It shows good growth achieved by sensible policies and a willingness to work. It is rising faster than most competitors, and will likely soon overtake many of them, including ourselves, in living standards.
Poland is a strong bet. Few countries have done so much, so fast, from such a low base. In 1994, Poland’s GDP per capita at purchasing power parity was $7,040, less than a third of Japan’s. By 2024 it stood at $51,263, just behind Japan’s $52,039.
The IMF and World Bank expected Poland to pass Japan this year, and the IMF forecasts that by 2030 Poland will also surpass Israel, Spain and New Zealand on the same measure. Twenty years ago Poland stood at 48% of the EU average, but by 2024 it had reached 82%.
It is not slowing much. Poland is expected to be among the EU’s strongest performers in 2026, second only to tiny Malta, and GDP grew 3.9% year on year in the second quarter. Unemployment is about 3%. Britain would give its ears for numbers like these.
The comparison with Britain is sharper still. One estimate has Polish real GDP per capita rising nearly 18% since 2019 while the UK’s rose less than 1%. The same source puts Warsaw’s metropolitan output per head second only to Central London, with Lower Silesia now ahead of Greater Manchester.
And the gains are widely shared. Poland’s Gini coefficient is 30.5, against 35.6 for the UK. Growth has not been bought with gaping inequality.
The foundations were laid early. Balcerowicz’s shock therapy in 1990 freed prices, opened trade and privatized fast. It was painful, but it worked, and it set the tone. Poland chose markets decisively rather than drifting towards them.
Then came prudence. A constitutional cap on public debt at 60% of GDP kept governments honest for two decades. Poland was the only EU economy to avoid recession in 2009. Stability breeds investment, and investment breeds growth.
Taxes stayed competitive. A 19% flat-rate option for entrepreneurs and a low corporate rate for small firms made Poland a cheap place to start and grow a business. Investment zones pulled in manufacturers, and Poland became a workshop for German industry.
People worked hard, saved and studied. A young, educated workforce was willing to move, retrain and put in long hours. Plenty came to Britain, learned, earned, and many went home to build. And Poland builds. It completes far more homes per head than Britain does, and is pressing ahead with roads, rail, a new central airport and its first nuclear power station.
What might Britain learn? Firstly, ask business what to cut. Donald Tusk publicly challenged Rafał Brzoska, the InPost founder, to identify areas ripe for deregulation, and the government committed to 100 deregulatory measures in 100 days. The initiative received more than 16,000 submissions. Britain has tried ‘bonfires of red tape’ before, but always run by officials. Handing the matches to the people who suffer the rules is smarter.
Secondly, build. Britain’s planning system is the single biggest brake on its growth. Poland treats homes, power and transport as things to get done, not things to be debated for a decade.
Thirdly, favour investment over consumption. Poland’s growth has been driven by firms building capacity. Britain taxes capital heavily and wonders why productivity stalls.
Fourthly, keep business taxes simple and low. Small firms respond to simplicity as much as to rates.
Fifthly, value work. Poland has not built a system that makes idleness comfortable. Britain’s rising economic inactivity is a policy choice, and can be reversed.
Some of the gains are catch-up growth. It is easier to sprint from behind than to set the pace, and growth will slow as Poland converges. But Poland made sensible choices and kept making them. Britain once taught the world how to privatize and liberalize. It might now take a refresher course from one of its best pupils.
Madsen Pirie