Carnival does not generate £396 million in economic impact

Sorry, no, we do not believe this:

THE NOTTING Hill Carnival is more than just a celebration of Caribbean culture — it’s an economic powerhouse.

In a study commissioned by The Voice, JN Bank economist James Williams revealed that the total direct or net economic impact of the Notting Hill Carnival is over £396 million a year with significant spending on accommodation, food, shopping, entertainment, and travel contributing to that total.

No, it doesn’t really. As is said later in the report:

“As well as the costs, when calculating the economic impact of events like the Notting Hill Carnival, it is important to account for ‘displacement effects’, the spending that would have occurred anyway if the event had not taken place,” said Williams. “Displacement effects refer to the economic activities that are merely shifted rather than added by the event.

Quite, which is something that isn’t accounted for in that headline £396 million number.

As a rough and ready guide, all spending by those who live in the UK is displacement effect. That money would have been spent on something else if not spent on Carnival. To the extent that foreigners do specifically come to London to watch or take part then yes, that is extra economic activity. No, we do not believe, not in the slightest, that this amounts to £396 million.

Not that this should matter. The point of life is to have a damn good party anyway. Sure, we’ve got to do annoying and boring things like make a living, knuckle down and actually produce things. But as Adam Smith pointed out the purpose of all production is consumption. Having a damn good party is consumption and that’s good enough for us.

True, true, individual definitions of party hardy may or may not include eating, drinking and, well, other ingestions while gawping at lightly dressed youth trying out their dance steps. We think it might coincide with the definitions of a good time for a few though. Which is the justification.

We agree with everyone sensible, GDP isn’t everything, you know? In fact, it’s only a way station along that road to what we really want to do which is to enjoy this life we’ve got while we’ve got it. Which is, of course, the justification for a damn good party.

That this isn’t what strikes some individuals as a good party is, well, chacun a son gout as every sensible liberal also insists.

Tim Worstall