the patient remotely and impart responses.

Led by Jeff Holden and Darren Erik Vengroff, both of whom previously held high-ranking positions at Amazon.com, Pelago is one of a number of companies trying to tap the emerging arena of location-based services. The idea is that mobile phone users will want to locate friends -- who may be at a nearby restaurant -- or at the very least get a review of the restaurant that a friend wrote a few weeks ago.