Accountability Tracker with Charles White-Thomson
This Accountability Tracker reveals that the Government is falling short on many of its flagship economic pledges.
Upon taking office, the Government committed to prioritising economic growth. Yet the Tracker shows it is underperforming on several core economic indicators, including growth, inflation, employment, and housebuilding.
To reach its goal of 2.5% average annual GDP growth by 2029, the economy needs to grow significantly faster than it currently is. Since July 2024, monthly growth has been only 0.09% - compared to the 0.21% it will need to achieve its 2.5% target. Inflation, which the government pledged to stabilise at 2%, has also risen with last month's inflation reaching 3.7%, once the government's time in office is accounted for. The employment rate, meanwhile, remains stuck at 75% - far from the target of 80% by the end of the decade.
Housebuilding is also falling behind. Between July 2024 and March 2025, just 142,800 homes were completed - an average of 15,900 per month. To meet the 1.5 million homes target by 2029, construction needs to ramp up significantly.
While the economic outlook is bleak, the government is meeting its spending targets. The Government has already exceeded its pledge to deliver 2 million additional NHS appointments and mental health staffing is increasing ahead of schedule. Defence spending is also increasing and likely to meet the 2.5% target whilst net migration is also falling, with a 50% drop reported in 2024.
This imbalance, falling short on pro-growth economic reforms while delivering on large-scale spending pledges, raises questions about the UK public finances. Sustained public spending without growth risks entrenching a high-tax, high-borrowing model that stifles innovation. If the government cannot reverse this trajectory, the gap between ambitious spending commitments and the sluggish economy funding them will only widen, undermining the UKs fiscal sustainability.
Ultimately, this Accountability Tracker suggests that more borrowing and tax rises may be on the horizon.
Charles White-Thomson, 19/7/2025.
A little bit more information on the Accountability Tracker …
The Accountability Tracker monitors progress against the Government’s own stated goals, consolidating them into a single framework. Designed to bring private sector-style accountability to public policy, the Tracker provides a clear, data-driven picture of government delivery. It uses the KPI framework, or Key Performance Indicators, to objectively measure whether the government is delivering on its pledges.
The Accountability Tracker is not intended to evaluate the merits of each policy pledge but instead offers a neutral, transparent tool for assessing whether these promises are being met. The ASI will update the Tracker regularly as new data becomes available, providing an independent benchmark for evaluating policy delivery.
Methodology and commentary
Annual GDP: RED
The government, in last year’s election campaign, frequently set itself the target of achieving a rate of 2.5% annual GDP growth by 2029.
In order to meet this target, the government would need to achieve an average monthly rate of 0.21% (compounded), or 0.625% every quarter, in 2029.
There has been 0.87% GDP growth between July 2024 and April 2025, yielding an average monthly growth rate of ~0.09%. Predicted annual growth rate for year-one Labour (July 2024–June 2025) is thus ~1.01%. This is well below the required rate.
Looking to 2029, the IMF’s independent forecast is for GDP growth to only hit 1.4%.
As such, the government is not on track to meet this target.
Methodology
Seasonally adjusted real monthly GDP index from ONS:
July 2024: 101.4012
April 2025: 102.2813
% Change Jul-Apr: 0.87%
Compounded Monthly Growth Rate: (1.0087)^(1/10)-1= 0.086%
12-month equivalent: (1+0.086%)^12 =1.0104 = 1.01%
GDP Growth G7 Ranking: RED
On page 13 of their manifesto, the government committed to achieving the highest level of GDP growth in the G7.
According to the IMF’s independent forecasts, the UK will be beaten by both the United States and Canada in annual growth in 2025 and 2026, putting the UK in third place in the G7. As such, the government is not yet on track to meet this target.
Debt as % of GDP: AMBER
On page 19 of their manifesto, the government set itself the target of having debt as a % of GDP to be decreasing by the year 2029. There is not a fixed target, but directional.
Net public sector debt including the Bank of England is forecast to fall from 96.3% of GDP in FY29 to 96.1% in FY30, up from 95.5% in FY24.
Excluding the Bank of England, debt is forecast to increase from 94.8% of GDP to 95% over FY30.
The OBR’s forecasts show net public sector debt falling between 2029 and 2030 but only if the Bank of England’s balance sheet is included and only by 0.2% of GDP.
Moreover, debt will still be higher in 2030 than in 2024 as a share of GDP.
As such, the data is insufficient to conclude whether the government is on track to meet their target.
Inflation: RED
On page 21 of their manifesto, the government committed to achieving an average inflation rate of 2% (and stable) by 2029.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), as of June 2025, is 3.7% - once the government’s time in office is accounted for. Average CPI under this government has been 2.6%. The trend is upwards.
Net Migration: GREEN
On page 41 of their manifesto, the government committed to reducing net migration over their tenure.
In 2024, net migration was reduced by 50%. At the end of 2023, net migration was 860,000. By the end of 2024, net migration dropped to 431,000.
It is difficult to measure the extent to which this is the result of Conservative or Labour governance, as migration statistics are outlined quarterly, not monthly. Furthermore, migration policy has a longer lag time between implementation and impact.
Nonetheless, the government has presided over a decrease in net migration, and thus meets this key performance indicator. Note that the statistic of net migration does not distinguish between legal and illegal migration.
New homes built in England and Wales: RED
On page 29 of their manifesto, the government pledged to build 1,500,000 new homes in England and Wales by 2029.
That equates to 300,000 homes a year, or an average monthly house-building rate of 25,000.
As of March 2025, the government estimates that 142,800 new homes have been added to the English housing stock since July 2024. That equates to an average monthly house-building rate of 15,900. If Wales is building at the same per capita rate as England, it will contribute 900 for a total of 16,800 homes per month. This is well below the necessary rate.
The average monthly house-building rate needs to almost double to 29,500 (from March 2025) in order to meet this key performance indicator.
Fourth Carbon Budget by 2027: GREEN
On page 58 of their manifesto, the government committed to take action to meet the carbon emission reductions set out via Carbon Budgets in the Climate Change Act 2008 and legally mandated by the Environment Act 2021.
The Fourth Carbon Budget, pertaining to the 2023 to 2027 period, is 1,950 MtC02e (megatonnes of C02 equivalent). That equates to an average annual emissions limit of 487.5 MtC02e.
In 2024, the UK’s territorial emissions were 413.7 MtC02e. As such, the government has presided over a sufficient reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and is thus on track to meet the Fourth Carbon Budget.
Employment Rate: RED
As part of their plan to “get Britain working”, the government pledged to achieve an employment rate of 80% by 2029.
The employment rate under this government has plateaued at 75%. Since July 2024, variation has been low, at 0.2%.
In order to be on track to achieve this key performance indicator, the government must achieve an average monthly growth in employment rate of 0.12%.
Employment Rate G7 Rank: RED
As part of their plan to “get Britain working”, the government also pledged to achieve the highest employment rate of the G7.
The UK is currently ranked third. Japan ranks first with an employment rate of 80%.
To beat Japan’s current performance, the employment-to-prime age population ratio will need to increase by 5 percentage points. Because the employment rate has plateaued, it is unlikely that the government will achieve this target.
New expert teachers: RED
On page 82 of their manifesto, the government stated its aim to recruit 6,500 new “expert” teachers in England by 2029.
We believe there would be inadequate data available to track whether this target would be on track for being met.
The School Workforce Census is published annually each December. Due to the unavailability of granular monthly data on teacher labour, it is unfeasible to accurately model how many newly qualified “expert” teachers have entered the workforce.
We assume that “expert” means STEM teachers, as the manifesto outlines the new teachers to be in “key subjects”, which is colloquially understood to be science and maths subjects with teacher shortages.
We do know:
how many people are undergoing STEM teacher training.
What the average completion rate is.
There are 4,355 STEM teachers in training circa 2024–2025. The completion rate varies between 80–90%.
Due to the unavailability of granular monthly data on teacher labour, it is unfeasible to accurately model how many newly qualified STEM teachers have entered the workforce. Furthermore, the number of teachers in training does not account for teachers hired directly into the workforce from other countries or professions.
In order to be on track to meet this key performance indicator, the government would have to be recruiting 1,300 newly qualified STEM teachers a year (as of July 2024).
However, the government has redefined this key performance indicator over time. Firstly, the label of “expert” teachers was removed in the Plan for Change (December 2024). Secondly, the target will look at overall labour force growth, rather than just Newly Qualified Teachers. Thirdly, only teachers at secondary and college level will be measured. Fourthly, the benchmark of comparison will be the teacher labour census for the 2023–2024 academic year.
In the spirit of key performance indicators, redefining a target beyond recognition is equivalent to admitting that a target is not being pursued. As such, we cannot say that the government is on track to meet their manifesto pledge.
New Nurseries: AMBER
On page 80 of their manifesto, the government committed to the construction of 3,000 new primary school-based nurseries by 2029.
The government has ring-fenced funding for 3,000 new nurseries. Primary schools are encouraged to apply for said funding to build these nurseries themselves.
We have declared this key performance indicator as an “amber” because it is uncertain whether the primary schools will build the nurseries. However, the funding has been ring-fenced, so the programme can be safely said to be progressing.
More NHS appointments: GREEN
On page 95 of their manifesto, the government committed to providing 2 million more ‘NHS operations, scans and appointments every year’.
In order to be on track to achieve this key performance indicator, the government must deliver an average monthly appointment rate of 30,210,000.
(July 2023–June 2024 appointments (360,516,793) + 2 million)/12 = 30,209,732
The government achieved this target early, in February 2025.
There have been 309,934,891 appointments since July 2024, equating to an average monthly appointment rate of just under 31,000,000. The government is thus continuing to meet this target.
More mental health staff: GREEN
On page 91 of their manifesto, the government committed to employing 8,500 new mental health staff in the NHS. That equates to an average growth rate in mental health staff of 157/month since July 2024.
The government has already hired 6,700, yielding an average monthly hire rate of 609/month. The government is achieving this key performance indicator 290% above target.
More police: AMBER
The government has committed to recruiting 13,000 extra neighbourhood police by 2029. We interpret this to mean 13,000 more than the final month of the previous administration (June 2024).
There were 148,536 full-time employees in the police force in June 2024. The target is thus 161,536 by 2029. In order to be on track to meet this target, the government will have to have been achieving an average monthly net increase of 217 FTE officers.
Between July and September 2024, the police force saw a net increase of 401 FTE staff. This works out to 134/month.
This implies that the government is not on track to meet this key performance indicator. However, this calculation only takes into account 3 months of this government’s operation, which is too small a sample size to consider representative of their whole work so far. As such, the data is insufficient to claim whether this target is on track to be met.
The second biannual report is scheduled for release on 23rd July 2025. We will update on 23rd July, when the next police labour census is reported.
NOTE: we are assuming that the target of “police officers” does not include Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs), who lack full police powers.
New Prison Places: GREEN
As part of their 10-year Prison Capacity Strategy, the government has set a target of building 14,000 new prison places by 2031. In order to be on track to meet this target, the government needs to be averaging a monthly build rate of 180/month.
The government has built 2,400 between July 2024 and May 2025. That equates to a rate of 240/month, suggesting that the government is on track to meet this target.
Defence Spending: GREEN
On page 15 of their manifesto, the government committed to spending 2.5% of GDP on defence.
According to NATO statistics, by the end of 2024 the government was spending 2.3% of GDP on defence spending.
In order to be on track to meet this target, the government must increase defence spending as a % of GDP by 0.1% per year for 2 years. This is deeply feasible, and likely to occur. Thus, we believe they are on track to achieve this target.