Global extreme poverty (under $2.15/day) has fallen from around 40% of the world's population in 1990 to under 10% today. Global life expectancy has risen from roughly 47 years in 1950 to over 73 years now. Child mortality has fallen by more than half since 1990. And famine deaths have collapsed compared to any prior period in recorded history
Covering health, smallpox has been eradicated, polio nearly eliminated andmalaria deaths are down sharply since 2000. Global vaccination coverage is far higher than a generation ago. HIV/AIDS has been transformed from a near-certain death sentence to a manageable chronic condition with modern treatment. And maternal mortality has more than halved globally since 1990.
Education and literacy have made great strides. The global literacy rate has risen from around 55% in 1950 to over 85% today. The gender gap in primary and secondary education has closed in most of the world, and access to higher education has expanded enormously, including in the developing world.
Violence and conflict have declined (yes, really). Battle deaths per capita from interstate war are far lower than in any prior century, despite current conflicts. Homicide rates in most of the world have declined over the long run. And slavery, in its legally sanctioned form, has been abolished everywhere, though illegal forms persist.
Technology and connectivity are transforming our lives. Over two-thirds of the world's population now has internet access, up from near zero in 1990. The cost of solar and battery technology has fallen dramatically, accelerating clean energy deployment. Diseases once undiagnosable are now detectable and treatable through advances in medical imaging and genomics. Information and educational resources that once required wealth or elite access are now available free to almost anyone with a phone.
Rights and freedoms have advanced. Legal rights for women, minorities, and LGBT people have expanded across most of the world compared to 50 years ago. The absolute number of people living under some form of democratic governance is still far higher than in 1950, even amid recent backsliding, and child labour has declined substantially worldwide since 1990.
The environment record is mixed, but with some genuine gains. Air quality in many wealthy cities is far better than in the mid-20th century. Deforestation rates have slowed or reversed in several regions, including parts of Europe and China. And renewable energy now accounts for a rapidly growing share of new electricity generation worldwide.
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Now here’s the bad news. First, in conflict and security, we have active wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and elsewhere, with fewer diplomatic ways out than in past decades. Nuclear proliferation risks rising again, with more states pursuing or threatening capability. Global military spending is at record highs, while terrorism and armed conflict deaths are higher than the low points of the 2000s and early 2010s.
Politics and governance have seen democratic backsliding in a number of countries, with rising authoritarianism and weakened checks on power in several major states. Trust has been falling in institutions: government, media, and courts across most Western democracies, and there has been increased political polarization, especially in the US and parts of Europe.
There are red flags in economics, with sovereign debt levels historically high across most developed economies. Productivity growth has been stagnant in many Western economies since the 2008 financial crisis, Housing affordability has been worsening in most major cities, and wage growth for younger cohorts is lagging behind older generations at the same age, in several countries.
The down side on the environment has seen rising global average temperatures, with recent years among the hottest on record. There has been biodiversity loss and species extinction rates well above historical baselines. Extreme weather events are reportedly increasing in frequency in some regions.
On the social and psychological fronts, rising rates of anxiety and depression have been reported among teenagers in many countries, correlating with smartphone and social media adoption. Birth rates are declining across almost all developed nations, with implications for pension systems and labour supply. Loneliness and social isolation are reported to be increasing, particularly among young men. And falling religious affiliation without an obvious replacement source of communal meaning has occurred in many places.
Many people think that technology poses a threat. AI capability is advancing faster than regulatory or safety frameworks. Cyberattacks on infrastructure and institutions have been increasing in frequency and sophistication, with disinformation and deepfakes making shared factual consensus harder to maintain.
So, there you have it. Which wins out on balance, the good news or the bad? Note that the good news covers mostly long-term trends, whereas the bad news concerns more temporary, short-term problems. I go with the good news because I’m an optimist.
Madsen Pirie