The nuclear peace
I am fortunate to have lived most of my life during the nuclear peace. The US and the Soviet Union were armed to the teeth with thermonuclear weapons and each had the means to deliver them. Neither wanted Armageddon so it was a stand-off. The closest it came was in October 1961 when Khrushchev was installing nuclear missiles in Cuba, only minutes away from the US. The US stood firm in not permitting such dangers so close to its shores, and Khrushchev backed away and agreed to their removal.
Everyone breathed a sigh of relief, except for Castro, who was quite ready for a nuclear war and felt betrayed by the Soviet withdrawal. That nuclear peace is ending, with lifetime dictators in both Russia and China acting belligerently. War has never been close since 1961. Putin has invaded Ukraine, despite Russia’s agreeing in the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 to permanently guarantee, along with the US, the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine. It seized Crimea in 2014, and invaded Ukraine in 2022.
China, meanwhile, is threatening Taiwan, an independent self-governing democracy for many decades, with invasion and subjugation to its Communist dictatorship.
An interesting scenario to contemplate is one in which both Ukraine and Taiwan demonstrate that they are now nuclear armed. In Islington-BBC circles this would be denounced as ‘provocative,’ ‘destabilizing’ and ‘an affront to world peace.’ The obvious reply is ‘What stability, what peace?’
It is possible that nuclear deterrence could influence Putin’s calculus, especially if Ukraine credibly demonstrated an ability to strike back if further attacks were launched against it. The possible obliteration of Moscow and its major cities would be a credible deterrent. If Russia believed that Ukraine would use nuclear weapons if existentially threatened, it might well pause its aggression. Ukraine’s recent attacks into Russia shows that it is resourceful.
Since it was once itself briefly an independent nuclear power, Ukraine probably has the technological means to nuclear rearmament. If not, Israel might covertly assist them against the supporter of its enemies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Under classic deterrence theory, à la Cold War-era thinking, mutual nuclear capabilities often prevent escalation, as seen with the US and Soviet Union. It would violate the 1970 non-proliferation treaty, as did India, followed by Pakistan, and earlier Israel and South Africa.
Meanwhile, the idea that Taiwan’s possession of nuclear weapons might deter China is based on the classic deterrence theory of mutually assured destruction. If Beijing faced obliteration should China invade Taiwan, it might give them pause for thought.
If Taiwan had a credible nuclear arsenal and second-strike capacity, it might deter a Chinese invasion by raising the cost of conflict to unacceptable levels for Beijing. Even a suspected nuclear program could sow uncertainty in Chinese strategic calculations.
Taiwan pursued nuclear weapons covertly in the past (1960s–1980s) but was shut down under US pressure. It still has the technical capability. It may, indeed, already be covertly developing its own nuclear capability, and it has been developing its own launch systems for ‘space science.’
To supporters of the precarious status quo, a visible nuclear capability would constitute a major and unpredictable risk, but the contrary could be true. Possession of nuclear arms by Ukraine and Taiwan could deter adversaries. It need not even be visible so long as potential aggressors know it is there. Wars take place when the likely response is uncertain. When they know it will follow as night follows day, they will pause.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite its treaty, and China’s suppression of freedom and democracy in Hong Kong, despite its treaty promising them freedom and self-government, show, as Hitler showed earlier, how limited scraps of paper can be when confronted by ruthlessness. Ukraine and Taiwan might better secure peace and security by remembering the old truth: si vis pacem, para bellum (if you want peace, prepare for war).
Madsen Pirie