The potential for a serious rival to the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency is stronger now than at any time since the Bretton Woods agreement first gave the dollar its preeminent role in global finance. Talks are currently underway between the BRICS countries about creating a new currency that will be backed by gold.
While exact details about this proposed new currency are unknown, arguably the simplest and most likely form that it could take is that of a gold-backed cryptocurrency. Such an innovation promises the benefits of intrinsic value, stability, and international trust.
However, despite its allure, numerous challenges stand in the way of this prospect becoming a reality. In this article, I will explore the potential of a gold-backed cryptocurrency as a replacement for the US dollar and examine the various obstacles that make its widespread adoption unlikely – at least for the time being.
The global advantages of a gold-backed cryptocurrency
The concept of a gold-backed cryptocurrency revolves around combining the historical allure and stability of gold with the efficiency and accessibility of blockchain technology. Unlike traditional fiat currencies, which are not backed by any physical assets, a gold-backed cryptocurrency would be intrinsically linked to a reserve of physical gold held in secure vaults.
Blockchain technology, the backbone of cryptocurrencies, offers transparency and accountability. Each transaction recorded on the blockchain is immutable, ensuring trust and reducing the risk of fraudulent activities. Each digital coin issued would represent a specified amount of gold, making it a uniquely stable store of value that offers protection against the future inflation/debasement of fiat currencies (to say nothing of the geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the dollar and its recent weaponisation).
This stability would also come in stark contrast to the extreme volatility of other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, thereby attracting investors who seek a reliable and secure store of wealth. Moreover, as gold has historically retained its value during economic crises, a gold-backed cryptocurrency would provide a hedge against market fluctuations and safeguard against fiat currency devaluation – something that a growing number of economists are increasingly wary of.
A universally accepted gold-backed cryptocurrency could also simplify international trade and financial transactions. Its borderless nature would facilitate cross-border payments and promote financial inclusion, benefiting businesses and individuals worldwide.
Finally, the current dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency gives the United States significant influence over the global financial system. Transitioning to a gold-backed cryptocurrency would reduce reliance on the US dollar, potentially leading to a more diversified and balanced international monetary system.
The challenges & why it probably won't happen anytime soon
While the vision of a gold-backed cryptocurrency is enticing to many people, numerous challenges make its widespread adoption improbable in the near term. These obstacles encompass technical, political, economic, and regulatory aspects.
Technical Complexity
Implementing a global gold-backed cryptocurrency would require advanced technical expertise in blockchain, cryptography, and cybersecurity. The process of securely storing and managing the gold reserves, as well as ensuring the efficient functioning of the cryptocurrency's network, presents significant technical challenges.
The current global financial system, anchored by the US Dollar, is deeply entrenched. Established financial institutions, including central banks and commercial banks, may resist the adoption of a new reserve currency that disrupts their existing roles and interests.
Political and Economic Considerations
The replacement of the dollar is a matter of immense geopolitical significance. It would require the consensus and cooperation of nations with varying interests, ideologies, and levels of influence on the world stage.
While there is growing international distrust in the US Dollar, there remains a great deal of distrust in any of the alternatives to it. While gold holds historical significance as a store of value, the idea of a gold-backed cryptocurrency might be unfamiliar to investors. Building trust and educating the global population on its benefits would require time.
The transition from the dollar to a gold-backed cryptocurrency would have economic implications. Countries holding significant US dollar reserves may face disruptions, potentially causing economic instability during the adjustment period.
Most importantly, in a Keynesian run global monetary system anchored to the dollar, the US enjoys enormous power via its ability to print-money. The loss of such exorbitant privilege would massively reduce the influence of US foreign policy, and for this reason alone the current monetary system will likely be vigorously defended.
Regulatory Challenges
A global gold-backed cryptocurrency would necessitate a robust regulatory framework. However, reaching a consensus on international regulations and ensuring compliance across jurisdictions would be a complex and time-consuming process.
Determining how to allocate gold reserves among participating countries would be a delicate negotiation. Disparities in gold reserves could lead to disagreements and hinder progress.
Final Thoughts
The vision of a gold-backed cryptocurrency replacing the US dollar as the global reserve currency holds considerable potential. It promises intrinsic value, stability, and reduced dependence on the US dollar. However, several formidable challenges stand in the way of this transformative vision becoming a reality.
The technical complexities, resistance from established financial institutions, political considerations, economic disruptions, regulatory hurdles, lack of trust and familiarity, and the challenge of gold reserves allocation are all significant barriers.
While it is unlikely that a gold-backed cryptocurrency will replace the US Dollar at the current time, things might look very different in the not-too-distant future. The Keynesian experiment does indeed appear to be failing, and when its end finally arrives it will likely come with the need for a new global monetary system.
Without a convincing national currency to anchor other currencies to, gold has always been the preferred medium of exchange, and in the modern world blockchain technology offers us the ability to trade it in tiny denominations. These advantages might quickly become irresistible once fiat has failed.
(photo credit: Quantum Trading)