The Pin Factory Blog

US District Court Judge Susan Bolton has torn apart Arizona’s controversial anti-immigration law, due to take effect today, giving the power of stop and search without a warrant on suspicion of a person being in the country illegally. She said it violates the supremacy clause reserving immigration to Washington. It may also violate the fourth amendment, against unreasonable searches without a warrant. Naturally, Arizona disagrees.

Besides issues of law and liberty, there’s an economic elephant in the room. Up to 150,000 illegal immigrants in Arizona are involved in an underground economy, being paid cash-in-hand and untaxed. They do the odd-jobs no one else wants. Like California, the Arizonan economy relies on illegal immigrants for jobs Americans hate, whilst being paid next to nothing.

SB1070 creates two problems for our elephant. The black economy will disappear as illegal immigrants flee (numbers dropped by 100,000 since 2008). A myriad of unwanted jobs will appear that Americans will refuse to work. Only 8% of Americans don’t finish High School, rising to half of illegal immigrants. Let’s face it, what High School graduate wants to clean toilets? The support immigrants provide will be lost causing falling productivity.

Moreover, there’s the cost. If every Arizona policeman ascertains a person’s immigration status at every search or arrest, it will divert taxes to an issue which isn’t even a state matter. The cost to ensure correct identification will be huge, let alone the lawsuits by legal immigrants or citizens claiming these detentions are unreasonable.

Perhaps an amnesty on working illegal immigrants should be declared, or a fast-track to legality. The benefits of offering this to productive immigrants would extend from the provision of labour to enforcing taxation. Illegal immigrants contribute 55% of Arizona’s sales tax, and 500,000 more income taxes would be welcomed. Arizona even gains when spending is pitched against taxes from immigrants.

If the state persists with the measure it’ll have consequences to state funds, supply of unskilled labourers and public opinion. A Senate and Gubernatorial election are looming; Republicans have swung right on this issue, but activists won’t be happy with the costs.

A storm is brewing in the American grassroots and its full force has yet to be unleashed. Since the Tax Day protests on April 15th 2009, the Tea Party movement has grown in membership and notoriety. The effects of their activism and volunteering on the Republican Party are growing and this primary season has seen the Scott Brown effect mirrored across the nation, changing the nature of these mid-term elections.

President Obama’s approval rating is surprisingly low (44% on 13/08, Source: Gallup) – as they say, what goes up must come down. The Tea Partiers are the counter-revolution that came from Obama’s socialist-tendencies, drawing anger from what they see as a kind of relative deprivation. The freedom and finance that they have lost post-Obama puts them in a comparatively less advantaged social status to that pre-Obama. This change in social hierarchy whether only perceived or real has given the conservative grassroots a huge boost.

The question is which way the storm will blow next, and whether it will become a hurricane. Tea Partiers have been using a precinct strategy to take over the lower echelons of the Republican Party in Nevada whilst playing on their libertarian streak in South Carolina, refusing partisan alliances. National organisations and federations are providing support, lending resources in the fight against taxation, socialised medicine and curbs on liberty. After much hard work and fighting the stigma of the much of the media, the primary elections have arrived.

Republicans have suffered nationwide with charismatic independent candidates winning huge voter approval, from Rand Paul in Kentucky to Marco Rubio in Florida. The New York 23rd special election in November 2008 split the right and put principles above party loyalties. This year something much bigger is at stake. Every House seat and 33 in the Senate are up for grabs and the Tea Party is destroying traditional and incumbent Republicans. We need to start talking about the future of American politics, the party system and the importance of individuals. Is this the change we should believe in?