The Pin Factory Blog

As we all well know one analysis of the Great Crash is that it all happened because financial markets werte too concentrated. There were banks that were "too big to fail" and which we couldn't just let go bust therefore we had to bail them out. I certainly ascribe to part of that analysis, or to it in part perhaps. And a useful solution would therefore be to break up large banks so that none are in fact to big to fail. Seems a logical answer.

However, what is actually happening is that we're getting ever greater regulation of those financial markets. And that's a problem, for being able to deal with regulation is a fixed cost: and increasing those reduces the number of smaller players. As Craig Pirrong puts it:

The hedge fund article also points out something I’ve been hammering on for years now: perversely, since compliance costs have a huge fixed cost element, the regulatory onslaught creates scale economies that favor concentration and consolidation, and which can potentially reduce competition. You are seeing it in hedge funds. You are seeing it in banking. You are seeing it in FCMs. And I do mean perverse, because among the ostensible purposes of these regulations were mitigating the too big to fail problem, and promoting competition. The dramatic increase in regulatory overhead that favors the big over the small is completely at odds with these purposes.

I think we do all agree that sometimes there are things that must be done and also that some of these things that must be done can only be done by government. However, the list of things that can successfully be done by regulation is rather shorter than that list of things that must be done and which can only be done by government. For as here, sometimes the effect of the regulations is diametrically opposed to the solution of the problem we're trying to deal with. More paperwork will lead to an increased concentration in an indsutry.

A rather worrying document crosses my desk. This one, in which we are told the following:

The Task Force’s human rights analysis begins by making a link between human rights and extreme poverty. For instance, the UN Human Rights Council has recently adopted Guiding Principles on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights that describe how poverty is connected as a cause or consequence of violations of 14 different human rights and all the key human rights principles − ranging from the right to food, the right to health, the right to education and the right to social security, to the principle of transparency.

Considering the negative impact that tax abuses have on poverty and human rights, the state has a number of obligations to counter tax abuses. These flow from states’ obligation to use the maximum available resources to progressively realise human rights − including the obligation to confront tax abuses as part of an overall plan to strengthen financial and tax governance.

This is the International Bar Association talking here: and it's an interesting perversion of human rights that has led us to this pretty pass.

That perversion is of course the idea that positive rights are human rights. It's pretty simple with negative rights: freedoms of speech, or association and so on. These cost nothing to provide, you just don't do things that would stop people having such rights. Positive rights, those rights to food, education, health care, they do indeed cost money to provide. In the UK at present something like 30 t0 40% of everything the entire country produces in a year in fact. We must therefore violate someone's right to property to be able to provide those things to all. We thus have a conflict of rights and one or other of them has to give.

Now I'm not an advocate of our not having a state financed welfare, health care, education or social security system. Even the most minarchist state that I can imagine happening is going to have some role for government in those fields. Which inevitably leads to taxation of course. But I am arguing that we cannot include these positive rights in our definitions of human rights. For they directly conflict with others, with negative rights that we have already decided are indeed human rights.

Clearly and obviously the UN and the International Bar Association disagree with me on this point but I wave a very English two fingers in their general direction. We're going to have government come what may and that inevitably means taxation to pay for it. But it's taking matters much too far to claim that my paying Johnny No VAT cash for cleaning my windows is a violation of Jimmy's human rights as he doesn't get a plaster for his cut finger.

One of the least well known British classical liberals was Thomas Hodgskin, who flourished in the early nineteenth century. I have been reading about him in George H Smith's new book, The System of Liberty. Something of a precursor to the Public Choice School thinkers of the twentieth century, Hodgskin critiqued the political process and despaired of getting much liberal change out of it:

Rapidly...as the gentlemen at Westminster work, making three or four hundred laws per year, repeating their tasks session after session – actively as they multiply restraints, or add patch after patch, they invariably find that the call for their labours in continually renewed. The more they botch and mend, the more numerous are the holes. Knowing nothing of natural principles, they seem to fancy that society...derives its life and strength only from them. They regard it as a baby, whom they must dandle and foster into healthy existence; but while they are scheming how to breed and clothe their pretty fondling – lo! it has become a giant, whom they can only control as far as he consents to wear their fetters.

But of course the legislators have something with which to buy that consent – their ability to raise money through taxation and spend it on the noisiest complainers:

One of the first objects then of the law, subordinate to the great principle of preserving its unconstrained dominion over our minds and bodies, is to bestow a sufficient revenue on the government. Who can describe the disgusting servility with which all classes submit to be fleeced by the demands of the tax-gatherer, on all sorts of false pretences...? Who is not acquainted with all the restrictions placed on honest and praiseworthy enterprise...? What pen is equal to the task of accurately describing all the vexations, and the continual misery, heaped on all the industrious classes of the community, under the pretext that it is necessary to raise a revenue for the government?

Thomas Hodgskin, The Natural and Artificial Right of Property Contrasted (1832).

In today's City AM I highlight some of the worst parts of the government's Immigration Bill. The Bill forces private citizens like landlords, nurses, wedding registrars and others to become de facto state informants, reporting anyone they suspect of being an illegal immigrant to the authorities:

But “papers, please” could soon become government policy. Whatever your perspective on migration, the Immigration Bill currently being debated in Parliament would turn thousands of private citizens into state agents, forced to report anyone they suspect of being an illegal immigrant. Almost every provision in the Bill will deputise some group of British citizens in this way, and would subject others to invasions of privacy.

Private landlords will have to run immigration checks on tenants, and will be at risk of prosecution if they fail to comply properly. The crackdown on “sham marriages” will expose more Britons to investigation. Marriage registrars are already required to report “suspicious” marriages to the state, but this Bill will double the period during which couples are under threat of being reported. Any Briton hoping to marry a non-EU citizen is open to investigation, and there will inevitably be mistakes that remove protections from legitimate couples.

Though concerns about health tourism are legitimate, the actual cost is tiny:

This week, it was reported that the NHS spends £2bn on treatment for temporary migrants in the UK. But most of this is on those, like students and temporary workers, who are already paying tax here.

The cost of actual health tourism – people coming to the UK specifically to get health treatment – is estimated by the government to be £70m, or 0.06 per cent of the NHS’s annual budget. Enforcing tighter controls may seem attractive. But if the cost is greater than the amount of money it saves, it doesn’t make sense.

Read the whole thing. I'd be interested to hear people's views in the comments.

I have to admit that I'm not really getting all this screaming about how expensive the nuclear deal is. Just not getting it at all:

Seven years ago, I collected all the available cost estimates for nuclear power. The US Nuclear Energy Institute suggested a penny a kilowatt hour. The Royal Academy of Engineering confidently predicted 2.3p. The British government announced that in 2020 the price would be between 3 and 4p. The New Economics Foundation guessed that it could be anywhere between 3.4 and 8.3p; 8.3 pence was so far beyond what anyone else forecast that I treated it as scarcely credible. It falls a penny short of the price now agreed by the British government.

And there's any number of people out there shouting that at £92 per MWhr Ed Davey has agreed to pay twice the current price for the electricity that will be generated. Or, as George Monbiot points out above, that 9.2 p or so per kWhr.

Sure, this is indeed more expensive than the current costs of electricity but here's the bit that I'm not getting. These complaints, they're over something that is vastly cheaper than all of the other things that are being done with the full agreement of those currently complaining.

This strike price, it's the same as a feed in tariff in its effects. And here's the list of the feed in tarifs on other technologies. Solar at 14.9 p, Hydro at 21.65 p, wind at 21.65 p again. This nuclear scheme, the one that people are complaining so hard about, is under half the cost of wind power. So, either nuclear is amazingly cheap or it's grossly expensive and wind power is twice as bad either way around.

So, as I say, I don't really get it. How can people complain about the costs of this nuclear deal and then go on to support alternative technoligies which are twice as expensive?

A few weeks back I wrote about the criteria used by the Care Quality Commission (CQC) for inspecting dentists and their complete irrelevance to patient experience and assessing tooth maintenance.  The CQC inspectors do not see what matters and if they do see evil, they do not correct it.  Three brass monkeys preside over the CQC boardroom table: Speak no evil, hear no evil and CQC.

The Orchid View Care Centre is the latest example. According to this week’s reports Orchid View was opened in 2009 and by 2010, when the CQC first inspected, abuse was already rampant.  The CQC did find fault in 2011 but then took no steps to deal with the malefactors before the Care Centre closed four months later.  19 residents died in these two years and the coroner attributed five of the deaths to neglect.

As well as the residents and patients, the whistleblowers in care homes and NHS facilities also suffer from institutional abuse. That needs urgent attention too.  Andrea Sutcliffe, CQC Chief inspector of adult social care, was interviewed on the Today programme on Saturday about the Orchid View case. She was asked if she thought it unfair that the whistleblower, Lisa Martin, not only had to endure all the stresses of whistleblowing and its workplace consequences but had been unable to find a job in the three years since.  Sutcliffe agreed that it was unfair.

She was asked what should be done about that. After a pause which seemed to indicate that she had never previously considered the matter, she replied that a change of culture was required.  Unfortunately the interviewer failed to press the point.  What change? How could it be achieved? What is the CQC doing about it?

Every whistleblower in care homes and the NHS suffers the same abuse from the CQC and the other institutions involved: obstruction and putting on the frighteners to ensure nothing gets out and then, when it does, platitudes followed by a complete absence of practical help.

Lawyers and the compensation culture are part of the problem.  Managers are not allowed to admit fault, malpractice or negligence in case victims and their families sue. Funding shortage contributes to care failures in the first place and paying compensation further reduces available funding. When the facts do finally become public, not via the CQC which has its own tracks to cover, platitudes are followed by a complete lack of support. Abandoning whistleblowers to their own fate is as much an abuse as failing to tend the elderly.

Yet the CQC needs whistleblowers and should be motivating and supporting them.

Every whistleblower, whether in a care home or hospital seems to suffer the same fate: The anguish of being disloyal to workmates and employers, legal obstruction followed by joblessness.  After all, who would want to employ a troublemaker?  So who would want to be a whistleblower?

This has a simple solution.  Apart from those few cases where the whistleblower is crying wolf, the whistleblower should always be offered a job by CQC as an inspector.  Who else is better qualified for the job?  And if the CQC needs to sack some of its current dozy inspectors to make room for whistleblowers, so much the better.

Let us join with the evangelist’s celebration of heaven’s joy at the sinner who repenteth. Even since the financial crisis kicked in, we’ve been banging on about the government’s approach to banking regulation, variously irrelevant as the bonkers Vickers proposals, self-contradictory as schemes simultaneously to recapitalise and to promote lending (help to buy, anyone?), and generally panic-stricken throughout.

Four years ago we argued for “the formation of a bad bank and subsequent work-out, which often proves profitable”. Well at last George Osborne has got the email, a few days ago telling reporters in China that he’s asked Rothschilds to make proposals. This would pave the way for RBS to be floated, with a sale of Lloyds signalled for the off following Royal Mail and the Government’s belated rediscovery of the feel-good properties of privatisations.

The most successful example of bad banking came after the Swedish banking bubble of the early nineties. Duff assets were transferred to a couple of asset management companies which in due course sold them off, often at a profit. The Swiss took a similar approach in 2009, as did the NY Fed which created “Maiden Lane” to take over assets from Lehmans and AIG. Indeed we already have something of a bad bank in “UK Asset Resolution”, which recently sold its portfolio of Northern Rock’s dodgy loans to an American consortium including debt recovery specialists.

So why so long to apply this tried and tested approach to RBS? Maybe it’s scale: the egregious Fred Goodwin was celebrated for his commitment to buying the worst business at the top of the market. Maybe it’s politics: the rediscovered merits of privatisations mentioned above, or the prospect of the Scottish independence referendum next September. In which case, why did Osborne rule out selling a stake in RBS this side of the UK’s general election in 2015? We couldn’t say, other than to note that once sinners take up this repenting habit, it becomes far easier for them to change their minds about other errors.

I can't help feeling that there must be a better way to run a continent than this.

The background is that the EU Commissioner, Neelie Kroes, wants to stop the mobile telecoms firms from charging roaming fees. Well, OK, whatever. But Vodafone, one of those companies that will be affected, is arguing that this will or at least could lead to the sort of cooperation among the mobile companies that other parts of the EU will regard as collusion. A cartel even: and the EU can fine a company 10% of global turnover for indulging in something like that.

Now I have no idea whether Vodafone is correct here: but that's not my point. It's what Kroes is arguing back that is:

Ms Kroes’ advisers insist that competition regulators can only assess the impact of the laws once they are passed

I beg your pardon? We have a governance system which cannot even check whether its own proposed laws are actually legal? Do not conflict with other laws they've already passed? We're actually entirely blind as to whether a new law is even possible to implement until after we've passed it?

I submit that this just isn't the way to run acontinent. It's not even the way to run a whelk stall or a bevvy at the brewery tap.

The only other politician I've heard saying something so remarkably obtuse was Nancy Pelosi who said that the only way to deal with the Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) was "We have to pass the bill to find out what's in it". And the monumental cluster.... that is the roll out of the federal health care exchange over the past three weeks shows how good a method of governance that is.

Seriously, we do have Parliaments, they do have debating chambers, they're there in order to discuss laws before they're passed. Perhaps we should try this?

Summary: A shutdown is easiest in Q2

What the chart shows: The chart shows the US Federal Government monthly cash balance over the past ten years

Why is the chart important: One (of many) problems relating to the discussion about the US Federal Government debt ceiling is the monthly pattern of revenue and expenditure. The first three months of the fiscal year – October to December – tend to be deficit months. Only in January ist here usually a cash surplus. But by that time, the cumulative balance is already so deep into the red that it is impossible to catch up. It also means that government spending is quickly hit by the need to restrict expenditures to revenues. With the recent agreement on the debt ceiling, the US government is functioning until February next year. At that stage, there may be a further cliff-hanger of shutdowns and debt ceiling threats – or there may not. But from a government perspective, calendar Q2 is easier to deal with than calendar Q4 or Q1, since revenues tend to exceed expenditures for a brief period.

Tesco, one of Britain's largest supermarkets, has revealed that it threw out 30,000 tonnes of food in the last six months. Customers throw out yet more. Appalling waste caused by the 'pile it high, sell it cheap' capitalist ethic?

Nobody likes waste, particularly those of us in the baby boom generation whose parents had lived through wartime rationing – or those who are old enough to remember it personally. We were brought up with the mantra 'waste not, want not'. Supermarket bosses are no different from the rest of us in that respect, but they have another powerful motive to avoid waste too: it is very bad for the bottom line. Why pay producers for food that goes unsold?

That is why Tesco has actually done a survey of what customers actually ditch, going through 10,000 dustbins in their research (ugh!). It seems that 65% of bagged salad is discarded, for example. The result of that? Probably, smaller bags being put on sale from now on. And clearer instructions on food packaging about how to keep it fresh.

There are many other reasons why so much food is wasted, though. In most cases it cannot be put into pig swill any more, because of the risk of animal diseases that might affect humans, though a bit goes to local zoos. Then there is the absurd 'best by' and 'sell by' labelling – you can blame government for that, of course.

Actually, we waste a lot less food than our wartime and postwar parents did. My mother's dustbin used to be full of potato peelings and the outer garbage of cabbages and other vegetables. Now, these are used and recycled and only the best bits reach our homes. Packaging too helps keep food fresh by protecting it from bruising and from the air.

The counterintuitive fact is that, thanks to capitalism, we actually have a system that produces food so efficiently that we don't actually mind throwing it out if it looks and tastes a bit elderly. If only we could spread this production system to other places in the world where food is scarce and expensive because it is not produced efficiently at all. Again, you can blame governments in those countries for resisting the market economy, and out own EU authorities for trying to protect their own famers behind trade walls, for that crime – not a crime against food, but against humanity.