Risky business

Those who think that responsibility for the financial crisis lies mainly at the door of governments and central banks might like to consider the following.  The policy of easy money and cheap credit, designed at the behest of politicians to smooth the down side of the business cycle, had one unexpected result.  by depressing interest rates it was made difficult for fund managers to gain decent returns on relatively low-risk investments such as bonds.

In search of decent returns in this low interest rate climate, they were forced to climb the risk ladder, investing in things that carried higher risk than they would otherwise have taken.  So while it is true that some investment groups were undertaking riskier investments, it was not because they had suddenly become greedy and reckless, but because government policies had denied them adequate returns on the safer things they would normally have gone in for.

What does the BBC need?

Over at his personal website, Madsen discusses why people like the BBC, and says that it has radically departed from the impartiality that once made many people value it:

In fact traditional support for the BBC is more likely to have arisen from its role as an unbiased reporter of events, rather than as a campaigning organization doing investigative work.  People valued the BBC’s level take on national and world events, and trusted it to be accurate.

That reputation was undermined not by the incompetence of its investigative teams, but by the way it allowed what some call the left-wing mindset of its culture to bias its reporting.  Its enthusiastic endorsement of all things pro-EU, its hostility to business and enterprise, its refusal to use the word ‘terrorist’ to describe those who murder civilians in causes it approves of, and its selection of news to highlight on the basis of a pro-state intervention agenda, have systematically alienated those who used to trust it and support it as the embodiment of all things British.

Read the whole thing.

Denmark admits its fat tax failure

The world’s first fat tax will soon also be the first to be abolished. Denmark has taxed saturated fats since October 2011, and the experiment has been a failure. Danes are worried that the tax has increased food bills (which was the point of the tax) and that it could be threatening the food industry. One poll found that 70% of Danes felt the tax was ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’ and 80% said it had not changed what they ate.

At the same time, fat prohibitionists tell us that what Denmark really needed was a much higher tax to have the desired effect. Multiple studies find that a tax as high as 10% (much higher than the Danish tax) would reduce population bodyweight by less than 1%. Most of us tend not to change what we eat based on a change in price — foods like butter and bacon are relatively price inelastic. To get people to change their behaviour you have to set punitively high rates.

It is a good idea to question why the health-obsessives are going after saturated fats to begin with. Many believe that a good diet includes saturated fats, as they have been linked to increased testosterone, boost the effects of omega-3 fatty acids, and improved immune system function.

Simple economics tell us that when you tax something, like saturated fats, enough to cause a change in behaviour then their consumption will fall in favour of a substitute. In most cases, that substitute will be carbohydrates. The nutritional science is far from settled on whether carbohydrates are worse for us than other macronutrients (protein and fat). Politicians are unlikely to know better. The tax on fat could be making the 20% of Danes that changed their diets less healthy. That the impact of the tax is largely unknown is a good enough reason not to mess with the food on our plates.

Of course, there is a more fundamental liberal point. Why should we be coerced to be healthy? If someone decides that they prefer Danish bacon once a week to the last (probably quite uncomfortable) five years of their life, that certainly isn’t a ‘wrong’ choice. It is hard to coerce ‘healthy’ behaviour, and government should not try to. Sadly, politicians know that they can appear to attack the scapegoat of the unhealthy citizen, while taking more money from our pockets.

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Roast Salmond

My colleague, Dr Eamonn Butler, was quite right to castigate Alex Salmond, Scottish First Minister, for his disparaging remarks about Adam Smith and the Institute that proudly bears his name.  Every few years some left-winger, usually a politician, tries the claim that Smith was really a sort of proto-socialist.  It is never convincing because he was nothing like that.

At the ASI we always stress Smith's "Theory of Moral Sentiments" as a companion and precursor to his "Wealth of Nations."  The left seem to think we treat Smith as someone who promoted selfishness, whereas the opposite is the truth.  He said that our most salient characteristic is our ability to empathize  (he said feel sympathy) with others.

The act of wealth creation, which requires trade, puts our co-operation with our fellow men and women right at the start of market economics.  They trade so that each gains greater value than they had.  Without that co-operation there would be no exchange and no wealth-creation.

Eamonn's very apt put-down of Alex Salmond was this:

“I shall be pleased to send him copies of Adam Smith – A Primer, my dummie’s guide to all of Adam Smith’s work. It includes not just the Theory of Moral Sentiments but his lectures on jurisprudence and on literature, which Alex may not be familiar with.”

Inequality in the UK just ain't what people say it is

I've said this before and no doubt I'll say it again. But inequality in the UK just isn't quite what people generally say it is. We're in an unusual situation: we've in London one of the great commercial cities on the planet. The rest of the UK is pretty standard high income European stylee. A goodly part of the recorded inequality in the UK is between these two economies. We can see this in this report on the latest ONS figures:

The least inequality was in Wales, where the highest earners had wages seven times higher than the lowest. The top 10 per cent of earners in Britain earned at least £26.75 an hour last year. Of these, 36 per cent worked in London, indicating that more than a third of the highest-paid jobs were in the capital.

London is, of course, significantly less than 36% of the total population (more  like 12% or so). Which does indeed lead us to two important points about nationwide inequality.

The first is that we all know that London is vastly more expensive to live in than other areas of the country. So measuring inequality by inequality of incomes is going to hugely overstate the consumption inequality we have. Consumption inequality being the only one we should even theoretically worry about given that it's what people get to do with their lives which could conceivably important, not the numbers on their paycheque.

The second is that a good piece of even the income inequality being recorded across the nationwide figures isn't, in fact, a nationwide difference between the oppressing capitalists and the ground down workers. It's that we have, in one city, a part of the great global high end economy. In a manner that no other European country really does. Given that there is indeed a difference in wages between that high end global economy and the usual standard European economy we therefore have higher recorded inequality.

And if I'm honest I really can't see a problem with this. That we've got one part of our economy that really is world class, world beating, seems rather cheering actually, not a cause for woe and despondency.

There seems to be something to this trade idea

I can't say that I've ever really understood this idea that we must all eat only the things that have been grown in our own region. "Region" of course is a variable thing. It seems to depend on how deep the green of the fool recommending it is. Something from "the nation" to "your back yard" is the spectrum. But as I say, I've never really understood the point.

For we know what happens when food supplies are indeed restricted to just the region one is actually in. We've been there before, back before we had decent roads. And what used to happen is that when the local crops failed then everyone died of starvation: even if 30 miles away there was a bumper crop. Quite why anyone wants to recreate the bad parts of the Middle Ages I'm really not quite sure.

As a modern example, think what would be happening in the near future given the near failure* of the American corn crop this year. We would currently be awaiting the news that Mid-Westerners were keeling over from the shortage of corn dogs no doubt. Then have a look at this other piece of news from this past week:

Chinese farmers are reaping a third record corn harvest even after a typhoon wiped out some of the crop, easing demand for imports at a time when the U.S. drought is driving sales from the biggest exporter to a four-decade low. The harvest rose 3.6 percent to 199.74 million metric tons, according to a survey of farmers in China’s seven biggest producing provinces by Geneva-based SGS SA (SGSN) for Bloomberg. The country’s stockpiles last month were at a nine-year high, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects a 64 percent drop in imports. The agency will raise its estimate for U.S. reserves by 2.4 percent when it reports Nov. 9, the average of 29 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.

As you can see, no one is predicting that China is going to start exporting corn to the US. My point is, rather, that bad weather doesn't affect every part of the world at the same time. Thus harvests that are bad in one place can be offset by good ones in others.

Or if we are to put it in the terms usually reserved for this argument, the term "food security". We can only have a secure food supply if we grow all our own food. Which is nonsense of course, for our food growing is at the mercy of our weather. True food security comes from having a multitude of suppliers in many different parts of the word so that we can play that game of averages with that weather.

You know, this trade idea. The one that our greens seems to be so strongly against?

 

*Yes, I know, it wasn't anything like a failure but you wouldn't know that from the news stories.

The wrong agenda

There is a damaging focus on taxation instead of growth.  Media and politicians, egged on by ideological enemies of business and markets, are talking about ways of making corporations and 'rich' individuals pay more in taxation.  Tax avoidance and use of the legitimate means people use to reduce their tax liability are being denounced as wicked, and ways are being sought to curb this activity.

The emphasis is totally wrong.  Those who think the economy would be in better shape if more of its resources went to government are simply wrong.  Government does not use those resources as wisely as private citizens do.  It neither spends nor invests as effectively.  It is prone to vast wastage and to the direction of expenditure to serve the ends of politicians rather than those of private citizens.

The agenda is misguided.  Instead of concentrating on ways that would give government more of our resources, it should be focused on ways to allow us to generate more resources.  Investment and job-creation should be made more attractive by a policy of lower taxation and lighter regulation.  If it is easier and more rewarding to engage in economic activity, people will do more of it.  The aim should be to have fewer resources directed to government, and more of them to growth.

America’s Chief Magistrate and the Spirit of ’76

The year 1776 was a revolutionary milestone for individual liberty, with the publication of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations setting forth the path of economic freedom and a Declaration proclaimed by thirteen American colonies ringing the tocsin for political independence.

But a solemn spectre of ’76 hung over the United States this November as Americans voted for representatives and senators in Congress and a Chief Magistrate to occupy the White House — for the promise of economic and political liberty has turned dark.

The spirit of ’76 was animated by the desire for personal freedom, both in our relations with others and in our transactions with them.  Adam Smith wrote against the mercantilist system which thwarted innovation and entrepreneurship, while the Declaration of Independence affirmed that ‘all men are created equal’ and ‘endowed ... with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness’; that we establish governments to protect these rights, said governments ‘deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed’.

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Broken windows: still not good for the economy

The weather might not be predictable, but one thing is almost certain; when natural disasters strike, you can be sure that someone will claim this is a good thing. Sure enough, journalists have made the case here, here and here. It is claimed that Sandy will provide a stimulus for the US construction sector as damage estimates approach $50 billion. It is argued that in turn this growth in the construction sector will move through into other areas of the economy, this new activity driving growth.

Those who make this case could do worse than to read Frédéric Bastiat’s “What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen”. Rather than simply generating new economic activity, destruction is not costless. The cost of rebuilding devastated areas will be a cost at the cost of other alternatives. People who might have spent money on improving their homes may now have to rebuild them entirely. They have not gained wealth; they have lost the improvements to their homes that they would have otherwise enjoyed.

If it were true that destroying homes was good for growth, we should be smashing buildings as they spring up. By this logic we would be richer as a result. These arguments are seen not just in the case of natural disasters, but also when war occurs. World War II famously saw huge production numbers as nations clawed for scarce resources to build bullets and tanks. This was not production that improved the quality of people’s lives. Railings from parks and schoolyards were melted down to build bombs.

Similarly, while many breakthroughs were made in the form of new inventions during wartime, this came at the cost of other alternatives. It is impossible to compare with what might have been, but that does not mean that it is not important. Had World War II not happened then we would have been free to pursue research and development directed at improving the quality of lives, not at winning wars.

This story betrays an alarming obsession with GDP. GDP does not usefully describe the health of an economy. What is important is that people have more of the things that they want and natural disasters destroy this prosperity. Bastiat’s classic essay dispelled this myth in 1848, yet it is clearly still rampant.

There is a good news story here, but it's not one of false stimulus. It is one of the continual process of development and production. The damage in the US has been much lower than in less developed countries also struck by Sandy. Development has helped to save lives. As we lift more people out of poverty, we can expect natural disasters to be less lethal.

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America’s Chief Magistrate and the Spirit of ’76

The year 1776 was a revolutionary milestone for individual liberty, with the publication of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations setting forth the path of economic freedom and a Declaration proclaimed by thirteen American colonies ringing the tocsin for political independence.

But a solemn spectre of ’76 hung over the United States this November as Americans voted for representatives and senators in Congress and a Chief Magistrate to occupy the White House — for the promise of economic and political liberty has turned dark.

Individual liberty

The spirit of ’76 was animated by the desire for personal freedom, both in our relations with others and in our transactions with them.  Adam Smith wrote against the mercantilist system which thwarted innovation and entrepreneurship, while the Declaration of Independence affirmed that ‘all men are created equal’ and ‘endowed ... with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness’; that we establish governments to protect these rights, said governments ‘deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed’.

In an early lecture anticipating The Wealth of Nations, Smith was recorded to have said

Little else is requisite to carry a State to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism, but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice; all the rest being brought about by the natural course of things.  All governments which thwart this natural course, which force things into another channel, or which endeavour to arrest the progress of society at a particular point, are unnatural, and to support themselves are obliged to be oppressive and tyrannical.

Smith’s ‘unnatural course’ is now commonplace.  It is impossible to pick up a newspaper, switch on the television, or surf the internet without being inundated with propaganda about how government can improve our lives through intervention, paid for through the imposition of ‘oppressive and tyrannical’ taxation.  ‘Since time immemorial two political systems have confronted one another and both have good arguments to support them,’ wrote the nineteenth-century economist, Frédéric Bastiat.  ‘According to one, the state has to do a great deal, but it also has to take a great deal.  According to the other, its twin action should be little felt.  A choice has to be made between these two systems.’

Governments now do ‘a great deal’ never before imagined, and while the heights of politicisation may be unheard of, the phenomenon isn’t.  In ancient Greece, Aristotle taught that ‘it would be absurd for someone to think that political science or practical wisdom is the best science, unless human beings are the best things in the cosmos (Nicomachean Ethics, 1141a)’ — he thought not; these sentiments were echoed in mediaeval times by Thomas Aquinas:  ‘Man is not ordained to the body politic, according to all that he is and has; and so it does not follow that every action of his acquires merit or demerit in relation to the body politic (Summa Theologica, I-II, 21.4, ad 3).’

But in civil society to-day, most relations are graded on whether or not they contribute to ‘social democracy’, with bitter recriminations for anyone refusing to justify himself by seeking sanction from the majority.  ‘What else would you expect?’ retorts Trevor Burrus, an associate at the Cato Institute.

Over the past 50 years, politics has crept into nearly every area of our lives, affecting our most personal and consequential decisions.  Our political parties no longer fight over simple regulations of interstate commerce and tariffs, we fight, on a national level, over the nature of American health care and how we will educate our children.  How could these fights not be schismatic, vicious, and underhanded?

Since politics has invaded every corner of our lives, everything has become political, and fair game for a ‘great deal’ of unwelcome intrusion.

Constitutionally limited government

Of Bastiat’s two systems, America’s founders had envisioned a union of limited government, whose actions ‘should be little felt’; witness James Madison’s promise in Federalist No. 45, that ‘the powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined.  Those which are to remain in the State governments are numerous and indefinite.’  Yet the constitutional framework of the Founders — that ‘the State governments may be regarded as constituent and essential parts of the federal government; whilst the latter is nowise essential to the operation or organization of the former’ — has been set upon its head.  Washington intrudes upon state jurisdiction as a matter of fact, usurping powers it has no authority to assume.  Nowhere is this reversal more evident that in the office of the president.  As Gene Healy writes in The Cult of the Presidency,

Neither Left nor Right sees the president as the Framers saw him:  a constitutionally constrained chief executive with an important, but limited job:  to defend the country when attacked, check Congress when it violates the Constitution, enforce the law—and little else....

Congress, not the executive branch, was to be the prime mover in setting national policy ... the chief magistrate’s role was mainly defensive.  He could interpose himself between Congress and the people when Congress acted beyond its authority, but he was neither Tribune of the People nor Chief Legislator.  His true role at home was at once more humble and more important:  Constitutional Guardian.  Modest but firm, dignified but not regal:  this was the president as the Framers envisioned him.

Any existential threat to America is first posed by government itself — continuing deficits (now annually in the trillion-dollar zone); accumulating debt (with harrowing GDP ratios); and burgeoning entitlement burdens for various welfare and social security programmes.  The Republican presidential ticket — arguably the more fiscally prudent of the two major parties — abandoned fiscal guidelines based on constitutional, limited government principles and adopted a utilitarian standard for cutting government waste:  ‘As president, Mitt Romney will ask a simple question about every federal program:  is it so important, so critical, that it is worth borrowing money from China to pay for it?’  (Mainstream GOP attitudes toward increased military spending and ‘loose’ monetary policy are anathema to libertarian conservatives, for instance, who warn that America’s sovereign debt crisis will lead to imminent financial collapse.)

Although Smith would question — as did the Framers — faith in the chief magistrate’s acumen to arbitrate any economic scheme (for good or ill) for the American people.  ‘The sovereign is completely discharged from a duty, in the attempting to perform which he must always be exposed to innumerable delusions, and for the proper performance of which no human wisdom or knowledge could ever be sufficient,’ he proclaimed; ‘the duty of superintending the industry of private people, and of directing it towards the employments most suitable to the interest of the society (IV.ix.51).’  But Smith knew of the proclivities of political leaders.

It is the highest impertinence and presumption, therefore, in kings and ministers, to pretend to watch over the œconomy of private people, and to restrain their expence either by sumptuary laws, or by prohibiting the importation of foreign luxuries.  They are themselves always, and without any exception, the greatest spendthrifts in the society.  Let them look well after their own expence, and they may safely trust private people with theirs.  If their own extravagance does not ruin the state, that of their subjects never will (II.iii.36).

Unfortunately, impertinence and presumption are most often the coin of the realm for politicians.  Nor is this despondent critique fuelled by partisan affiliations.  True, the cause of limited, constitutional government with individual liberty and responsibility has more ostensible supporters in one of the two major political parties than the other.  This applies especially to those Tea Party members of the GOP who espouse the enumerated powers Madison described above and an ever-more constrained role for America’s contemporary chief magistracy.  Sadly, in reality, fidelity to the constitution is contingent upon which party enjoys power.  Healy calls this equivocation ‘Situational Constitutionalism’:

...the Right had largely abandoned its distaste for presidential activism and had begun to look upon executive power as a key weapon in the battle against creeping liberalism.  Sadly, that pattern is all too common in political battles over the scope of presidential power.  The tendency to support enhanced executive power when one’s friends hold the executive branch....

‘Government Failure’

In America of the twenty-first century, many would aver that the very opposite of Smith’s triad of ‘peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration’ dominates the agenda.  Within the school of Public Choice Theory, this is known as ‘government failure’.

The faults of the market are well-known; innovation causes old industries to wither away, and unemployment and financial dislocations occur as the marketplace adapts to new economic realities.  To address this supposed ‘market failure’, governments step into the breach, but they are no more omniscient than chief magistrates — and what results instead is ‘government failure’.  The State’s misadventures in mercantilist policy, for instance, animated Smith’s Wealth of Nations.

The stateman, who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it (IV.ii.10).

The IEA’s Arthur Seldon summed up the ‘dilemma of democracy’ brilliantly:  ‘Government remedies are begun before the market’s imperfections have been removed by growing knowledge of its continuing flow of new, competing alternatives,’ he observed.  ‘They are applied too widely to where the market has not yet emerged, but could have been foreseen, to where it is expanding.  And they are maintained long after they have become superfluous and could be replaced by the new supplies and demands.’

Seldon’s remedy was equally apt — ‘The option is no longer for politicians to tell the people what they will do in government but to confess what they cannot do.  The question for the future is increasingly not “What should government do now?” but increasingly “What can government do?”’

More troubling, however, are politicians’ vested interests in government intervention.  Public Choice observes that the desire to get elected means that public officials are not always so pure in their pursuit of the common good, and will promise state-sponsored incentives to ensure their victory at the ballot box.  Frédéric Bastiat opined in The Law that

...when plunder is organized by law for the benefit of the classes that make it, all the classes that have been plundered attempt, by either peaceful or revolutionary means, to have a say in the making of laws.  Depending on the level of enlightenment which they have attained, these classes may set themselves two very different aims when they pursue the acquisition of their political rights; they may either wish to stop legal plunder or they may aspire to take part in it.

Increasingly, Bastiat’s latter scenario has come to pass.

And the struggle continues

But all is not lost.  ‘The uniform, constant, and uninterrupted effort of every man to better his condition, the principle from which publick and national, as well as private opulence is originally derived,’ wrote Smith optimistically, ‘is frequently powerful enough to maintain the natural progress of things toward improvement, in spite both of the extravagance of government, and of the greatest errors of administration (II.iii.31).’  And in The State, Bastiat believed that a system of justice could prevail.

As for us, we consider that the state is not, nor should it be, anything other than a common force, instituted not to be an instrument of mutual  oppression and plunder between all of its citizens, but on the contrary to guarantee to each person his own property and ensure the reign of justice and security.

(Canadians of a certain age will recall Liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau’s reflections when he lost majority government in 1972, when he quoted from the popular prose poem, Desiderata:  ‘no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.’)

Ultimately, if Americans are to restore constitutionally limited government instituted to guarantee their personal liberty, then they must revive the Spirit of ’76.  One avenue lies with the states, by adhering jealously to constitutional prerogatives and the power to ‘nullify’ or ‘interpose’ between their citizens and federal over-reach; another with citizens themselves who must remember the principles of the Declaration, by withholding their consent to the leviathan within their midst.  ‘A healthier political culture would follow the Framers not just in their skepticism toward power, but in their sense that the federal government was one of limited responsibilities and limited powers’, notes Gene Healy in a speech on the contemporary chief magistracy.  ‘Until we restore that sense of limits, I’m afraid that we’re going to get more of the same, no matter who becomes president.’ God bless America.