The Adam Smith Institute’s latest paper, co-published with C|T Local and written by Dr Michael Turner, Head of Research (Director) at C|T Group RSR and a Fellow of the ASI, and Matthew Lesh, Head of Research at the ASI, analyses a groundbreaking new poll about attitudes to housing reform:
The housing crisis, in which too few homes are being built where people want to live, is holding back Britain’s economy, pushing up the cost of living, increasing inequality, contributing to climate change and driving political dissatisfaction.
Planning reform is perceived to be a devil’s choice: allowing more building attracts substantial ‘local’ opposition while not building enough drives anger among those locked out from housing. This is a false dichotomy. It is possible to build more homes in a way that is popular and electorally beneficial.
This research paper presents perhaps the most expansive effort to date to identify a path forward on homebuilding.
1. Building more homes for a purpose is a big vote-winner
Almost half (46%) of voters say they would be more willing to vote for a party that builds more homes / affordable homes, while one-quarter (26%) would be more open to voting Conservative.
Conservatives and Labour would both electorally benefit from commitments to build more homes, but the Conservatives stand to benefit most by attracting younger renters who aspire to own a home but do not feel they can afford to buy.
A Conservative commitment to build 2 million more homes — while keeping in design with the local area, improving infrastructure and boosting local services — would lead to a 5 percentage point boost at the ballot box, the equivalent of 1.6 million switching their vote, and restoring the 2019 majority.
2. The property owning democracy is at risk
Homeownership has been in decline for decades. But homeownership remains extremely popular. Four-fifths of Brits either already own a home (57%) or would like to own one in the next five years (27%).
But three-quarters (75%) of those who would like to purchase a home in the next five years are unsure that they can afford the cost.
This has political implications. Almost half (45%) of homeowners vote Conservative while less than one-third (28%) support Labour. By contrast, a majority of those who would like to purchase a home in the next five years but cannot afford to (50%) say that they would vote for Labour today.
3. Housebuilding is most popular when locals benefit and agree
More people support housebuilding in their local area (38%) than oppose it (33%), while a sizable number neither agree nor disagree (25%). The strongest support comes from those who do not own a property, including those who live with their parents and extended families, young families, young couples and single parents, as well as Red Wall voters.
Two-thirds of Brits say that they would be more likely to support homebuilding if local residents had the power to agree when they were confident it would benefit their community (71%), if locals were confident that it would bring benefits to their family (67%), and if it meant that local services would see an improvement (68%).
The outcomes that drive support for homebuilding most are: if it leads to more investment in local services available in my community; if it leads to more people living and working in the community; if it allows more young people to move out of their parents’ homes; if it reduces the overall cost of housing in the area; if it is part of a plan to build all over the country; if it lowers the cost of rents in the area.
4. There are many popular ways identified in the research to win support for expanding homebuilding
There is strong support for the zoning system (60%) proposed in the Government’s Planning for the Future white paper; majority (52%) support for the ‘Infrastructure Levy’ replacing affordable housing requirements; and reducing red tape to help smaller and medium-sized builders (58%).
The most popular measures are building on brownfield (former industrial) sites (75%) and unused public land (63%) and allowing villages to build new homes nearby, if they choose to (59%).
There is backing for automatic permission for converting offices (58%) and almost a majority for converting high street shops (48%) or allowing council tenants to transfer their ‘Right to Buy’ discount to purchase another property in a different location (49%).
There are twice as many people in support of street votes (48%) compared to those who oppose (22%) with a large number who neither support nor oppose the proposal (31%).
There is clear majority support (58%) for granting permission for the building of mansard roof extensions, with very few (14%) opposed.
There is also majority support for setting national housing targets (52%) though support declines for housing targets set in resident’s local area (38%) or on their street (30%).
Brits are least supportive of initiatives to build on the ‘Green Belt’ (20%) even when they are within walking distance of train stations (29%). However, a clear majority of voters have an incorrect understanding of what the Green Belt actually is (52%) or they cannot say (14%).
5. It is possible to turn Nimbys to Yimbys
The population can be segmented into:
Yimbys (36%) or ‘Yes In My Back Yard’ - This group supports more housebuilding nationally and locally. They are younger, don’t tend to own homes and are open to switching their vote to a party that will build more homes.
Blockers (18%) - This group opposes more homebuilding both nationally and locally. They tend to be older homeowners who have a strongly negative disposition towards development and housebuilding, they are unlikely to support many, if any initiatives.
Nimbys (13%) or ‘Not in My Back Yard’ - This group supports more housebuilding nationally, but opposes more development and building homes locally. They are open to many initiatives designed to increase housebuilding but are concerned about maintaining local control and the quality of local amenity and services, and are sympathetic to the needs of families and for young people to leave the family home.
Opportunists (2%) - This group is very small and tends not to support a target for national housebuilding, but supports more homes being built in their local area.
Passives (31%) - This group does not have a strong opinion on homebuilding and tend not to be as engaged in politics and elections.
Yimbys support housebuilding of almost any nature. Nimbys can be persuaded to support housebuilding if they feel in control and there are local benefits. Blockers are firm in their skepticism about more development — but are less then one-in-five. Passives are less engaged and tend to be indifferent.