Policy in Practice and interesting assumptions about welfare reform

Policy in Practice has done a "report" for the LGA about the effects of welfare changes. The result being that millions will be left wandering the streets apparently:

Over two million poor families will be more than £50 a week worse off by the end of the decade, according to an alarming analysis of welfare cuts, crippling rent rises and looming inflation.

In a bleak assessment of the plight of the poorest families in Britain, the study commissioned by the Local Government Association found that more than 84% of those set to lose £50 a week or more are households with children, either lone parents or couples. Almost two-thirds of them are working households, despite claims from ministers that they wish to create a welfare system that encourages work.

The major factor here is rising private rents while LHA numbers don't rise:

More than 2 million low-paid private renters face an average real-terms loss of £38.49 a week by 2020.

This clearly depends upon some estimation of what future rent rises are going to be. The assumption made in the report is that they will be large. On page 16, from a little under 5% a year to over 6% a year. Cumulative, of course.

ONS has private rental costs rising by less than 2% over the past 12 months.

Yes, probably best that we file this report in that round filing cabinet under the desk then. Certainly, forecasting is necessary for these sorts of things but starting from the current baseline is useful practice.