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Treasury forecasts: the tendencies and consequences of inaccuracy

Type: ReportsWritten by Liam Ward-Proud | Thursday 06 May 2010

In this study, Liam Ward-Proud analyses the accuracy of Treasury budget forecasts for GDP growth by comparing them with the ensuing growth. Examining three different types of forecast, some key trends are found in relation to the correlation, absolute errors and a bias towards overestimation in the sampled forecasts. The consequences for fiscal planning are then spelled out and a solution for mitigating the damage of inaccurate forecasting is put forward.

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US financial reform: two key mistakes

Type: Think PiecesWritten by Liam Ward-Proud | Tuesday 04 May 2010

In this think piece Liam Ward-Proud examines two Congressional bills, one passed and one under Senate scrutiny, for their proposed reforms in relation to ‘too big to fail’ firms and the regulation of ‘alternative investments’. It is found that on neither issue do the bills get it right; in fact, the Senate bill manifestly enshrines the principle of taxpayer guarantees, showing no commitment to competitive markets. Both bills contain what are argued to be misguided and potentially futile attempts at regulating hedge funds and private equity dealers.

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