The Pin Factory Blog

That American recession/depression. You know, it looks like the falling dollar is boosting exports, curbing imports and taking up the slack. Just like, umm, economic theory would predict.

The most important question in climate change science is, what is climate sensitivity? As several note.

Yes, there really are ten famous Belgians (for a given value of "fame"). 

There's a move to bring plea bargaining to the English judicial system. Perhaps not the wisest of ideas.  

Waiters Unite! There is a decent tip on offer if you should happen to keep the wine glass of one or two favoured customers. 

Enoch Powell on a pogo-stick? 

And finally, the newspaper punctuation correction to beat all newspaper punctuation corrections and it's a tough job but someone's got to do it.

Gordon Brown, our increasingly beleaguered prime minister, seems to have a rebellion on his hands over the abolition of the 10 percent starting rate of income tax.

When he announced the measure in his final budget as chancellor hardly anyone on the Labour benches noticed, so bowled over were they by the reduction in the basic rate from 22 to 20 percent. The Tories were quick to say that this tax cut was a tax con, but it looked like Brown had managed to get away with it. But with the change about to come into effect and the mood on the Labour benches 'sulphurous' (to quote Kate Hooey, the former minister), it doesn’t look like that anymore. 

It was always a curious move for a Labour chancellor – who had himself introduced the 10 percent starting rate – to make. Cutting the basic rate of tax – good idea. Simplifying the tax code – good idea. But financing the changes by increasing taxes on the poor (anybody earning under £18,000 who doesn’t have dependent children is set to be worse off) really doesn't make a lot of sense. As a leader in the FT put it:

The prime minister stole from Peter to pay Paul. Peter has woken up to the fact.

The ASI's long-standing campaign for income tax simplification would have involved abolishing the starting rate of tax too, but we would balance things out by raising the personal allowance quite substantially – to at least £12,000 – so that someone earning the minimum wage would be taken out of the tax net altogether. Come to think of it, I'm not sure why politicians aren't keener to take that suggestion up. Surely it's the perfect tax reform? It leaves everyone better off, but the lower your income, the greater the benefit.

Anyway, things are really starting to look grim for the prime minister, as Rachel Sylvester showed in yesterday's Telegraph, with infighting, indiscipline and a chronic lack of direction taking hold. The point-of-no-return may not have been reached yet, but it can't be too far off.

86. "We should extradite any citizen accused of crimes by overseas prosecutors."

The readiness of British governments to act at the behest of overseas prosecutors has been a disturbing development. It has included extradition to face trial abroad for actions done in the UK which are not criminal here. Countries have very different approaches to law and legal rights. US prosecutors, some seeking popularity to boost political careers, have a habit of using criminal law in what would be civil actions in Britain, especially in relation to business actions. Their habit of parading those accused in chains in order to influence future jurors is not one that sits well with the presumption of innocence. Their regular use of plea-bargains to allow some of those accused to buy immunity by testifying against others is not conducive to honest testimony.

Even more disturbing is the British government's decision to allow UK citizens to be extradited to other EU countries, possibly ones they have never even visited, to face trial for actions which are not illegal in this country. Under this procedure, a person appearing on a local radio station might be extradited to Malta to face trial there because some prosecutor there regarded what was said as a breach of some obscure Maltese law.

The pretence is that the EU is now a unit with a common standard of law. This is simply not true. Each member state has had its own approach to law, and many have widely different practices and different degrees of respect for people's rights. The trial of UK plane spotters in Greece for espionage illustrated some of these radical differences. UK citizens should not be at the mercy of capricious foreign prosecutors.

Many fought for their rights under law in the UK, and some died. It is entirely wrong that these rights should now be so carelessly given away in the name of cementing international relationships.

More selections of those old Tory posters mentioned above (or, erm, below, given the reverse order of blogs....). Here and here. There's some thought that the immediacy, the force, of the messages has declined over the years.

Here's the numbers on one country that has successfully dealt with climate change, emissions and keeping the lights on. Alternatively, here's what happens when you go nuclear.  

More on Ms. Abbess, that story that Tim W noted above (umm, below?).

One of the seriously important questions. As long as we're not insisting that all should be exactly equal, well then, how much inequality is too much? 

The essential difference between libertarians and the rest: libertarians do not invest government with higher moral status. 

The figures are in: private schooling really is cheaper than government provided. 

And finally, if you think tax rates are too low, you can always voluntarily pay more. (As a public service to Guardianistas, here in the UK make your cheques payable to "The Accountant" and post them to 2 Horse Guards Road, London).

I must say, I think this is an absolutely marvellous advance. We pay for the BBC, after all, so we really shouldn't have any of that elitist nonsense about a factual reality or anything. No, news should be presented to show the world as "you" believe it to be, not as some impartial reporter of the facts would have it.

That, at least, was the view of one Jo Abbess, a climate activist (and a remarkably confused one at that, a little googling reveals that she worries about both global warming and Peak Oil: mutually exclusive concerns one might think. Bless.) who, as this correspondence shows, did indeed manage to have a BBC news report changed to reflect her views. We mustn't actually talk of static temperatures, or even worse, of 1998 being the hottest so far (and thus since then we've had cooling) because that might make people think that the world has, umm, not been warming and might even have been cooling since 1998. Can't let the proles know the truth now, can we?

As Lubos points out, when the crazed loons start threatening mass email campaigns, it's often easier just to give in, as this BBC journo did. Which I think is really rather fabulous, it's going to be so much fun. No, really: now we know that for the BBC Einstein was right. Everything is indeed relative, so it is simply weight of numbers, who complains the loudest, which will decide how the news is reported, how facts are portrayed.

A small bank of a few hundred committed emailers could bring great truth and clarity to the news, if you think about it the right way. Perhaps the insistence that all references to the Chancellor be replaced with the "Banned Badger" might not work, but those which insist that the Lisbon Treaty is the EU Constitution would pass muster: for of course it is. Insisting upon the insertion of the word "ruinous" in front of all mentions of current taxation levels similarly seems fair. All discussions of the education system would benefit from a "some say that a pure voucher system would solve all current problems" and certain readers will know where "monocular Scot" should be inserted.

Given that we already know the BBC gives in to the threat of a few polite emails, well, why not make hay?

Or might we find that the BBC's willingness to accomodate opinions only goes one way, left, green and statist?

Sweden is often depicted as a Social Democratic paradise. However, her welfare state has achieved less and cost more than most believed. The point is that wealth distribution and flat income have not significantly changed after Sweden expanded her welfare programmes during the 1950s and 1960s, when workers enjoyed lower taxes and worked more hours. Yet what has changed dramatically is the effect of social engineering on immigration, basically creating welfare dependency and preventing integration.

Integration worked well in the first decades after the war with immigrant employment rates 20 percent above the Swedish average. By contrast it is now 30 percent below that average with only half of non-EU immigrants holding jobs. The combination of a highly regulated labour market and lavish welfare payments is keeping immigrants out of jobs. The comparison with the US with much less welfare arrangements is striking:

Given the high barriers to entry, many immigrants in Europe no longer start accumulating essential language and labour market skills. This is in stark contrast with the situation across the Atlantic. For example, in 2000, Iranians in the U.S. had a family income that was 42 percent above the U.S. average. The income of Iranian immigrants in Sweden, however, was 39 percent below the country’s average.

Even more worrying is the nexus between unemployment and successful integration of immigrants. Countries such as Australia and the U.S. that reward hard work and entrepreneurship are doing much better with integration than welfare obsessed Europe. Welfare dependency has a detrimental effect on immigrant communities, because immigrants tend to regard their lower standing as a result of discrimination and racism thus fuelling social tensions. This is not the Liberation from want that was intended ‘Social Europe’ was intended to achieve.

85. "Curbs on budget airlines are needed to protect the environment."

Budget air flights emit a tiny fraction of the CO2 and other 'greenhouse gases' that are put out from all sources.  They are insignificant compared to the emissions of agriculture, road transport and power generation.  The problem is that these make very difficult targets for NGOs to pick upon because we cannot do without those big three, whereas they feel free to call budget air flights an unnecessary luxury.

NGO spokespersons usually gloss over the minor contribution of budget airlines to total pollution by describing the emissions from air transport as the "fastest growing" source.  If this is true it is only because they start from such a low base.  Even at the highest estimates for the growth of air traffic by the mid-century, analysts calculate their contribution might rise from 1.5 percent of the total to about 3 percent.

In fact budget airlines generally emit less per passenger than the established airlines.  This is because they typically fly with a higher load capacity, flying more people for the same fuel.  Even without the punitive taxes demanded by eco-lobbyists, airline passengers already pay very high taxes which in many cases cost more than the ticket itself does.

Budget airlines have made air travel no longer an exotic prerogative of the rich, but have made it accessible to ordinary people, with all of the opportunities this presents.  Critics deride 'holidays in the sun,' but neglect to point out the opportunities people now have to visit and explore foreign cities and to experience for a time the cultures of other nations.  The more that people know about other peoples and places, the more rich their own life is likely to be.

The responsible way forward is not to make air travel once again something only the rich can afford, but to develop the technologies that can make it cleaner and more efficient.