Tax & Spending Alexander Ulrich Tax & Spending Alexander Ulrich

This sucker could go down

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The UK's credit rating is at risk. Fitch, one of the leading rating companies, could take away the UK’s AAA rating if the government doesn’t take care of its extensive government borrowing. According to Fitch's co-head of global sovereign ratings David Riley, Fitch would have removed the UK from it’s AAA rating if it wasn’t for the fact that they expect the next government to consolidate fiscal policies.

Most embarrassingly, the UK is regarded as the only major economy unable to maintain its present rating. According to Standard & Poor, only 17 countries deserve AAA status. The UK is still amongst these, however it is the only economy with a negative outlook, due principally to a forecast predicting that national debt will rise to 100 percent of GDP! 

The Isle of Man, Liechtenstein, and Luxembourg together with all the Scandinavian countries have better economic ratings than the 5th largest economy in the world. It is imperative that the UK quickly sorts out its finances before it is too late.

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Energy & Environment Nigel Hawkins Energy & Environment Nigel Hawkins

UK energy – clearing the DECCs

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Earlier this month, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) made a raft of announcements, including six draft national policy statements on energy planning issues; the identification of no less than 10 sites for new nuclear-build; and a framework for developing clean coal plants. After 12 years of Government indecision on key energy issues, policy initiatives are coming out in droves as the decks are cleared ahead of the General Election.

Yet, the prospects for new generation investment, except for gas-fired plants, are not bright. On the nuclear front, new nuclear-builsd are heavily dependent on EdF, which has just recruited a new Chief Executive, Henri Proglio: his priority is to cut EdF’s c£23 billion of net debt. Already, EdF’s Constellation Energy investment in the US is under review. Certainly, there is no guarantee that new nuclear-build in the UK will remain high on EdF’s investment priorities - given that no revenues would accrue before 2018. (Memo to Ed Llewellyn, David Cameron’s Chief of Staff – get the boss to meet Proglio sharpish).

The German joint venture for UK new nuclear-build between E.On and RWE looks somewhat flaky, especially as E.On’s net debt has reached £40 billion. Moreover, the recent German election result gives both companies far better nuclear prospects in their homeland. DECC’s great green hope has always been Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), but - despite Vattenfall’s 30MW Schwarze Pumpe oxyfuel demonstration plant in Germany - the technology is many years from full-scale deployment. The costs, too, are very uncertain.

Hence, the outlook for new UK coal-fired generation looks grim especially since all such plants with a capacity of over 300 MW will now need full CCS installation at the outset. With renewable generation projects experiencing serious fund-raising pressures and long-term gas supplies being subject to real uncertainty, closing the UK’s widening energy gap looks very challenging.

Is DECC’s confidence misplaced?

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Politics & Government Dr. Madsen Pirie Politics & Government Dr. Madsen Pirie

Key man in key job?

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Tony Blair's chances of becoming the first president of the European Council are reported to be fading fast. With the horse-trading culture of the European Commission, attention now turns to how the UK might be compensated for failing to secure the top job. The name of David Miliband was raised as a possible candidate for the EU's first 'high representative,' to encourage European countries to show more co-ordination on foreign policy, but the Prime Minister has said he 'couldn't be spared,' and was 'never a candidate.' Now the Evening Standard reports a story from Le Monde that Lord Mandelson's name is being considered for the post.

It would be a bold but controversial choice. Lord Mandelson twice had to resign his cabinet posts after allegations of impropriety, but was cleared of wrongdoing. He had enjoyed a successful stint at the DTI (as it was) and as Northern Ireland Secretary managed to win the trust of all sides. His spell as EU trade commissioner was also a relatively successful one, and with limited room to manoeuvre, he managed to work for generally freer trade.

It would be good for Europe and the world if the high representative were someone with a transatlantic perspective, and someone with a track record in favour of opening trade borders. The danger of Europe setting itself up as a 'counterweight' to the USA and Russia would be diminished if he were appointed. He is an accomplished diplomat and negotiator, and has shown himself quite prepared to back words with deeds when necessary.

His appointment would come at a bad time for the Labour government, and would be seen by some as a public acceptance of the defeat that everyone privately knows is coming.

Madsen Pirie has just published "101 Great Philosophers," summarizing the ideas of significant thinkers.

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Thinkpieces Dr. Madsen Pirie Thinkpieces Dr. Madsen Pirie

The BBC: Auntie or Floozy?

Nobody calls the BBC “Auntie” any more. “Auntie” was an affectionate name for someone who might have been a trifle prim and stuffy at times, but who was basically reliable and behaved herself with decorum. “Auntie” was not the type of person who stayed in Las Vegas hotels, clocked up taxi rides at £200 a time, or who went to town on expensive lunches and dinners.

The revelations concerning the expenses charged by top BBC executives are but the latest in a series of blunders and scandals that seem to beset the corporation. Its image was badly dented by disclosures that it encouraged quiz show callers to make costly calls even after the prizes had already been awarded. Nor was it helped by its handling of the prank calls by Jonathan Ross and Russell Brand, by disclosures that it had made a documentary seem more significant by altering its chronology, or by misrepresenting an apparent row involving Queen Elizabeth.

The bloated expense claims will be taken by the BBC’s critics as further evidence that it cannot be trusted to handle the cash it receives from taxpayers with any sense of responsibility, and that ways of funding it alternative to the licence fee must be found. Certainly some of the claims raise eyebrows. The BBC’s top executives average over £200,000 per year in pay, with many of them earning more than the Prime Minister, yet some of them still find time to claim 70p parking meter charges. And some of their expense claims bear witness to a lifestyle that most of their licence-fee payers can only envy.

Most people struggle with public transport, making the best they can of buses and trains, yet two BBC personnel between them clocked up over £10,000 on taxi bills over a three month period. The BBC defends this, saying that taxis are “more convenient and cost-effective” than public transport. Most people would agree with this, though unable themselves to spend public money on satisfying that convenience.

The claims may not be as exotic as some claimed by MPs, but the same principle is at stake. The public does not like to see those funded by taxpayers living it up while ordinary people have to struggle to get by. It is seen as a bad indicator when a business organization allows bloated expense claims by its personnel, and the same is true of the BBC. Coming after revelations over the huge sums they pay their celebrities, the public is beginning to think that their money is being passed around in buckets. Greater accountability and alternative methods of funding have just moved higher up the agenda.

Published on Telegraph.co.uk here.

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Politics & Government Dr. Madsen Pirie Politics & Government Dr. Madsen Pirie

Official culture

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David Cameron has stressed the need for a cultural change in Britain, and indicated how big a task this will be. Nowhere is this needed more than in officialdom. A report yesterday told how a 67 year-old grandfather was arrested for using one swear word to a council official. Six days after the incident, police staged a dawn raid on his home at 5.35am, made him dress, took him to the station, held him in a windowless cell for 6 hours, took his fingerprints and DNA, and fined him an £80 fixed penalty.

Some might think this an excessive over-reaction, questioning the need for a dawn raid and detention over such an incident. Some might even suggest, as the hapless victim did, that maybe there could be more pressing demands on police time, given the volume of more serious crimes taking place.

What it does illustrate is the culture, both of council officials and of the police. It is indicative of the attitude of bodies which have ceased to regard themselves as public servants and instead regard themselves as masters. The culture of officialdom which engenders such incidents might be a good place for Mr Cameron to start…

Check out Madsen Pirie's new book, "101 Great Philosophers."

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Miscellaneous Tom Bowman Miscellaneous Tom Bowman

Dinner with Sir John Major

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Sir John Major was guest of honour at an Adam Smith Institute dinner at St Stephen's Club in Westminster. Sir John has done a great deal of travelling since he left the Commons, and has seen the tremendous advances made by India and China, and by some Middle East countries. His remarks on the world's probable future development and Britain's place in it were thus extremely well-informed.

He stressed in particular the importance which the rapidly-developing countries are giving to education, and the urgency of ensuring that in the UK, too, education is accorded the importance it needs to secure Britain a place in the forefront of research, development, and economic expansion.

Sir John's speech was a tour de force, showing complete mastery of his subject, and he contributed both eloquence and insight to the lively question and answer session that followed his remarks.

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Tax & Spending Alexander Ulrich Tax & Spending Alexander Ulrich

Tobin Tax or bankrupcy

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During the G20 finance ministers meeting in St. Andrews, the British Prime Minister addressed the G20 countries to implement a worldwide tax on financial transactions. Gordon Brown's argued for the imposition of a multi-billion pound tax on international transactions is to get "a better economic and social contract to reflect the global responsibilities of financial institutions to society''. In short to make banks socially responsible, and urge them not to take unnecessary risks.

Wouldn’t it be better if risk calculations in banks were based on the risk of going bankrupt instead of those imposed by government intervention and regulation? Unfortunately, Gordon Brown himself has played an active role in removing this part of the risk calculation by using taxpayer money to bail out the banks.

Gordon Brown has said that the UK would not act on its own and implement the Tobin tax without a global agreement. This is no brainer for most of them. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has turned down the Prime Minister's irresistible offer. No surprises there.

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