Chart of the week: US broad money still reliant on QE
Summary: Tepid US broad money growth still dependent on QE
What the chart shows: The chart shows the annual percentage change in US broad money and in credit to the non-bank private sector. Broad money is the recreation by Stein Brothers of the M3 measure discontinued by the Federal Reserve in March 2006.
Why the chart is important: US broad money growth continues to oscillate around 5%. This is better than the 4% M4 growth seen in the UK and considerably better than the 1.4% recently registered for October in the euro area. Nevertheless, US bank balance sheets – and hence broad money growth – still seem dependent on continued quantitative easing. Since the Fed’s ‘taper terror’ subsided in September, broad money has grown by $135bn, compared with the $160bn the fed has spent on buying assets from the banking system over the same period. Total bank credit has grown by $36bn and loans and leases by $19bn (the difference between total bank credit and loans and leases in bank credit is lending to the public sector). By contrast, cash assets have grown by $191bn. What this all means is that US banks are still stocking up on cash and that credit growth remains weak. The economy seems strong enough to support the beginning of a QE taper; but the development of bank balance sheets over the first two or three months after a taper begins, will be a key pointer as to when it will actually end.
So who really benefits from this neoliberal globalism stuff anyway?
This chart comes from this excellent paper by Cristoph Lakner and Branko Milanovic. It shows whose incomes have risen the most (and fallen the most) as a result of this neoliberal globalisation thing we've been having for the past 30 years. The results from the ex-Soviet bloc need to be taken with a real pinch of salt unfortunately, for they use starting figures that most observers consider to be far too high. It's really a stretch to say that Romania today is a poorer place than it was in the dying days of the Ceascescu regime.
However, look over to those who have benefitted. We'd not be all that surprised to see that many of the Chinese deciles have seen their incomes rise. The growth of China is after all the major economic story of these past decades. But look at that UK bottom decile: 5.5% per annum growth in incomes! That rather gives the lie to the idea that the poor are getting poorer, doesn't it? Ireland's Celtic Tiger growth (note that these figures are up until 2008) similarly seems to have beneftted the two bottom deciles in that country.
The net effect of this neoliberal globalisation thing seems to be that the poor are getting rich. And given that that's what we all want to happen then why is it that so many people complain about it all?
So that's the gender pay gap solved then
We've the release of this year's figures about the gender pay gap and it seems that we'rte pretty much done, we've solved it. The full figures are here. As I've been saying for a number of years now there most certainly used to be gender discrimination in pay. What we want to know now though is whether there still is? And as that chart shows, no, it's very difficult indeed to see that there is. For in the 18 to 40 group pay is indeed roughly equal. It's only in the older ages groups, those who coupld well have suffered from the earlier discrimination, that we are still seeing significant differences in pay.
So, we can declare victory and go home then. Except, of course, there are those who willfully misuse the statistics to insist that more must be done. As in The Guardian:
More than 40 years since legislation was introduced which outlawed paying men and women different wages for the same work, women still face a lifetime of earning less. New figures from the Office of National Statistics show the pay gap is beginning to widen, after years of slow but steady progress. Looking at mean average earnings
And they should be slapped with a wet haddock for that. Because they have been told, repeatedly, that you should use the median average when discussing these figures. The mean is too distorted with the incomes of the 1%, and the 0.1%. What encourages me is that the comments section is full of people pointing out the faults with the assertions being made.
And as to exactly what it is that we did to get rid of that gender pay gap? At root I think it's simply the way work has changed. The more muscular male physique no longer matters in anything but a tiny minority of jobs. Thus there's no particular reason for men and women to be paid different amounts therefore they're not.
How hysterically funny about Mazzucato's "Entrepreneurial State"
You will recall that a central theme of Marianna Mazzucato's book, The Entrepreneurial State, is that all this gee whizz techno shiny shiny that we see around us really comes from stuff that the government has originally subsidised, invented, come up with or otherwise spirited into creation. And of course, the outcome of this is that all your money belong to us.
And one of the examples she gives is the way that the British government subsidised the work that made Apple's iPhone a possibility. Specifically, on touch capable screens able to understand dual movements (things like "pinch and zoom"), something crucial to the technology.
Ah, sadly no, as my sometimes colleagues over at The Register reveal. In fact, a plucky British inventor did come up with the idea, did indeed go to the government and they screwed around so much and for so long that another inventor got there first and was bought up by Apple.
Fentem submitted a funding application to Nesta in January 2003, while he continued to work on new prototypes. "When I first approached Nesta I was told that I would receive a funding decision within 6 weeks," he says. "However, it took Nesta a year to just write the contract. To put that in perspective, it took Apple only 2 years to conceive, develop and commercialise the entire iPhone."
It's worth reading the whole five pages at Andrew Orlowski has done an excellent job there. And the truth is that Nesta, the British government, did not in fact develop multitouch screens. In fact, they managed to cock up the development process so badly that someone else developed it. An advertisement for government direction of innovaiton this is not.
And it also rather guts Mazzucato's basic contention.
One problem, as I see it, is that it is in fact true that invention doesn't happen in isolation. We're all standing on the shoulders of giants after all. But what that means is that the next incremental improvement in whatever it is is ripe, ripe for the plucking as a result of all of the thousands of years of science and technology that we already have. That in turn means that to pluck it one needs to move quickly. And quick movement is just not something you're ever going to get when the State is involved.
Basic scientific research? Dreaming in ivory towers? Sure, the results will be public goods and there's a good argument for some tax funding there. But it's just not going to work in developing actual products and technologies. As the screens for the iPhone show, whatever the stories that Mazzucato is telling.
The start of a political meme
A small exercise in trying to spot where a political meme starts out. For this little story is making its way around the web and I am sure that it will become a standard part of the talking points over the minimum wage in the US. It's this idea that servants today are being paid less than servants were in 1910 America. It comes from this piece by David Cay Johnston:
Consider the family cook. Many family cooks now work at family restaurants and fast-food joints. This means that instead of having to meet a weekly payroll, families can hire a cook only as needed. A household cook typically earned $10 a week in 1910, century-old books on the etiquette of hiring servants show. That is $235 per week in today’s money, while the federal minimum wage for 40 hours comes to $290 a week. At first blush, that looks like a real raise of $55 a week, or nearly a 25 percent increase in pay. But in fact, the 2013 minimum-wage cook is much worse off than the 1910 cook. Here’s why: The 1910 cook earned tax-free pay, while 2013 cook pays 7.65 percent of his or her income in Social Security taxes as well as income taxes on more than a third of his pay, assuming full-time work every week of the year. For a single person, that’s about $29 of that $55 raise deducted for taxes. Unless he can walk to work, today’s outsourced family cook must cover commuting costs. A monthly transit pass costs $75 in Los Angeles, $95 in Atlanta and $112 in New York City, so bus fare alone runs $17 to $27 a week, eating up a third to almost half of the seeming increase in pay, making the apparent raise pretty much vanish. The 1910 cook got room and board, while the 2013 cook must provide his or her own living space and food.
There's an amusement at complaining that the cost of government has gone up there.
But given that these numbers are broadly correct what is the problem with the basic argument being made? That servants are now paid less well than their comparators 100 years ago?
For this certainly isn't something we would expect to see at all. Inequality now is no higher (at the very least it is no higher) than it was then and the median and mean wages have very definitely risen over that time span. So, given what we do know about wages in general of the past century how can we reconcile this?
The answer is of course that in looking at a cook Johnston is not looking at a fast food worker now. Yes, they both prepare food but a cook in 1910 was a senior and important part of the servant household. It was a position reached only after many years of work at a lower level. The cook was, along with the housekeeper and the butler, very much part of the management of the household and part of, to use a very strange phrase indeed, the servant aristocracy. You would also only find cooks in a grander house. To compare such to current day fast food workers is just being historically obtuse.
The correct comparison for a current day fast food worker would be to the sort of serving jobs that an untrained teenager might hope to get in 1910. And in the cooking side of things that would, in 1910 terms, be scullery maid. Who would, in London, have been paid perhaps £10 a year, or at the exchange rate of the time, some $50 a year.
And yes, I do think we can support the contention that today's fast food workers do make more than that $50 a year as adjusted for inflation.
But there we are, of such tricks are political memes created.
The Universal Credit can still improve Britain's welfare
Clearly, responding to the challenges posed by 21st Century welfare is not as simple as throwing more money at the problems to make them go away. With hundreds of thousands of people failing to claim benefits that they are entitled to, any reform must aim to reduce the complexity of the claiming benefits for eligible individuals, whilst increasing work incentives. Ensuring that our welfare system is simple to use for those that need to is an important step on the road to raising the incomes of the less well off to a reasonable standard.
Sources: Office for National Statistics/HBAI statistics from Department for Work and Pensions
It is these goals of simplicity and increasing work incentives that inform Universal Credit (UC), which first came to prominence in Iain Duncan Smith’s exposition of the scheme in a speech to the Conservative Party Conference in 2010. Discussing his intentions, he hoped that Universal Credit would “restore fairness and simplicity to a complex, outdated and wildly expensive benefits system”.
Almost three years down the line, Universal Credit still features prominently in the media, but largely for the wrong reasons. There is no doubt that there have been serious shortcomings in the implementation of Universal Credit to date, which have been detailed in the National Audit Office’s latest report on the progress of the project. The report highlights millions of pounds wasted on failed IT programmes, unrealistic timetables for implementation and a lack of transparency; these issues hardly fill one with confidence for the future of UC.
It is hoped that the recent appointment of Howard Shiplee (former Olympic executive) as director-general of the project will bring the experience and skill necessary to steer Universal Credit back on course. This piece will argue that despite the negative publicity surrounding Universal Credit’s implementation thus far, the concept itself is still worth supporting and will help large numbers of people find work and escape severe poverty. Behind the partisan games of political football being played out between parties lies consensus; all three major UK parties support Universal Credit in principle, and the reasons why will be set out below.
How does Universal Credit work, and what are its advantages?
Universal Credit is part of the Coalition’s Welfare Reform Act 2012, and aims to replace six working-age benefits/tax credits with a single welfare payment: income-based jobseeker's allowance, income-related employment and support allowance, income support, child tax credit, working tax credit and housing benefit. This payment will be accompanied by a single, constant taper rate (the rate at which a benefit is reduced to take account of earnings) of approximately 65%.
Consolidating all existing working-age benefits and tax credits into one payment simplifies the system massively: one application, one statement of earnings and entitlements, and one coordinating agency. A welfare system comprehensible to those that need to make use of it is essential. It ensures that the greatest possible number of those in severe poverty are provided with the minimum income they are entitled to. Making the UK’s benefits system easier for claimants to understand will help ensure that taxpayers’ money goes to those that need it. Therefore, the adoption of Universal Credit is expected to substantially increase take-up amongst those eligible to claim: tackling the trend of rising severe poverty that has taken place over past years.
Of course, it is essential that those who claim benefits are encouraged to find work, and the most effective way of doing so is by ‘making work pay’. This is, at least in part, accomplished through a lowering and streamlining of effective marginal effective tax rates (METRs). Marginal effective tax rates represent the amount of money forgone by working more hours through loss of welfare money and paying taxes. METRs under the current system are often inordinately high and unpredictable (see examples in the charts below). As a consequence, they act as a major disincentive to work for many people.
Universal Credit will help to address problematic marginal effective tax rates by introducing a single taper rate of 65%, meaning that those on low earnings will be better off on UC and work will pay more. Work incentives are also increased by the inclusion of an “earnings disregard” (£700 per year for single people): a significant improvement on the standard £260 per year (£5 per week) of the current system. UC’s taper rate will therefore only apply to earnings above this threshold, improving the attractiveness of work.
It is inevitable that in the short-term, more resources will be required to set-up the machinery by which Universal Credit can operate effectively. Official estimates tout the figure of £2.4bn as the total cost of implementing UC, but focusing purely on the short-run cost fails to highlight potential efficiency savings and the reduction of various costs that arise from unemployment. In the Centre for Social Justice’s report Dynamic Benefits, welfare reform proposals largely indistinguishable from the DWP’s version of Universal Credit are estimated to increase UK GDP by £4.7bn. In fiscal terms, the short-term costs of Universal Credit borne by the taxpayer are more than compensated for by significant increases in employment and the consequent prosperity this engenders.
Answering the detractors
There have been various criticisms levelled at UC which raise legitimate concerns about the specifics of the DWP’s proposals. One of the most common objections is that Universal Credit will be managed largely online, meaning that those who struggle to connect to the Internet or lack computer literacy may have trouble claiming benefits they are eligible for. Whilst it is true that without suitable provision of computing facilities and guidance this would affect some people, plans to install 6,000 new computers across Jobcentres is likely to remedy any lack of digital access. Claimants who can make use of the online system from home will benefit from not having to travel to their local Jobcentre, and at worst there will be no change from the current system for those who require assistance with their claims.
A further potential drawback of Universal Credit that has been highlighted is the move to welfare payments on a monthly basis, rather than the current system’s varying weekly, fortnightly and (in some cases) monthly payouts. The Social Market Foundation’s report on Universal Credit, Sink or Swim?, cites a sample of thirty households affected by the move to UC: the majority of which held negative opinions of monthly payments. This opposition stemmed largely from the issue of having to budget more responsibly, and concerns about running out of money before the end of the month. However, it can be argued that encouraging greater responsibility for financial planning could prove advantageous for households: for example, gaining experience of budgeting in jobs with a monthly salary. Moreover, the Department for Work and Pensions is looking to include the options of advance UC payments and alternative payment arrangements in extenuating circumstances, helping to mitigate any difficulties experienced from adjusting to monthly budgeting.
Conclusion
After starting in October this year, Universal Credit is due to expand to Jobcentres in Hammersmith, Rugby, Inverness, Harrogate, Bath, and Shotton; it is planned that this expansion will be completed by Spring 2014. Whether the government will meet its objective of UC being fully operational across the country by 2017 seems unlikely, but it is hoped that with new management and swift responses to the criticisms highlighted in the National Audit Office’s recent report, this important reform to Britain’s welfare system will be up-and-running by the target date.
The temptation to confuse valid criticisms of Universal Credit’s implementation with condemnations of the overall policy itself must be resisted. No policy is perfect, but as discussed above, there are concrete benefits that Universal Credit can bring to the lives of Britain’s poorest people. It will incentivise work, alleviate poverty, encourage responsible budgeting, and (in the long-run) bring the plethora of economic gains that are linked to increased employment. In these ways, the Universal Credit can work.
Should Britain have a written constitution?
Should Britain have a written constitution? Actually, while there are unwritten bits such as royal prerogatives and parliamentary conventions, most of it is indeed written. There is the 1215 Magna Carta, bits of which are still in force (though limitations on the monarchy started earlier, with measures such as the 1100 Charter of Liberties). And there is the 1689 Bill of Rights that limited the monarch’s ability to raise arbitrary taxes and interfere in justice and elections. There are various Acts of Parliament that are accepted as constitution, such as the 1689 Act of [religious] Toleration, the 1689 Habeas Corpus measure, the Reform Act of 1832, and more recently, the devolution measures. Not to mention various EU laws.
But no Parliament can bind its successor, so in theory any of these measures could be ripped up at any time. That is hardly a constitution at all: one of the points about a constitution is that, once it is agreed, it should be hard to change. Yet simple majorities in Parliament have proved enough to change our fundamental relationship with the EU, to change radically the composition and powers of the House of Lords, to reorganise local government, to limit access to trial by jury (too bad, Magna Carta), regulate free speech in newspapers (sorry, Bill of Rights), to hold suspects for prolonged periods (ho hum, Habeas Corpus) and much more.
It is an old but true adage that hard cases make bad laws. Until recently, we have maintained the principle of free speech, reckoning that even though it may be abused, on balance we gain more from people being able to speak their mind. But nasty cases such as racial abuse and phone hacking have torn up that long-held part of the constitution, and in the blink of an eye.
Some 95 members of the House of Commons (and 45 members of the Lords) are part of the payroll vote – ministers, whips and other government officers. Another 95 would probably love to be part of it, and there are equal numbers of aspirants for office on the Opposition side too. Parliament was originally set up to protect the public from the Executive, but now at least half of it is part of the Executive, or the shadow Executive. How can we then expect Parliament to limit Executive power over our lives?
Or limit itself, for that matter? There are no limits on government spending, deficits, debts, or on the ability to create new and arbitrary taxes (such as the 50p top income tax rate, which proved to be not just an envy tax, but a counterproductive envy tax)?
Answers on a postcard please. We could probably start by moving the Executive out of Parliament entirely. After all, we have set up a Supreme Court across the square from the House of Commons (another change in governance that the public were not asked about), so why not confine ministers to their ministries and only allow them out to be grilled by Commons committees? Then perhaps Parliament would revert to its original role, of protecting us from government power, rather that extending it.
Dr. Eamonn Butler is author of Foundations of a Free Society.
Raise wages, perhaps, or possibly lower benefits
We have one of the usual arguments here about immigration. An employer, in this case Dominos, says that they could hire 1,000 people immediately if only people could be bothered to to do the work they are offering. The response was that perhaps they should try paying a little more in order to encrouage people to apply:
The immigration minister, Mark Harper, has hit back at employers who say they have to recruit foreign workers from outside Europe to fill low-paid jobs by telling them they should offer better wages. Harper said that Lance Batchelor, the chief executive of Domino's Pizza, should reflect on the salaries he was offering if he could not fill 1,000 vacancies without recruiting unskilled staff from outside Europe. The immigration minister told the Commons home affairs select committee: "He should probably pay his staff a little more and he might find them easier to recruit. It's a market."
That's a fine answer as far as it goes: but it's not really a complete analysis of the situation. For what it's leaving out is the rigging of that market by government itself. We're all aware that we have a serious problem with the tax and benefit withdrawal rates on the low paid in this country. There are millions who face marginal rates above 60% and even tens of thousands facing them of over 100%. And it is indeed the change in disposable income which is the incentive to work or not, not the wages that you are nominally being paid.
OK, now think of this same problem from the other side. Say Dominos is paying £7 an hour (I've no idea what the correct number is) and they cannot get the labour at this price. Sure, perhaps they should offer more to get what they want. But precisely because of the high tax and benefit rate they have to offer much more to change behaviour. If they offer another £1 an hour then only 40 p to nothing of that gets through to the disposable income of the worker they're trying to incentivise. So part of their problem is indeed that the government taxes the working poor too highly. A rise in hte personal allowance would help here.
But there's one more thing. Recent immigrants are not given access to hte full panoply of the welfare state and its subsidies. Therefore, as they work they face lower benefit withdrawal rates and thus greater changes in their disposable income from taking work or not. We've thus a rather perverse set of incentives built into how we do things. Recent immigrants are always going to be more likely to take low paid work than indigenes are, simply because we've structured the welfare system to create the incentives this way.
Taxes were too low in the UK this year by precisely £604.48
The Guardian, not that it has quite realised it, has proven that in the very worst case taxes were too low in hte UK by £604.48 this year. Here is the proof:
Members of the public have donated almost £900,000 to the government so far this financial year to help pay off the national debt or boost public spending, figures from the Treasury show. Clearly the 11 contributions, ranging from 78p to £520,000 and totalling £898,539.80, are a drop in the ocean of Britain's £1.2 trillion national debt, which chancellor George Osborne announced last week was set to be £18bn lower than forecast in March. But it is the highest amount since £1.08m was given in 2010. The figures, supplied under a freedom of information request, showed that most of the money donated since April – more than £897,000 – was in the form of bequests. Gifts and unclassified payments add up to £604.48.
This is, of course, rather different from what most people actually say about taxes. But then we do know that there is this thing called revealed preferences. Do not look at what people say as a guide to their true views but at what they do. And if you think that taxes are too low then you will indeed send in some extra cash to the Treasury. And some people did as above to the tune of that six hundred quid. We can ignore the bequests as those aren't actually bourne by the people doing the bequeathing. The incidence of those gifts is clearly upon those who did not inherit it instead...and as we know it's rather easier to call for other people to pay more in tax than it is to be willing to cough up yourself.
I've made this point in several different places over the years but it has only just occured to me that I've been missing a trick. For we do have estimates of how much tax people ought to be paying but aren't through a varietey of means. Let's take the egregious Richard Murphy's £120 billion estimate of not paid tax as a result of tax avoidance and tax evasion. We can even pretend that this figure is correct if you like. Now we can apply revealed preference to this. That number might be what politicians say people should pay but by the revealed actions of the populace in dodging it it isn't what the populace thinks the tax take should be. That is, if we look at additional taxes voluntarily offered then taxes are too low by a few hundreds. And applying exactly the same logic we can also say that taxes are too high by £120 billion. And that latter sounds more likely to me too.
The Internet Watchmen
As Tim Worstall notes, new government plans to block online terrorist and extremist content are extremely worrying. Along with the introduction of default 'opt-out' porn filters and the criminalisation of rape porn, they are another example of Cameron's politicised censorship of the web. Whereas reducing the proliferation of child abuse images is a good thing, this new measure results in the censorship of ideas. Furthermore, whilst it is relatively straightforward to identify child abuse imagery, it is much less so (and arguably impossible) to decide which ideas are 'too dangerous' to viewed in the UK.
Aside from these issues there is also the question of how such a content block would work in practice. In many ways, how to block can be as problematic as the censorship itself.
The government has said that it wants to model the new blocking unit on the Internet Watch Foundation: a part-EU, part internet industry-funded UK 'hotline' for child abuse imagery. The IWF assesses material submitted by the public and flags up UK-hosted content to be removed by service providers. Content from outside the UK is added to a URL 'blacklist' which ISPs then block UK access to.
There are a number of issues with this model. First, there is no guarantee that what the IWF flags up is actually illegal. With no legal clout, the IWF acts on content it deems 'potentially illegal' - and there is little to stop legitimate content getting wrongly marked. One controversial case saw a picture of an album cover on Wikipedia getting blocked until the backlash forced the IWF to reverse their decision. Appealing against the IWF's decisions can be a difficult and opaque process, not least because of the difficulty of appealing against the illegality of an image you can't even see.
Despite the IWF's lack of legal authority, the Open Rights Group claims that their blacklist has never been assessed by a court or legal body. This makes their actions rather murky. Given its sensitivity ISPs can't see the content of the blacklist to make their own judgement; they must either block all of it or none. On top of this, there are also problems with the technology ISPs use to actually block the URLs - which can be unreliable and block too broadly.
In addition, from April 2014 the IWF will shift from a being reactive body -acting only on content sent to it - to a proactive one, actively seeking out images of abuse behind pay walls and on peer-to-peer networks. This approach is another step in the active policing of the web, and is also likely to be followed by the new anti-extremist unit.
Issues of political and religious censorship are much more complicated than that of child pornography. The unaccountability of the IWF and its lack of judicial oversight therefore make it a poor model to copy for what is an incredibly controversial (and dangerous) policy. Since the new unit will be publicly funded, its decisions may come under greater legal scrutiny. On the other hand, a government-funded body could become politicised and overzealous in its mission. In any case, a clear due process and a rigorous appeals system will be absolutely essential.
Crime & security minister James Brokenshire says an update on the proposals will arrive shortly, though the fact that civil liberty groups claim not to have been consulted on the matter is rather worrying. The sensible thing to do would be to scrap this idea altogether. Since this is unlikely to happen, both the politics and the technicalities of the initiative are bound to prove difficult indeed.
