Worthwhile projects
A land link, bridge or tunnel, connecting Northern Ireland and Scotland would enable land transport, road, rail, or both, between Southern Ireland, Northern Ireland, the UK and Continental Europe. It would be a major enterprise, but a worthwhile one.
There are key facts & challenges to be taken account of.
The sea between NI and Scotland includes Beaufort’s Dyke, a trench up to ~200-300m deep, (~3.5 km wide at its broadest) which was used historically for dumping munitions, etc. This might create serious geological, environmental, safety and construction cost complications.
The fixed-link route (bridge or tunnel) would be very long. To do it properly, you also need major supporting infrastructure on each side, including roads, rail, access, etc.
As of the 2021 feasibility study (“A Fixed Link between Great Britain and Northern Ireland: Technical Feasibility”), the estimates were: £335 billion for a bridge, £209 billion for a tunnel. A tunnel is less vulnerable to wind and weather problems, so reckon £200-250 billion
if one found a more favourable route, one that mitigated the environmental and geological problems, had lower material or labour costs, etc., we might imagine some savings, but not huge ones - maybe one could shave off 10-30 % in best-case optimized design.
Another worthwhile project would be to convert some London Underground lines to fully automated and driverless services, like the Paris Metro. We might, for example, convert the Victoria Line, the Jubilee Line and the Piccadilly Line to driverless operations.
Ballpark estimates might spit the cost between £5-7 billion for the Victoria Line (16 stations already have CBTC), £4-6 billion for the Jubilee Line (8 stations already have CBTC), and £9-11 billion for the Piccadilly Line (53 stations, many older platforms would require modification).
The bottom line is that for the Victoria, Jubilee, and Piccadilly lines together, ~£18–24 billion is a reasonable ball-park for full unattended operation, consistent with the FOI-based conclusion of £20 billion+ for a three-line package once London-specific complexities are included.
All three connect to main line overground stations, so the impact of any future strikes would be minimal, and certainly not cost businesses the £250 million a day that the recent strike cost them.
The cost of HS2 has shifted since the scope has changed. In 2019 prices, HS2 Ltd has estimated Phase 1 (London to Birmingham) at £54 billion to £66 billion. Adjusting to more current (2024/25) prices, that could reach £67-£83 billion just for Phase 1.
The final cost could be £100-£120 billion+, especially if there are large overruns at Euston or other station, problems with tunneling, legal and land obstacles, or if further scope (especially “fit-outs”, ancillary works, etc.) is re-added.
One might question the value gained from HS2. It was conceived when travel time was treated as time wasted, but the spread of laptops and wifi has made that no longer true. It seems a great deal of money for relatively minor gains.
On the other hand, a land link between the two Irelands and Continental Europe would bring huge savings in transport costs, and a more automated London Underground system would be less vulnerable to disruption. The recent strike, for example, is estimated to have cost the economy £250 million per day in lost business.
Infrastructure in Europe seems easier to build. I’ve regularly used the Øresund Bridge, a combined railway and motorway cable-stayed bridge across the Øresund strait between Denmark and Sweden. I will certainly use the Fehmarnbelt bridge currently under construction. Once completed, the journey between Rødbyhavn in southern Denmark and Puttgarten in northern Germany, will take just 10 minutes by car, or seven minutes by train, replacing a 45-minute ferry voyage.
There’s a strong case for committing to the investment in a land link to Ireland and to automating key Underground lines in London. Sometimes our legislators need to think long-term and to take bold decisions that will take time to bring results. Life without the Channel Tunnel would be far less convenient than it is now, but fortunately, there was Margaret Thatcher to take that decision in 1986.
Madsen Pirie