Supersonic again
Don't hold your breath, but don't write it off either. Supersonic passengers will probably cross the Atlantic again in the early to mid 2030s. Boom's Overture is the only serious contender. It is planned to carry 64 to 80 passengers at Mach 1.7, all in one premium cabin. Boom talks of first flight in 2027 and service from 2029. Analysts expect it to slip into the early 2030s, and they are probably right.
The warning signs are there. Last December Boom turned to building power turbines for AI data centres, using the revenue to bankroll Overture. Scholl still talks of delivering to customers within roughly five years, but admits the engine alone could cost a few billion dollars.
Engines are the sticking point. No established manufacturer would build one, so Boom is building its own. Even United's Scott Kirby, a customer, puts the odds at 50-50. Boeing and Airbus are sitting it out. China's TMS-10 demonstrator should fly by the end of this year, but a test bed is not a timetable.
Washington has cleared the way. A US executive order lifted the overland supersonic ban, and a House panel passed the Supersonic Aviation Modernization Act without a single vote against. That opens American domestic routes. The Atlantic never needed it. Concorde boomed over the waves for 27 years without a single complaint from the fish.
I flew Concorde five times, and I know what it did. It skimmed the cream, taking passengers out of first and business class. But fourteen aircraft could only skim so much. A fleet of a hundred Overtures would take the cream, the top of the milk and a fair bit of the jug.
Premium cabins pay the bills on transatlantic routes. A small slice of the seats earns a big slice of the revenue, and London to New York is the most lucrative route of the lot. Lift out the big spenders and the subsonic jet must live off the back of the plane.
That sounds alarming, but it isn't. The airlines buying Overture are United, American and JAL. They would be poaching from themselves, just as BA did. The money moves to a faster aircraft but stays in the same company, and they charge more for it.
The subsonic fleet would then be refitted. Fewer flat beds, more seats. Denser cabins mean lower costs per passenger, which means economy fares are more likely to fall than rise. The idea that the front cabin subsidizes the back was always overdone. Economy seats cover their own costs. Pack in more of them and the fixed costs are shared more thinly.
The real squeeze falls on business class. It could drift down into a plush economy while the true top end goes supersonic. The traveller who pays full business fare today will find himself courted by neither.
The bigger prize lies outside the airline accounts. London to New York in under four hours turns a transatlantic trip into a day out. Two financial capitals start to behave like one city. Deals are done faster. Lawyers, bankers and consultants bill more hours and sleep in their own beds. Time is the one thing the busy executive cannot buy more of. Supersonic flight sells it by the hour.
A few hotels and lounges would lose out, along with any airline that stays slow. Concorde proved that people will pay handsomely to arrive before they left. The question is whether Boom can build its engine before its backers lose patience. Breaking the sound barrier is the easy part. Breaking even is the hard part.
Madsen Pirie