This could be the script for an episode of Tomorrow’s World:
Automated floating factories that manufacture green versions of petrol or diesel could soon be in operation thanks to pioneering work at the University of Cambridge. The revolutionary system would produce a net-zero fuel that would burn without creating fossil-derived emissions of carbon dioxide, say researchers.
The Cambridge project is based on a floating artificial leaf which has been developed at the university and which can turn sunlight, water and carbon dioxide into synthetic fuel. The group believe these thin, flexible devices could one day be exploited on a industrial scale.
As with everything that did appear on the late lamented Tomorrow’s World we’ll all look back in two decades and wonder what the heck happened to that idea?
This particular and specific version of the general idea we’re not sure about that is. But this part we’re near certain is right:
Floated on water, the artificial leaf produces hydrogen and carbon monoxide. “Crucially, we use sunlight to power these transformations,” said Reisner. “And the chemicals that we make this way have already been used to manufacture feedstocks, though it is fuel – like diesel or petrol – that we really want to target. One goal would be to make green sustainable kerosene for the aviation market.”
Aviation is a grand human boon. People like flying. So, if we are to beat climate change we need to do one of four things. Fly less or not at all (and so be measurably poorer ), find some different way of powering airplanes, say the heck with it and fly but have more climate change or, perhaps, find a different way of fuelling jet ‘planes. The actual answer will, we think, involve some part of all of these.
But as we’ve said before we think that new way to make jet fuel is the one that is going to be utility maximising.
As it happens we think that aviation is going to get solved an entirely different way. The renewables to green hydrogen to synthfuel route has promise. The current infrastructure and activities using it would thereby be carbon neutral. Which we think would be a double victory. Solving the climate change impact while preserving maximal human utility has its attractions. But right royally annoying all those who would impose sumptuary laws is even better.
As we say, we’re not sure about this very specific method. Nor are we about Porsche and their turning Roaring Forties wind into petrol down in Tierra del Fuego. The chemistry here is not difficult, if we’ve got either hydrogen or this syngas then it’s well known in fact. Therefore that’s what we expect will happen.
Which does lead to what the policy response should be - nothing. Leave the scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs to battle it out in the market. We here in the UK already tax aviation appropriately for climate effects - APD is a carbon tax. So, in terms of policy we’re done, we’ve set the system up and the correct answer will be what markets produce through market processes.
That is, to policy makers - don’t do anything, just stand there.