Private spaceflight is on its way
I was the first person in the UK to book (late last century) a suborbital flight with Space Adventures, the company that flew private billionaires to the International Space Station. Unfortunately, the hardware to take me there was not developed until I was too old to be flown safely. But it did get me to see two thrilling Soyuz cosmonaut launches from Baikonur, just a few hundred yards from the launch.
It was the beginning of private spaceflight, which now dominates the activity. Suborbital flights with companies like Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are already taking private citizens on short trips to the edge of space to enjoy a few minutes of weightlessness and a spectacular view of Earth. These are short, 10–15 minute, experiences, not ‘holidays,’ but they prove the concept.
As for orbital missions, SpaceX has taken private crews on multi-day orbital missions such as Inspiration4 and Axiom Space missions. These are expensive, costing tens of millions per passenger, but they show that multi-day stays in orbit are technically feasible for non-astronauts.
The near future will see private space stations. Companies such as Axiom Space, Blue Origin, and Voyager/Nanoracks are developing commercial space stations that could serve as space hotels once the ISS is retired. Early stays will likely be for researchers or the ultra-wealthy, but they will set the stage for broader tourism. The cost is expected to drop as launch systems become reusable and competition increases, much as air travel evolved in the 20th century.
In the next 10–20 years, it is plausible that wealthy individuals could take week-long orbital holidays. Suborbital space cruises could become a luxury niche market. Companies will start marketing ‘space honeymoon’ or ‘zero-gravity resort’ packages.
But for the average person, affordable space holidays are likely to be decades away. The technical challenges in radiation, life support, cost of launch and safety, mean that it will remain a premium experience for quite some time.
2025–2030 could be the era of suborbital tourism, with the main focus on short, high-cost ‘space experiences.’ Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic will continue regular suborbital flights for private passengers. Ticket prices remain around $200,000-$400,000 per person but may gradually fall toward $100,000 by 2030.
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and Axiom Space missions offer week-long orbital trips for the ultra-wealthy prepared to spend tens of millions of dollars. Axiom’s first private space module will soon begin construction and attach to the ISS, laying the groundwork for future space hotels. Space travel could be like aviation was in the 1920s - exciting, experimental, and exclusive.
The years 2030–2040 will likely see commercial space stations and longer stays, with the focus on orbital tourism and private research missions. When Axiom Station and Orbital Reef (Blue Origin & Sierra Space) become operational, they will offer private accommodations in orbit.
Private astronauts and very wealthy tourists might take 5–10 day stays in orbit. The first corporate partnerships could emerge, for example, film shoots, art projects, and scientific microgravity experiments sponsored by companies.
The prices for orbital stays might drop to $1-5 million per person by late 2030s, and Suborbital trips could become relatively routine, possibly reaching a few thousand passengers per year.
Further on, from 2040–2050, we might see early space holidays, with the focus on space resorts and lunar flyby experiences. Dedicated space hotels, standalone private stations, might open in low Earth orbit (LEO), possibly operated by companies like Axiom, Blue Origin, or SpaceX.
Passengers could spend 1-2 weeks in orbit for leisure, experiencing zero gravity, spectacular Earth views, and basic recreation facilities. Lunar flyby tourism, via SpaceX Starship or its successors, will become possible for a handful of ultra-rich clients; perhaps a 1-2 week trip around the Moon without landing. Ticket costs for orbital holidays may fall below $500,000, though still far beyond ordinary affordability.
Improved radiation shielding, recycling systems, and reusable spacecraft will make longer stays safer and more comfortable.
Beyond 2050 we might see middle-class access to short suborbital flights for a few thousand dollars, and regular orbital tourism, perhaps including romantic getaways or corporate retreats in orbit. Early lunar surface visits will only be for the very wealthy or scientific-tourist hybrids.
Obviously, this will be a major economic activity, one that marks the beginning of thrilling experiences for those wanting to see the planet from the outside, and prepared to spend the money it takes to do that. The role of government will be to get out of the way, not regulating the nascent industry to death, but letting free enterprise and human ingenuity achieve what it can.
Madsen Pirie