Robots and AI will replace cheap, low-skilled labour
Increasingly they will. The real question is whether they can do them more cheaply and reliably than human workers.
Britain faces labour shortages in sectors such as agriculture, warehousing, logistics, cleaning, food processing, and parts of retail and hospitality. Many of these jobs have historically been filled by immigrants.
Robotics and AI are advancing rapidly in automated warehouses operated by companies such as Amazon, in self-checkout and automated retail. There are agricultural harvesting robots and autonomous cleaning machines. They are increasingly used in food preparation and packaging systems, and in AI-powered customer service
For repetitive, predictable tasks performed in controlled environments, automation is becoming increasingly attractive. But some low-skilled jobs are actually difficult for machines to perform because they require dexterity, adaptability, mobility in unstructured environments and human interaction.
Examples currently include such areas as home care, child care, hotel housekeeping, restaurant work and some construction tasks.
A care worker helping an elderly person dress, eat, or cope with confusion involves physical, social, and personal skills that current AI and robotics struggle to replicate affordably.
The UK's biggest demographic challenge is ageing, and the demand for care workers is projected to rise substantially as the population ages. While AI can assist with scheduling, monitoring, paperwork, and some physical tasks, fully replacing human carers is far more complex than automating warehouse work.
If Britain were to restrict low-skilled immigration, three things could happen. Businesses would invest more heavily in automation, wages might rise to attract domestic workers, and some services become more expensive.
This is not necessarily a bad outcome. Countries such as Japan have responded to labour shortages partly through automation and productivity improvements rather than large-scale immigration. However, higher wages and more automation can mean consumers paying more for some goods and services.
Economists often observe that abundant cheap labour can reduce incentives to automate. If employers can easily hire workers at relatively low cost, expensive robotic systems become less attractive. Conversely, labour scarcity tends to accelerate innovation. Britain's industrial history itself contains many examples of labour-saving technology emerging when labour became relatively expensive.
By the 2030s and 2040s, Britain could plausibly require far fewer migrant workers in agriculture, logistics, retail, and routine service jobs. But sectors involving care, personal assistance, and complex physical work are likely to rely longer on human labour, whether domestic or immigrant.
Currently, in New York City, AI companies are sending free cooking and cleaning staff to people's doors. They are gathering data to train the next generation of cooking and cleaning robots, and every inch of people’s apartments is now being recorded. The initiative is part of a growing number of companies developing the next generation of autonomous robots, which tech bosses hope will be able to do everything from the washing up to serving as live-in personal carers.
The indications are that even the complex tasks such as home care and even companionship are coming within the range of ever more sophisticated robots, and this is no bad thing.
The civilizations of Greece and Rome depended on slaves to do the menial work, as did every civilization until the British Empire took the lead in abolishing slavery. We are now headed into an age in which robots will fulfil the same function that slaves once did. Say hello to the Stepford Employees.
Madsen Pirie