Rooms For Debate: Polling on the Housing Crisis, Green Belt and Planning System

The Adam Smith Institute commissioned JL Partners to undertake a poll of the general public and of mortgage holders in England, in order to gather views about the housing crisis, development, and the green belt.

The polling showed that there is an overwhelming belief that there is a housing crisis - both nationally and in local areas. Both groups are concerned about a lack of affordable housing, that young people will be unable to get onto the property ladder, the impact on homelessness, high house prices, and the impact of interest rate increases on mortgages

The findings demonstrated support for building more homes in local areas, if it would increase the availability of affordable housing and if it is designed to fit in with the surroundings. In principle, development on green belt land is met with opposition. However, support can be garnered if local residents directly feel the benefits. 

KEY FINDINGS:

People believe there is a housing crisis

• Over three quarters (77%) believe there is a national housing crisis

• More than half (53%) believe there is a housing crisis in their local area

• The housing crisis is not just confined to London - all regions in England bar one agree that there is a crisis in their local area.

People prefer to expand existing communities over building new communities

• 59% of the general public believe new housing developments should be focused on expanding existing communities 

• Young people in particular are supportive of expanding existing communities over building communities (69% of 18-24 year olds and 66% of 25-34 year olds). This suggests that they have a desire to remain and live in their local communities

The arguments that work best to persuade people of the need for more housing are:

• Young people are currently unable to get onto the housing ladder

• It would counter rising homelessness

• It would counter dramatic house price increases (and for mortgage holders, the threat of rising interest rates)

• It would make local housing more affordable

Navigating the green belt

• More than half (53%) support more housing being built locally. However, this support drops to 25% if the houses were to be built on green belt land

• Our word clouds show that there is a strong feeling that green belt land is a protected green space that needs to be preserved for the benefit of both residents and wildlife

• However, there is net support for development on green belt land if a proportion of profits is given back to local residents

Polling methodology:

The Adam Smith Institute commissioned JL Partners to poll two audiences: a nationally representative sample of the general public in England and a representative sample of mortgage holders in England:

• The fieldwork dates were 4th-11th August.

• Quotas were added to ensure representative data for each sample - to gender, age, region and 2019 general election vote.

• Each sample was weighted back to its own representative population using ONS data.

• The sample was collected using online polling.

• 10 minute duration.

• Margin of error: 3.1% for both mortgage holders and the general public.

Smoke Free Rooms: Reviewing the Recommendations of the FCTC's COP10

This year, the World Health Organisation (WHO)’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) will be meeting in Panama for its 10th Conference of Parties. It will be recommending that the regulation and taxation of tobacco harm reduction technologies- such as heated tobacco and vapes- should be equalised with that of cigarettes.

As this new paper by Maxwell Marlow highlights, this could seriously set back the government’s smoke free by 2030 target, impacting public services, health and tax revenue in the process.

This paper recommends the following:

• The UK’s delegates should vote against the primary recommended policies, and instead seek to uphold the current, evidence-based health policy of the British government;

• Delegates should seek to outline and implement a Swedish-style solution to tobacco harms globally;

• The UK government should open a wider consultation on the legalisation of snus, and on the future of disposal vapes. This should include the implementation of a Deposit Return Scheme for disposable vapes;

• The Department of Health and Social Care should roll-out nicotine pouches and heated tobacco as part of its Stop to Swap scheme, and include any smoker, regardless of intensity of consumption, on it.

Homes for All: A Debt Free Solution to the Housing Crisis

In this innovative new paper, authors Miles Saltiel and Maxwell Marlow outline a fair way to build housing where people want to live, benefitting both local and future residents, and land-owners.

Under the proposed ‘Homes for All’ scheme, the government would use Compulsory Purchasing Orders (CPOs), a legal tool which can be used to compulsorily buy land or property to support development that is in the public interest, to purchase metropolitan green belt land. Shares would be issued to land owners, local residents, central and local Government, which can be traded on the stock market.

We estimate that over the next 15 years, we could build 3.8 million houses and raise £938 billion for the Exchequer.

Polling undertaken by JL Partners for the Adam Smith Institute to measure the popularity of the ‘Homes For All Policy’ found that:

• 43% of those polled supported the scheme if a proportion of the profits were given to the local community- regardless of whether development was on green belt land. Less than ⅓ opposed the scheme.

• Increasing the availability of affordable housing, investment in local government budgets and investment in infrastructure are the three most convincing arguments for the scheme according to those polled.

• The scheme is strongly supported (68%) or slightly supported (55%) by those who had originally answered that they would oppose building in the local area- as long as a proportion of the profits from development are given to the local community and residents. 

• Young people and renters are the most supportive of the scheme. 

Tipping Point: On The Edge of Superintelligence

In this groundbreaking discussion paper, authors Connor Axiotes and Eddie Bolland, make the case for thinking ahead when it comes to artificial superintelligence, recommending we spur innovation, research, and investment into AI companies, whilst also proactively adapting policies to the effects of such a monumental shift in technology.

The paper recommends:

1. Invest in British Computing Resources

a. Allow our existing British public computing power and new exascale capacity to be used by our world leading universities for AI safety work - because universities are being crowded out by private labs with much more access to ‘cloud compute.’

b. The introduction of a new ‘British Compute Reserve.’

2. Setting the UK up for Success

a. Planning reform - build on the green belt, and implement street votes to make the UK a country high skilled AI safety researchers want to live in.

b. Lower corporation tax to an internationally competitive level so that more AI companies want to set up here in the UK.

3. Create a Public Comprehensive AI Monitoring System

a. Begin to monitor the largest AI models. A multilateral and unobtrusive monitoring of lab training runs would systematically track their capabilities and the extent of their alignment, to make sure innovative AI systems are safe and have few harmful emergent properties.

b. Making third-party external audits mandatory for largest/riskiest lab training runs.

4. UK to Lead the World in International Agreements on the Safe Deployment of Advanced AI Systems

a. The UK should take the lead on creating an International Agency for AI (IAAI).

b. A P5 statement on air-gapping nuclear weapons facilities from AI to reduce the chance of accidental nuclear strikes.

c. Lay out the structure and objectives of Bletchley Park’s 2023 AI Safety Summit.

5. Expand Educational Grants and High-Skilled Visa Scheme

a. Increase youth engagement in STEM through tax-credits to private companies to address long term skills shortages.

b. Eliminate obstacles to obtaining the High Potential Individual visa.

c. Align High-skilled Visa schemes with the priorities of prospective applicants to maintain the UK’s position as a global leader in attracting AI talent.

d. Expand university courses alongside changing patterns of demand for priority areas to prevent future skills shortages.

e. Integrate the Adam Smith Institute’s model for visa auction markets.

6. Regulatory Markets for AI

a. The UK should utilise ‘Regulatory Markets’ - private regulatory experts to bring their experience in helping with safety-based, innovation-inducing AI legislation. This would help to solve the knowledge gap between the government and the relevant regulatory body.

7. Government Investment in AI Safety

a. The Great British AI Prizes: cash prizes for open research questions in AI safety, such as ‘how do we stop larger models from hallucinating?’

b. If sovereign capabilities such as a public LLM are sought after, then AI alignment researchers and academics should be able to access them for safety work.

8. Facilitate the Safe Use of APIs for Innovative SMEs and Researchers

a. Enable SMEs and researchers to develop products and carry out safe research through APIs accessed on the research resource.

b. Implement risk based requirements for API access to reduce the risk of misuse and encourage private participation.

9. Effective Procurement to Increase Efficiency and Innovation

a. Introduce Challenge Based Procurement to improve the efficiency and reduce the barriers for smaller 5 firms.

b. The Office for AI should identify opportunities for procurement to support proof of concept work too risky for nationwide deployment.

c. Procurement for AI assurance within the public sector to support private sector firms and ensure safe deployment.

10. Saving Lives with AI-Powered Medicine while Reducing Engineered Pandemic Risk

a. The NHS should invest in Generalist Medical AI capabilities through the NHS AI Lab.

b. Introduction of Three Lines of Defence Structure to ensure the UK is proactively prepared for biosecurity risks.

c. Invest in pathogen monitoring systems and introduction of bio-engineering licences.

11. Implement a Review on the Possible Labour Effects of Future AGI

a. Commission a White Paper on what the introduction of a universal basic income (UBI) or a negative income tax (NIT) would look like in a worst-case scenario;

b. Introduce NIT and UBI trials to prepare for the possibility of AI caused unemployment.

The Price of Everything, the Social Value of Nothing: How the Social Value Act damages British procurement

In this paper, our Director of Research Maxwell Marlow analyses the Social Value Act 2012 and its effects on the procurement process in the UK. The Social Value Act, and accompanying Social Value Model, stipulate over 40 regulations which essentially micromanage British businesses and their operations in order to execute social policy. However, this ups cost, lowers competition for SMEs against incumbents, and adds further waste to the procurement system.

The paper recommends:

1. A new review of the Social Value Act by the Public Accounts Committee, ensuring that it can be evaluated to provide fairness and transparency to SMEs.

2. A review of the reporting metrics for Model Award Criteria (MAC), removing social and economical engineering of companies from criteria.

3. A review of the appropriateness of MACs on a contract-to-contract basis, rather than on whole system proscriptions.

4. The retraction of the Social Value Act.

5. A return to Most Economically Advantageous Tender, from Most Advantageous Tender.

Innovative Answers for Britain's Barriers

In this discussion paper, Dr Madsen Pirie (President, Adam Smith Institute) suggests ten solutions to Britain’s most intractable problems.

Key Suggestions include:

• UK citizens should be given a Health Guarantee card, like a credit card, that guarantees them free treatment, funded by the state. In the event of any delay in access to treatment, the card should be valid for private sector treatment, with a cap on costs similar to those widely used in automotive and housing insurance. Tax deductions should also be introduced for those who use supplementary private insurance to save the state money and resources. 

• The UK should look to follow the example of Finland’s successful Housing First model in order to combat homelessness. Under this system, tenants are housed in apartments, which they help to pay for if they are financially able, whilst receiving support services from trained personnel. Due to the savings to the emergency services which are no longer required, the project’s costs can be recouped over a six year period.

• Abolish the interest surcharge on student loan repayments in order to reduce defaults. Australia - which has a much lower default rate with their student loan system - also has a lower salary threshold for when repayments start (compared to the UK).

Optimising for our Openness: The Economic Effects of Visa Auctions in the UK

In this innovative paper, Duncan McClements (King’s College London Mathematics School) and ASI Fellow Dr Bryan Cheang (Assistant Director and Research Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Governance & Society at King’s College London) explore the application of a visa auction model in the UK.

Executive Summary

•  The current UK visa system is complicated and inefficient, contributing to anaemic growth, stagnant living standards, and a rising tax burden;

• Employers should be allowed to buy visas for prospective workers from overseas by auction, selecting the immigrants who will bring the greatest benefit to Britain;

• Work visa auctions are the most efficient way of admitting any given level of immigration, but some visas could be reserved for professions with high social value, small businesses or particular regions if deemed necessary, and separate routes would be left open for students and family.

• This could hold the overall level of immigration constant while raising £59 billion in direct government revenue (equivalent to a 11p in the pound reduction in the basic rate of income tax) and an additional £27.4 billion in additional tax revenue that would compound for each year the scheme was implemented;

• We also suggest the Tier 1 visa be revived in auction form. We find the revenue maximising quantity of visas to auction to be 338, leading to forecast annual revenue of £73.5 million;

• Finally, we put forth a novel proposal to trial issuing 1000 visas every year by exam to boost innovation and productivity;

• All of these policy proposals are modular – and could be implemented separately or in conjunction. 

‘Shrinking Whitehall’: Radically modernising a cumbersome state

Tim Ambler, Senior Fellow of the Adam Smith Institute, has published a book on radical reforms for Whitehall. ‘Shrinking Whitehall’ undertakes a forensic analysis of Whitehall’s statistics, and outlines key areas for reform.

• The civil service has been long in need of a rigorous overhaul, with its tangled system hindering the efficiency of government.

• Ambler’s work provides a bold direction for policy makers on how to achieve this reform, offering well-researched recommendations that could lead to significant improvements in government performance.

• This provocative examination of our state seeks to widen the Overton window when it comes to what is thought to be possible.

The Rt Hon Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, former Secretary of State at the Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, said of the book:

“Every decade or so an effort is made to reform the public sector. Michael Heseltine had a rather successful go for both Margaret Thatcher and John Major, whilst Francis Maude did an excellent job for David Cameron. Yet like the Hydra slain by Hercules, every time the civil service is cut it seems to grow back even more. This makes Tim Ambler’s book timely and welcome.”

Director of Research of the Adam Smith Institute, Maxwell Marlow, commented:

“In this extensive work, Ambler outlines the brow-sweating inefficiencies of Whitehall and how to fix them. If Britain is to build back better from the pandemic and ensuing economic chaos, it is right that our civil servants are given the structure to ensure effective policy delivery.”

Shrinking Whitehall is available here at our Adam Smith Institute online store.

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NOTES:

• The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect any views held by the publisher or copyright owner. They are published as a contribution to public debate.

• Tim Ambler is Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute. 

For further comments please contact Director of Communications Connor Axiotes on connor@adamsmith.org, or 07584 778207.