The baby drought
There may be several interlocking reasons why UK women are having fewer babies, many of which apply across Western Europe, though the severity and mix differs by country. The total fertility rate (TFR) in England & Wales is down to about 1.41 children per woman in 2024, an historic low.
Alongside that, women are having children later; the average age at first birth is increasing. Declines are steeper for younger age groups (under 30s). Births to women over 30 are declining less, or in some age‐ranges rising, but not enough to offset the overall drop.
The cases of this decline might include economic pressures. The cost of housing is very high, especially for young people. Many delay starting a family because of insecure housing or inability to afford a home suitable for children.
The cost of raising children, including childcare, education, and essentials, is also a concern. Childcare in the UK is expensive, and access in term of both affordability and availability is a constraint.
More women are pursuing higher education, building careers, and often delaying starting a family. Some delays might be due to fertility or health issues or lack of fertility awareness.
But a key factor might be shifts in gender roles and norms because expectations around work, partnership, and parenting are evolving. Many want a better work‐life balance, which isn’t always easy to achieve. People might be having fewer children by choice, with voluntary childlessness or wanting smaller families a contributing factor.
Economic uncertainty, which includes job security, inflation, and the cost of living, discourages plans for more children. And there are broader anxieties such as climate change, political instability, and future prospects, all of which sometimes come up in surveys.
There are policy and structural issues, too. Childcare support, parental leave, and flexible work arrangements are often seen as inadequate in the UK compared with some other Western European countries. Housing affordability or availability of family‐friendly housing is a factor, as are health and fertility factors. Issues such as infertility, and delays in diagnosis of reproductive health conditions can play a role.
Many of the same factors are seen across Western Europe. In the EU in 2023, the average total fertility rate (TFR) was about 1.38 live births per woman, with a range that saw some countries much lower (Malta at about 1.06) and some higher (Bulgaria about 1.81).
Women are becoming mothers later across the EU, with the average age at first child at about 29.8 years. EU reviews of fertility trends point out similar drivers; socio‐economic shifts, prolonged education and career paths, changing norms, postponement of parenthood, gender inequality, etc.
France still has among the higher fertility rates in Western Europe, though it has been declining. Southern European countries (Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal) tend to have lower TFRs, often coupled with very high housing costs, job insecurity for young adults, and weaker support for combining work and family in some places.
Nordic countries often come up in discussions; they tend to provide stronger welfare supports (parental leave, subsidized childcare, more flexible working), and historically their fertility rates have been higher or more stable. But even in some of them, the fertility rate has been trending downward or stagnating.
The UK’s fertility decline is sharper recently, especially among women under 30. Childcare costs and housing costs are relatively high compared to many of the “high‐support” European states. Policy support such as parental leave, child benefits, etc., may lag behind what is offered in some of the higher fertility European countries.
And cultural expectations and norms about when to start a family, how many children to have, etc., have shifted strongly in the UK in recent decades. Unless policies are altered to provide affordable childcare, flexible work, housing, and fertility health, the trend might continue, leading to an ageing population, and a shrinking workforce, with pressures on pensions and healthcare.
Some parts of Europe are trying interventions with incentives such as better family policy, but results are mixed. It’s hard to reverse deeply embedded demographic trends. Some of the birthrate decline might be put down to a culture that is increasingly individualistic. To be a parent can involve becoming a chauffeur, a cook, a child-minder, and limits to a personal life that includes social evenings out, holidays abroad, and membership of interest clubs and hobbies. Women might be increasingly reluctant to surrender their own freedom to the requirements of someone else.
Madsen Pirie