Dealing with warming
The UK emits about 1% of global CO₂ emissions, whereas countries like China and the US contribute far more (30% and 15%, respectively).
Net zero will come at a cost to UK homes and businesses. Estimates vary widely, but transitioning to net zero will cost hundreds of billions of pounds over the coming decades.
Costs include upgrading housing for insulation and heat pumps, electrifying transport and infrastructure, decarbonizing industry, and investing in renewables and grid capacity
Proponents of net zero claim it will create hundreds of thousands of ‘green’ jobs, but jobs are a cost, not a benefit. They say that the UK and developed nations are expected to lead by example, and should assert a moral leadership to encourage less developed polluters to follow suit.
They point out that the UK is not insulated from climate impacts such as flooding, food insecurity, migration, and economic instability and assert that collective action is essential because global problems require many actors, not just the biggest emitters.
On the downside there are cost of living pressures, with immediate costs to households for such things as heating upgrades. This is difficult during inflationary periods with cost of living increases.
There is the risk of carbon leakage if industry moves to countries with lower environmental standards. The UK’s contribution will be ineffective if others don’t act. UK efforts are meaningless if China, India, and others don’t follow suit.
Some of the costs of net zero for UK households and businesses can be based on credible estimates and recent reports, covering both upfront costs and long-term savings, where applicable.
For UK households, there is the cost of home heating and energy efficiency.
Heat pumps could cost £7,000–£13,000 per home (minus the £7,500 government grant under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme in England & Wales).
For insulating a loft the cost could be £500–£1,000. For a wall (cavity or solid) it might be £1,000–£10,000. For double or triple glazing, perhaps £3,000–£7,000+, and for solar panels: £4,000–£6,000, but they can cut bills by £400–£700 per year)
In transport, the cost of electric vehicles is £20,000–£40,000, though prices are dropping. Charging points cost £800–£1,200 each (with grants available).
For UK small businesses (SMEs), the costs of net zero include energy efficiency upgrades, with lighting, heating, venting and air-conditioning and insulation costs from £1,000 to £50,000+, depending on the business.
Fleet electrification for vans and trucks can be £30,000–£100,000 per vehicle. Carbon auditing and planning costs could range from £2,000–£10,000 for consulting and certification.
For large industries, the costs run into hundreds of billions nationally, including possible hydrogen fuel switching, carbon capture, and process electrification, the substitution of fossil fuel-based industrial and manufacturing processes with electrically-powered alternatives. Some estimates put the cost of industry decarbonization at £20–30 billion/year across all sectors until 2050, equivalent to 1–2% of GDP.
The Government estimate is that UK net zero transition will cost £1.3 trillion by 2050, but that it will generate £1–2 trillion in benefits through energy savings, health improvements, and climate damage avoidance. To some observers these estimated benefits seem somewhat fanciful. The costs are real, and probably underestimated, but the alleged benefits are conjecture, and probably overestimated.
Given the UK’s tiny proportion of world CO2 emission, net zero begins to look like an unnecessarily severe cost to impose on households and businesses, and should be modified to something more realistic and acceptable.
Madsen Pirie