1.6m More Tory Votes By Building Homes & Levelling Up

A new poll from C|T Local, Sir Lynton Crosby’s real estate advisory business, and the Adam Smith Institute, finds that Conservatives could achieve majority-securing electoral boost by building more homes

• 1.6 million vote boost for Conservatives building more homes in a way that levels up, securing the 2019 majority at the next general election

• 75% of those who would like to purchase a home in the next 5 years say they cannot afford to or are unsure if they can

• 71% would back housebuilding if local residents had the power to agree when they were confident it would benefit their community 

• 52% back higher national targets for house building, 18% disagree

• 60% back a ‘zoning system’ with ‘Protection,’ ‘Renewal,’ and ‘Growth’ categories, 10% oppose

• 52% support building more homes if it will reduce wealth inequality between older people and younger people

Members of Parliament (MPs) from across England and planning reform advocates have backed new research which shows how to fix the housing crisis with popular local support.

"Housebuilding is a key driver of levelling up. It’s not just about building more homes, it’s about building for sustainable local economic growth,” said Ben Everitt MP for Milton Keynes North and Chair of the APPG for Housing Market & Housing Delivery. “Houses are the hardest, slowest and most expensive part of the recipe for success, but having the right homes in the right place, at the right time will be fundamental to delivering levelling up. It’s too important to not get right."

The polling and analysis, outlined in Build Me Up, Level Up: Popular homebuilding while boosting local communities from C|T Local and the Adam Smith Institute (ASI), presents a roadmap for how to restart the stalled planning reform process by linking it closely to rejuvenating local communities.

• 67% back housebuilding if it would bring benefits to their family 

• 68% back housebuilding if it meant local services would see an improvement

• 64% back housebuilding if it would help protect their local high street

• 64% back housebuilding if it led to people living closer to better paying jobs, reducing income inequality and boosting wages

• 62% back housebuilding if it meant greater investment in local health and education services

“This powerful research demonstrates that we won’t be able to build the houses that Britain needs unless we ensure that communities benefit,” said Mark Jenkinson MP for Workington, “It starts with using new housing developments to invest in community-wide infrastructure like roads, public transport, broadband, hospitals, and schools. Turning development into a win-win for locals.”

The research indicates that the Conservatives have the most to gain from housebuilding, or to lose if they fail. 

• The Conservatives could get a 5 percentage point boost at the ballot box, the equivalent of 1.6 million people switching their vote, if they commit to building 2 million new homes. 

• If Labour made a similar housing commitment, they would receive a 4 point bounce, and there would be a 3 point decline for the Conservatives.

"Housing reform is absolutely essential if Britain's long-held dream of a property-owning democracy is going to succeed, and this research by the Adam Smith Institute shows it can, providing it's done the right way,” said John Penrose MP (Weston-super-Mare). “There are plenty of people who will support building more local homes if it helps their friends and family afford to live where they want, and if local residents control where they're built and how they look."

The research also found that it is possible to win over many ‘Nimbys’ — Not In My Back Yard opponents of local house building — by delivering local benefits from development. Nimbys can be persuaded to support more building in their area if the homebuilding leads to:

• more investment in local services;

• more young people to move out of their parents’ homes;

• more people living and working in the community;

• a reduction of the overall cost of housing in the area; and

• a reduction of the cost of rents in the area.

C|T Local and the ASI find strong support for a range of initiatives to tackle the housing crisis, including:

• 60% support a ‘zoning system’ proposed in the Government’s Planning for the Future white paper; 

• 52% support for the ‘Infrastructure Levy’ replacing affordable housing requirements

• 58% support reducing red tape to help smaller and medium-sized builders

• 75% support building on brownfield (former industrial) sites  

• 63% support allowing villages to build new homes nearby, if they choose

• 58% support automatic permission for converting offices and 48% support converting high street shops

• 58% back automatic permission for mansard extensions, just 22% disagree

• 48% support ‘street votes’, just 22% disagree

Other key findings include:

• 52% have an incorrect understanding of what the Green Belt, 14% cannot say what it is at all

• 54% of those who feel their area has improved in recent years support more homebuilding in their local community

• The polling shows that Nimbys are louder, but less electorally impactful than politicians believe. They are more likely to attend town halls and send a letter / email to their local councillor, but Yimbys are more likely to vote for a party that will build more homes locally, and they outnumber Nimby’s by more than two-to-one

C|T Local Managing Director, Gavin Stollar said:

“This research is the most explicit roadmap ever produced for both Government and the real estate sector. The public tell us how they can be persuaded to come on the (house building) journey but also, crucially, why that journey is so important and fascinatingly, why it is in all political parties' interest to deliver. Communities across the UK are there to be convinced, the question now is, are developers prepared to listen and respond and are the Government prepared to legislate to ‘get it done’?”

ASI Head of Research Matthew Lesh said:

“The future of the Conservative Party may very well depend on building enough homes. Just like Thatcher’s Right to Buy revolution created a generation of Tory voters, a big building revolution from Boris could expand the property owning democracy, a stake in society, and a grounding in place to another generation. This would be wildly electorally popular, not only among those locked out of a home, but also existing homeowners if combined with direct benefits to existing communities.”

Chair of the London Assembly Andrew Boff said:

“This important research highlights that new housing can be electorally attractive if developers demonstrate that local communities will benefit too.”

PricedOut director Anya Martin said:

"People know that our decades of failure to build enough homes have led to worsening affordability, and are fed up. Far from a nation of NIMBYs, many people actively support building more in their area. But our broken planning system privileges the tiny minority of vocal anti-housing voices, at the expense of those who need and want homes. “

Just Build Homes founder and former adviser to Boris Johnson, Alex Crowley said:

“There’s been majority support for building more homes for years. But our planning system excludes these voices and works only for the minority of existing homeowners who want to pull up the ladder behind them. This research shows there are rich electoral gains for politicians – Conservatives in particular – who position themselves on the side of renters who aspire to own. Who’s going to grab that opportunity?”

YIMBY Alliance’s John Myers said:

“It is unsurprising that giving people control and incentives makes them much more enthusiastic about building more. It is high time for the housing ministry to innovate, not least by learning from other countries and from history.”

Former Head of Housing at Policy Exchange and Senior Fellow at the ASI Ben Southwood said: 

“The British public are not anti housing, but they do have concerns about developments that they do not control, that do not benefit local people, and that harm the character of their neighbourhoods. This is why there is strong support for ‘street votes’, which would give them control and any upside, allowing sustainable and walkable development in the places with the toughest housing shortages.”

Create Streets Fellow Samuel Hughes says:

“The British public is sometimes caricatured as hostile to any new development. This research reveals a far more nuanced picture: people are open to building that complements existing character, and to building that they control and benefit from. This is shown in the overwhelming support for street votes and mansard extensions, a groundbreaking result of huge policy significance.”

Notes to editors: 

• The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world. 

  • For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact our press line,  john@adamsmith.org | 07584778207

• C|T Local is a corporate transactional and project advisory consultancy across real estate, property development and infrastructure. We advise on and understand how local, regional and national government operates and interconnects with the elected and public officials, customers, stakeholders, the media and the public.

  • For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact our press line, local@ctgroup.com | 020 7318 5770

2.1 Million Vulnerable Unvaccinated

Raft of measures proposed to protect human life and liberty as Covid-19 becomes endemic

• 50,000+ UK lives saved in the most recent wave of cases thanks to a “vaccine dividend”

• UK has fallen behind France in the vaccine race

• Stalled progress and lack of children vaccinated means developed nations like Italy, Ireland, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Spain, Portugal and Malta and more are stealing a march on vaccination and a return to normal life 

• 2.1 million vulnerable (“Phase I”) individuals still entirely unvaccinated and 600,000 yet to have their second dose

• 10.4 million adults remain entirely unvaccinated

• If unvaccinated rate stays the same this could result in 148,000 hospital admissions and 39,600 deaths from Covid alone

• Rising Covid case numbers disrupt other care, resulting in longer term but preventable chronic disease, mental health challenges and missed cancers 

A new paper from the Adam Smith Institute calls for an urgent need to redouble vaccine efforts — as hospitals are alarmed by rising Covid cases and Government advisors discussing a new  ‘firebreak’ lockdown. 

Rising case numbers, because of lack of boosters, puts pressure on hospitals resulting in long term chronic disease, mental health and cancers missed will result in thousands suffering long-term. This is already being seen in Labour-run Wales with the North Wales Betsi Cadwaladr Health Board announcing that it was restricting access to hospitals in the region, SNP-run Scotland where two boards are warning of significant pressures, and will soon be seen similarly in England where the Conservative UK Government has responsibility for the health service.

The ASI wants the UK to adapt to a world where Covid cases are a fact of life but mitigatable for most by increasing vaccination rates and embracing booster jabs while rejecting another damaging lockdown and other restrictions on personal liberty like ‘vaccine passports’.

Extending vaccinations

The ASI are proposing to redouble efforts to vaccinate the millions in the “Phase 1” vulnerable group who have missed their second appointment or who are completely unvaccinated, with mobile vaccinations units and home visits — protecting those most likely to be hospitalised or die. They also offer a range of other campaign enhancements including offering booster shots to all adults, purchasing updated vaccines for the Delta variant and investing in advance-orders of promising next-generation vaccine technologies. This, they say, is necessary to help prevent a surge in cases over the coming months leading to demands for further lockdowns.

They also want to see the Government adopt a ‘mix-and-match’ strategy to vaccination and ensure the regulatory system is capable of quickly and safely approving new and updated vaccines. Children aged over 12 should also be offered a vaccine, with parental/guardian consent and without coercion or implied restrictions, the authors say. The entire population should be offered a flu shot to limit winter pressures on the NHS. They would also like pharmacies and private doctors to be able to purchase and offer vaccines.

Looking forward, there is a call to publish a detailed roadmap including delivery schedule of vaccines over the coming years.

Taking every step possible

The ASI would like the Government to invest more extensively and publicly in emerging treatments against Covid-19. The UK has orders of monoclonal antibody therapy Ronapreve, however has not ordered any Sotrovimab, despite GSK being a London-headquartered firm. By contrast, the European Union has ordered 220,000 doses of Sotrovimab. 

The ASI also points to the need to secure advance orders of antiviral treatments such as Pfizer’s PF-07321332/Ritonavir and ensure orders of other emerging drugs such as fluvoxamine. 

They would also like to see encouragement of ventilation in public and private spaces and the continuation of al fresco dining to help reduce the spread of the virus; along with encouragement of masks with respirators, such as N95, KN95, FFP3, and FFP2, for those most vulnerable from the virus.

Protecting liberties

The paper, Life with Covid: Boosting Vaccines, Injecting Resilience and Protecting Liberty, rejects further lockdowns or state-mandated ‘vaccine passports’ as a serious infringement on liberty. 

They are also calling for the ‘Coronavirus Act’ to be scrapped and the ‘traffic light’ travel restrictions to be simplified — removing all requirements for ‘Green’ countries, reducing requirements for ‘Amber’ countries, while tightening a more focused ‘Red’ list to essential travel only to protect against future variants. 

The Rt Hon Andrew Mitchell said:

“ASI have produced a thoughtful and stimulating paper which should be read by all those who care about how our country returns to normal and respects the civil liberties of us all“

ASI Senior Fellow and report co-author, James Lawson, said:

“Vaccines are our best weapon to win the war against Covid and return to normality. Our top priority should be to vaccinate the millions of “Phase 1” vulnerable who are receptive to receiving vaccines but have yet to get jabbed. As existing protection wanes over time, we also urgently need to offer boosters to those already vaccinated, especially in more vulnerable groups. We can strengthen and improve the vaccination campaign, helping to develop much greater societal resilience against Covid and other illnesses. Lastly, we must learn to live with the virus - restoring the personal liberties we have lost, ending the Coronavirus Act, and rejecting state-sanctioned discrimination through vaccine passports. It would be a tragedy to permit COVID to cause enduring erosion of our personal freedoms. It would be a tragedy to win the war but lose the peace through the enduring erosion of our freedoms.”  

ASI Head of Research and report co-author, Matthew Lesh, said:

“Covid is here to stay but the era of locking down and restricting liberties must come to an end. While Matt Hancock might have been distracted by his own issues to sort out the Pingdemic and get the vaccination rate up, the same cannot be said of Sajid Javid who is now months into the job. The Government has taken their eyes off the ball when it comes to boosters, procuring new treatments and next-generation vaccine technology. It’s incumbent upon our political leaders to take every step they can to avoid demands for new restrictions.”

Notes to editors: 

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact our press line, john@adamsmith.org | 07584667326

• The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

• The report ‘Life with Covid: Boosting Vaccines, Injecting Resilience and Protecting Liberty’ will be live on the Adam Smith Institute website from Sunday 12th September AT 22:00 and is available here in advance.

NEW POLL: Brits back freer movement with New Zealand

• 63% of Brits back a free trade deal with freer movement with New Zealand, 8% oppose

• 69% of Brits support mutual recognition of qualifications of doctors, nurses and teachers, 8% oppose

A new poll from the Adam Smith Institute and C|T Group RSR confirms that Brits are eager to strike a trade deal with New Zealand which includes freer movement and mutual recognition of qualifications. 

The UK is currently negotiating a trade agreement with New Zealand, which is expected to be the second from-scratch-deal since Brexit. The first deal, with Australia, including a commitment to expanding youth mobility and recognising qualifications.

Sixty-three percent of Brits polled said that they support the UK agreeing a free trade deal with New Zealand, that will lead to more opportunities for Brits to move to New Zealand, and New Zealanders to move to Britain while only 8% opposed and 21% neither support nor oppose.

There is sixty percent or more support for freer movement across all major political parties, including Labour (60%), and Conservatives (73%) and Remainers (63%) and Leavers (74%). There is also majority support across all regions. 

Even more, 69% of Brits support a free trade deal that recognises qualifications of trained professionals from New Zealand. With such an arrangement, nurse Jenny McGee from New Zealand, who helped save Boris Johnson’s life, wouldn’t have to retrain as a medical professional after moving to the UK. Again, this is reflected across all regions and political parties. 

An earlier poll from C|T Group RSR and the ASI found that 61% of Brits back more trade with New Zealand, with just 3% wanting less trade. That poll also found that 69% believe that New Zealand has very high or fairly high food and animal rights standards, just 3% thought New Zealand has low standards.

This Ancestry visa allows individuals in the Commonwealth with a single British-born grandparent, largely benefiting white people in Australia, New Zealand and Canada. This restricts access for those of the first nations, Maori, and aboriginal peoples.

The Adam Smith Institute’s Deputy Director and member of the UK Government’s Strategic Trade Advisory Group Matthew Kilcoyne said:

“It's time for Priti Patel to walk away from the Home Office’s long standing opposition to freer movement with our antipodean cousins. A trade deal with New Zealand that includes freer movement would right an historical wrong, that benefits citizens mainly of one ethnic group while excluding Maori citizens, and back the British public's desire to see freer movement as part of any FTA. 

Michael Turner Head of Research (Director) at C|T Group RSR and a Fellow of the ASI, said:

“The strength of support is overwhelming. This polling clearly shows that the UK is outward-looking, eager to grab the opportunities offered by Brexit, and create a more open and prosperous society”

Notes to editors: 

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact our press line, info@adamsmith.org | 07584778207

• The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

• The ASI is part of an international alliance of think tanks and advocacy groups who back free movement of goods, capital and people with a job or study offer between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

• The full polling tables can be downloaded here.

Pension Triple Lock Suspension: welcome but not enough

In response to the announcement of the Government’s triple lock suspension, Adam Smith Institute’s Head of External Affairs Morgan Schondelmeier said:

“The Government’s suspension of the triple lock is welcome — but it doesn’t go nearly far enough. The pension triple lock should be scrapped entirely.

“This morning came the stick, and now the Government dangles the measliest of carrots to the working people of this country by acknowledging that a pension hike of near 8% is unfair and unsustainable. What was at first a welcome relief to pensioner poverty is now an entitlement for a generation that has already taken more from the state than they put in.

“Working age people have seen their incomes stall over the last decade while pensioners have gotten an unfair boost averaging around 3.0% per year. Taking from the working young in a ponzi scheme to support the rich must come to an end.”

Notes to editors: 

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact our press line, john@adamsmith.org | 07584667326

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

National Insurance Hike: broken promise and broken policy

In response to the announcement of the Government’s health and social care levy, Adam Smith Institute’s Head of Government Affairs John Macdonald said:

“Today’s announcement marks a historic betrayal from a supposedly Conservative Government that promised to not raise taxes.

“It’s morally bankrupt to ask poorer workers to bailout millionaire property owners. This is a kick in the teeth for all the young working people of this country who have already been hard done by the pandemic. 

“And it risks bankrupting Brits financially, too. It is disastrous to put a tax on employment just as we begin to recover from a historically large recession.

“Throwing more money into a broken social care system will not fix the fundamental problems. We need a serious discussion about how to stimulate private-sector investment and personal responsibility, not simply more cash and state involvement.”

Notes to editors: 

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact our press line, john@adamsmith.org | 07584667326

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

Stay with markets, protect the environment, save lives

Nuclear energy, carbon taxes and clean free trade key to achieving UK’s environmental goals

• Markets not socialist economies must be embraced to solve climate change

• A renewable-only energy grid would cost £2.9 trillion in backup battery capacity, 135% of the UK’s annual economy — nuclear energy is key to clean, affordable power

• Carbon taxes, not subsidies, regulations and bans, can solve climate change

• Post-Brexit Britain risks becoming rule taker in environmental trade and falling behind in  technology unless it reduces costs and barriers 

In the run-up to the UK hosting the COP26 climate change conference, a new report from the Adam Smith Institute (ASI) and British Conservation Alliance (BCA) argues that free markets must play a central role in addressing environmental challenges.

The ASI and BCA propose three key market-based policies to help achieve the UK’s environmental goals: embracing nuclear energy, implementing a border-adjusted carbon tax and practicing clean free trade.

Nuclear

Nuclear power represents a safe, cost-effective, efficient, and emission-free means of energy production that can address key issues with the UK’s energy grid. Existing renewable options— solar and wind power—remain hampered by lack of storage capacity and grid inertia generation. 

With reforms to the way we finance new nuclear plants, the UK could more effectively harness nuclear power to meet its Net Zero by 2050 goal.

Border adjusted carbon tax

Carbon taxes enjoy strong support from economists across the political spectrum as an effective means of tackling pollution. They force polluters to shoulder the cost of environmentally damaging production and provide a strong incentive to innovate towards low-carbon alternatives.

Rather than the government picking winners and losers through subsidies, the UK should use border-adjusted carbon taxes to ensure a level playing field. At the same time, it must lower more damaging taxes such as corporation or income tax and explore carbon dividend payments to ensure Brits are not left worse off.

Clean free trade

As the Government strikes new post-Brexit trade deals, they also have the opportunity to become a global leader in clean free trade by abolishing tariffs and quotas on all goods that the OECD designates as having environmental significance and seeking membership of pacts such as the Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS).

The report also examines the poor environmental record of state-led, socialist economic models, finding that greater government control of the economy leads to overexploitation of resources and more environmentally damaging forms of production.

By contrast, market environmentalism is a proven alternative to radical ‘degrowth’ proposals that would impoverish Brits and millions of the world’s poorest.

Free markets reward the innovations that help us produce more with less, protect valuable land through strong property rights, and most importantly create the prosperity that gives us the means and motive to improve our environment.

Connor Tomlinson, report author and Policy Director for the British Conservation Alliance said:

“As the government’s policy purview turns to post-pandemic life, this paper demonstrates the benefits of taking a market-led approach to solve environmental issues. It is my hope that this paper contributes to policies which meet the government’s net zero emissions target of 2050 without unduly burdening British taxpayers. Market environmentalist initiatives deliver practical solutions to limiting our carbon footprint while simultaneously further improving the living standards across the globe.

“This practical policy framework should provide incentives for government and the private sector to make changes which ensure a cleaner, freer future.”

Matthew Lesh, head of research at the Adam Smith Institute said:

“Nitpicky regulations and banning the likes of gas boilers and petrol cars are the policy tools of the top-down socialist. Climate change is a real problem but will not be solved by politicians picking winners. We need a market-centric approach that emphasises innovation and properly costing externalities. 

“This paper is calling for a reset in the way the governments of the United Kingdom, both central and devolved, think about the environment. It’s not about throwing away free market principles, it’s about using the power of markets to achieve environmental goals.

-ENDS- 

Notes to editors:  

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact John Macdonald, Head of Government Affairs, john@adamsmith.org | 07584 667326.

The report ‘It’s Easy Being Green: Embracing Nuclear Energy, a Border-Adjusted Carbon Tax, and Clean Free Trade’ will be live on the Adam Smith Institute website from TUESDAY, 31 AUGUST AT 10.00PM and is available here in advance.

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

Pingdemic hits 6.2 million people since May

The Adam Smith Institute estimates 6.2 million people have been asked to isolate by app or contacted by Test and Trace since the start of May. 

• The number of people asked to self-isolate in the last week is 1.7 million (14-21 July) across the entire United Kingdom, up from 1.2 million in the previous week (7-14 July).

• 6.2 million people have been contacted by the app or test and trace and asked to isolate since the start of May.

• The ‘Pingdemic’ has resulted in about a 15% reduction in people using the app between 7 and 14 July. No doubt many fewer again today. This means about 105k fewer notifications then there would have otherwise been between 7 and 14 May.

• Looking forward, we can project about 2.1 million people to be asked to isolate next week based on current case growth rate.

• Each case is leading to 5.09 people being 'pinged'.

Matthew Lesh, Head of Research at the Adam Smith Institute, said:

“The 'Pingdemic' is causing substantial financial distress and threatening the viability of thousands of businesses. Supermarket shelves are empty, bins not being picked up and factories being shut down. “

“Ten days of self-isolation for people who have been fully vaccinated is totally farcical. There should be reduced requirements so people can get back to work and their lives as quickly as possible.”

Notes to editors:

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact our press line, info@adamsmith.org | 07584778207

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

National insurance hike: a crushing betrayal and attack on younger and poorer

In response reports suggesting the Government will increase national insurance to fund a social care expansion, the ASI’s Head of Government Affairs John Macdonald said:

A national insurance hike would be a crushing betrayal of millions of Tory voters. It is an unfair attack on younger and poorer hard working Brits. Hiking taxes will prolong Covid economic suffering by destroying jobs and crushing businesses — which could ultimately mean less tax revenue for public services. 

Throwing money at social care will do little to solve the fundamental, structural issues. We need more private sector investment and a new model of insurance, not throwing fuel on a dumpster fire. 

The state has grown large enough over the last two years. If anything, a Conservative Government should be trying to abolish national insurance to allow people to keep more of their earnings and speed up the post-Covid recovery. 

Notes to editors:

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact Matt Kilcoyne, matt@adamsmith.org | 07584778207

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

Boris Joins 1.73 Million Isolating In Pingdemic

The Adam Smith Institute estimates 1.73 million people are currently isolating across the UK due after being pinged by app or contacted by Test and Trace as Boris Johnson u-turns on isolating

• 1.73 million people currently isolating after being pinged by Matthew Hancock’s NHS app or contacted by Test and Trace

• 5.8 million people forced to isolate since start of May

• If the Government does not change approach, the weekly isolation figure could increase to 5.2 million people by mid-August

Adam Smith Institute analysis projects 1.73 million people are currently isolating after being pinged by the app or contacted by a test and trace service across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

This comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak have been forced to isolate after Health Secretary Sajid Javid tested positive for Covid-19. This is despite both others being double jabbed, less likely to get the virus and highly unlikely to suffer a serious bout of Covid-19.

ASI analysis has found that 5.8 million people have been forced to isolate since the start of May. The ASI is projecting that as many as 5.2 million people could be forced to isolate by the app and test and trace by mid-August, based on the current case trajectory.

The pingdemic has resulted in thousands of businesses shutting their doors and reducing operations, due to large numbers of staff having to isolate. The lost revenue just as the Treasury is taking away Covid-19 support programs risks the closure of many businesses and the needless transformation of a viral risk from Covid-19 into a credit risk across the economy. 

Office for National Statistics figures suggest one quarter of isolators face financial hardship. This means fully vaccinated individuals are being forced to decide between a real risk of lost livelihood and a much lower risk of having or passing along the virus. 

The ASI is calling on the Government to take a risk-based approach to isolation, including reduced requirements for fully vaccinated individuals and those who have not had substantial exposure to an infected individual. 

Matthew Kilcoyne, Deputy Director at the Adam Smith Institute, says: 

“Boris Johnson is just one of millions who are being forced to isolate, despite being double vaccinated. The Prime Minister will carry on working and getting paid, but millions don’t have the luxury of working from home or having flexible shifts. 

“NHS app and test and trace induced isolation is causing substantial financial distress and threatening the viability of thousands of businesses, as large numbers of staff are forced to isolate. Freedom Day will mean quite the opposite for 1.7m currently locked away and the millions more over the coming weeks who will be told to isolate despite posing little risk to others.”

Note to editors:

For further comments or to arrange an interview, contact Matt Kilcoyne: matt@adamsmith.org | 07584778207.

The Adam Smith Institute is a free market, neoliberal think tank based in London. It advocates classically liberal public policies to create a richer, freer world.

The ASI estimates that each case leads to 5.76 individuals isolating based on data from previous weeks across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. This includes 3.05 from the app and 2.34 contacted directly by test and trace services.

Salt & sugar taxes could cost shoppers up to £4.8 billion each year

Henry Dimbleby's National Food Strategy has proposed sugar and salt taxes on everyday staples that may see every household forking out an extra £172 per year to the taxman. 

Dimbleby predicts the tax would cost households between £2.9 and £3.4 billion per year, but think tank estimates put this far higher. A comprehensive tax on salt and sugar consumed could mean a £4.8 billion tax bill.

The recommendation of a £3/kg tax on sugar and a £6/kg tax on salt in processed foods is expected to increase prices on everyday essentials. Foods affected by the tax could include store cupboard staples such as jam, ketchup and cereals, which could increase in price by almost a half. The tax could also see the price of chocolate bars increase by almost a quarter, multipacks of sweets by almost a third, and crumpets by almost a quarter. 

The tax could be felt in restaurants and takeaways, increasing the cost of a dozen Krispy Kreme doughnuts by around 50p and a Domino’s pizza by more than 30p. This could be particularly difficult to tax in small restaurants, where quantifying the amount of salt and sugar used in every dish is burdensome.

Despite backing away from a potential additional tax on meat, the report demands a reduction in meat consumption, with the salt and sugar tax hitting products like bacon, corned beef and sausage rolls.

The TaxPayers’ Alliance, Adam Smith Institute, and Institute of Economic Affairs argue the proposals would target consumers, food manufacturers and the already struggling hospitality industry. It would be deeply regressive and see food items become either tasteless or reduced in portion sizes. 

Examples of food impacted by the tax:

• Breakfast staples like strawberry jam and frosted cornflakes could become around 46 and 33 per cent more expensive (£1.25 to £1.82 and £3.50 to £4.66) respectively.

• Storecupboard sauces like ketchup and soy sauce could become around 23 and 43 per cent more expensive (£1.99 to £2.44 and £0.60 to £0.86) respectively.

• Treats like Skittles and Twix bars could become around 32 and 25 per cent more expensive (£1.50 to £1.99 and £1.25 to £1.56) respectively.

• Snacks like brownies and chocolate digestives could become around 21 and 18 per cent more expensive (£1.65 to £1.99 and £1.35 to £1.59) respectively.

• Lunchtime choices like crumpets and jarred sandwich spread could become around 24 and 14 per cent more expensive (£0.25 to £0.31 and £1.70 to £1.93) respectively.

• Family dinners like pizzas and pasta sauce could become around 15 and 6 per cent more expensive (£3.50 to £4.02 and £1.75 to £1.86) respectively.

• Takeaways like Krispy Kreme doughnuts and Domino’s could become around 3 and 1.5 per cent more expensive (£15.75 to £16.22 and £20.99 to £21.32) respectively.

John O’Connell, Chief Executive of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said: 

"This is yet another case of middle-class meddling that will hit the poorest families hardest, as this madcap scheme will hike up costs of everyday essentials. 

“Not only do the high priests of the nanny state think that ordinary folk can't look after themselves, they also can't resist dipping their hands into taxpayers' pockets. 

“The government must reject outright any tax hikes and instead trust British families to make their own choices."

Dr Eamonn Butler, Director of the neoliberal think tank the Adam Smith Institute, says:

“We thought the nanny state had died during the pandemic, but the blob marches on thanks to a man whose privilege blinds him to the blight his proposed policies would inflict on a nation that does not want his prescription.

“Boris needs to stand up for the consumer interest and say that there is no benefit for ordinary families from increasing the cost of food while ruining its taste. 

“Henry Dimbleby should have looked at how his own firm could bring down the cost of good quality food to the reach of ordinary Britons before he decided to play with everyone else's food.”

Christopher Snowdon, Head of Lifestyle Economics at free market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs said:

“Once again, rich people want to clobber ordinary people with stealth taxes, this time on sugar and salt. By Mr Dimbleby’s own admission, this cash grab will cost consumers £3 billion, but independent analysis suggests it will cost even more.

At a time of rising inflation, after the deepest recession in 300 years, Mr Dimbleby really needs to read the room. He rightly says that a meat tax would be unpopular and regressive. If Boris Johnson is foolish enough to act on these recommendations, he will soon find the same is true of taxing basic nutrients.”