Reports

The Party is Over

Written by | Friday 11 June 2010

Treasury forecasts: the tendencies and consequences of inaccuracy

Written by | Thursday 6 May 2010

In this study, Liam Ward-Proud analyses the accuracy of Treasury budget forecasts for GDP growth by comparing them with the ensuing growth. Examining three different types of forecast, some key trends are found in relation to the correlation, absolute errors and a bias towards overestimation in the sampled forecasts. The consequences for fiscal planning are then spelled out and a solution for mitigating the damage of inaccurate forecasting is put forward.

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Why Britain needs an Economic Responsibility Act

Written by | Wednesday 28 April 2010

This briefing calls on the next government to pass an Economic Responsibility Act, which would place legally binding restraints on government’s fiscal policies. Specifically, it would: (1) cap government spending at one-third of GDP; (2) cap the budget deficit at 3% of GDP; (3) cap the national debt at 40% of GDP; (4) require that off-balance-sheet obligations were fully calculated and openly stated; and (5) allow government to borrow only to invest in capital projects, not to fund current expenditure.

An international development policy that works

Written by | Tuesday 20 April 2010

In An international development policy that works: Why the Conservative Party should rethink its commitment to development aid Sam Bowman argues that the UK Conservatives have failed to propose the radical policy overhaul needed to make the Department for International Development (DFID) an effective body. He suggests scrapping the pledge to spend 0.7% of national GDP on international development aid each year, and focusing instead on private donations, economic migration and unilateral tariff reduction.

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