Some commentators have argued that, should voters choose to leave the EU, they will mostly be motivated by an objection to immigration. This would make the EEA Option, which we have argued for, a non-starter, since in order to be a member of the EEA the UK would have to keep freedom of movement.
Others, like Jonathan Portes, have argued that even if a majority chooses to leave the EU, a majority may also wish to remain in the single market. The vote is on whether we leave the EU or not, and even if many leave voters are motivated by an opposition to freedom of movement, they may not be a majority of the country as a whole.
A new YouGov poll, commissioned by the Adam Smith Institute, asked 1,751 people three questions: whether they wanted immigration or trade to be a post-Brexit government's first priority; whether they thought the government should consider a Norway-style deal (i.e., whether it would be democratically legitimate for a government to do so); and whether they themselves would support such a deal.
We found that 54% would support the Norway option, compared to just 25% opposed, and 57% would like the government to at least consider such an option. Voters were split evenly on whether immigration or trade was a bigger priority, though there was not majority support for either.