Ramping up our defences
Enough on Donald Trump. Since the White House fracas, too many commentators have focussed on the President’s lack of manners. What matters is his “abandonment of Europe” and what the Western democracies will do about it.
The villain is not Donald Trump but Putin, the real dictator who invaded a sovereign European nation. Putin is not a sole operator though; he has close and aggressive friends in Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang. It wasn’t Germany that bombed Pearl Harbour in December 1941 forcing a reluctant USA into WWII. Stepping away from European allies may be a decision that comes back to haunt the USA.
For now, however, the realpolitik is that Europe needs to wake up and rebuild its defence capabilities, fast.
We can no longer depend on help from the USA. They were late coming into both WWI and WWII (the latter held back by huge opposition from the “America First” lobby).
During the Suez Crisis, they sided with a pan-Arab nationalist rather than their allies.
Even at the start of the Falklands war (democracy versus fascism), the US was at first ambivalent.
The US will always act in what it sees as its own interests and Europeans - lulled by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent apparently ‘threat free’ three decades – have been asleep to that fact.
So now it is time for Britain to build a credible defence capability.
We are already the second largest defence exporter in the world with the industry employing a quarter of a million people. Good, but not enough. And what of our steel industry? This strategic manufacturing capability is being whittled away or taken under foreign (and not always friendly) ownership. This needs to be reversed.
The big question is how to pay for an increased defence budget.
The suggestion of setting up a ‘European Rearmament Bank’ is an interesting concept; but it would likely take time we do not have.
The UK is already heavily taxed; adequate defence must be funded from re-prioritisation of existing budgets.
In 2023/24 the UK’s welfare cost £285.7 bn; the defence budget was £54bn. Our priorities have changed. Welfare will be meaningless if we fail to keep our nation safe.
A government with any backbone can easily find savings. Sickness and Disability benefits currently cost £65bn, rising to an expected £100bn within five years. The Minister, Liz Kendall, recently said: “There are people who shouldn’t be on these benefits who are taking the mickey”.
DEI departments should go. HS2 should be stopped. So should the Chagos Island deal. And the costly net zero policies replaced by a focus on affordable energy. If a British government can spend £400 billion fighting Covid, how much more should be spent confronting a danger far more threatening?
A government that removes the winter fuel allowance from the most vulnerable and slices the overseas aid budget is showing that harsh measures can be taken even in a tough economic climate.
We need to persuade our European partners that they too need to rise to the challenge not just with endless tweets expressing support for Ukraine but by re-arming.
They have the money. Like the UK, they too became hooked on welfare in the post-Cold War years. Europe has 7% of the world’s population; 20% of its GDP; and 50% of its social welfare expenditure
The UK has a special leadership role to play, not just because of our unrivalled history of confronting autocrats and dictators - Napoleon, the Kaiser, Hitler - but also because of our early and consistent support for Ukraine.
Action this day.
David Soskin is a former No10 Special Adviser and entrepreneur